Here"s his explanation:
"right now i am ahead of his opening range but almost def behind his 4betting range given he is a solid thinking player. A 3bet will have to be an amount ca 1100 or an all in. I"ll be getting over 2-1 to call if he 4bets me, making a call almost mandatory. I cant raise-fold a hand with as much value as AJ, otherwise I may aswell have total air. Its def +EV to 3bet here or push, since he"s folding so often, and infact I do reraise a decent percentage of the time here. But there are good alternatives which may produce better results.
If i flat call, I have 2670 left. If he cbets I have a good stack to check-raise all in if the board texture is right. If i 3bet pfr hands like AK/AQ are probably going to 4bet me. By flatting, and then C-R all in on dry flops, I can actually get those hands to fold some of the time (inc some small pairs). Check folding would be burning chips.
On the flop, this is exactly the kind of board I was looking for. Alot of his hands now have to fold. Its a rainbow so he cant have big cards with a flush draw. AK/AQ almost def fold to a C-R all in. 22-77 will hate calling with 2 overs on board.
After estimating all his calling ranges, and combining them I figure I have 27% equity. For this play to be profitable, I need him to fold 60% of the time. He"s actually folding much more often than that based on how often he"s raising"
