Heads up, Pair v Pair

[Maxriddles]

I have just bust out again with a big pair all in v a smaller pair who hit on the turn. I know statistically I am 80% favourite in this situation. Since noticing that I was actually 60% with KK v a smaller pair I have paid much more attention to this sort of situation and in the last 4 weeks when I have been against a smaller pair with a dominating pair I have a win rate of less than 60%. I know it is only a small amount of data but it is making me think about how I play pairs especially later in MTTs.

I think it may be a blip in the and in the longer term the balance may be re-dressed and it is not yet effecting my decision making, I know I should be happy that people with 6,6 and the likes are going to go all in after my initial raise when I"m holding AA or KK, but I just can"t help thinking I am doing something wrong as it"s nearly always someone with enough chips to hurt me or take me out, but then again how do you win tournaments if you back off when you have a big hand just because you"re up against the big stacks.

[Philippos13]

as you wrote made i every 5 time you will lose the hand...stats make no mistakes in the long run... one way to approach it is not giving them 5 cards  to out draw you...that is by not trying to get all the chips in preflop allthough sometimes as a short stack u will have no other choice....

[kinboshi]

What"s the sample size of hands you are looking at here?  60% might well be within the standard deviation of what to expect.

If you are "slow-playing" the big pairs and letting smaller pairs catch up on the turn or river (I don"t know if you are or not), then maybe you have to play them harder pre-flop and on the flop?

Saying that, I went out with KK v 85o last night .

The other thing to remember is that tight aggressive players usually go out of a tournament with a big hand.  Very often a big pair or AK.

[swordfish]

Saying that, I went out with KK v 85o last night .

Did you go out to 85o?  You never mentioned it...

[kinboshi]

Saying that, I went out with KK v 85o last night .

Did you go out to 85o?  You never mentioned it...

Well, what happened was...

[duke3016]

Don"t start or i"ll whinge about my QQ v"s 22 (he went all in pre flop) at dtd

[Maxriddles]

If you are "slow-playing" the big pairs and letting smaller pairs catch up on the turn or river (I don"t know if you are or not), then maybe you have to play them harder pre-flop and on the flop?

The other thing to remember is that tight aggressive players usually go out of a tournament with a big hand.  Very often a big pair or AK.

I perhaps should have been a little clearer on the situation I"m referring to. I mean when I or the one opponent I"m against are all in pre flop. It would depend on a number of factors, too many to go into, on how we would arrive at the all in situation, therefore all five cards are coming out.

I do tend to play aces and kings very hard nearly all the time, though if not all in pre flop I have came a cropper a few times when 6, 3 or something hit"s two pair on the flop (how could he call my re-raise of 3 times his initial raise). Any other pair, dependent on the situation and read on opponents, I can comfortably walk away from pre flop if my tournament life depends on it.

Yes, I do normally fall under the tight aggressive banner and do usually go out with a big hand normally after getting my chips in while I"m ahead.

The other post which suggests not seeing all five cards is okay as long as the smaller pair hasn"t hit the flop, if they have all my chips could be going in anyway with me mistakenly thinking I am in front (eg holding, KK, flop J 8 2, I pushed and found I was against 8,8,8.).

I"m thinking like many poker problems there are no or many correct answers to this one.

[Maxriddles]

In the five weeks I have been recording how I"ve got on pocket pair against smaller pocket pair I am now 50% exactly when holding the over pair, losing the last three times in this situation. If luck evens itself out I"m looking forward to a serious turnaround.

A small sample right enough as we are only talking 32 times, I"m still looking at the maths when I play, but plays which I should be very confident about are beginning to make me very nervous.

I am beginning to think about changing my playing of pairs although the maths would suggest I"ve done little wrong. Has anyone else experienced a run like this and did you change how your play, I don"t think I should change mine as the maths says that these 32 times I"ve got my chips in I"ve been an 80% favourite.

[biffa85]

Max, you need to stop looking at this, as you"ll drive yourself round the bend!

"over the long term" IS or can be a VERY LONG TIME!!!!

Do you think that doyle"s stats over his entire lifetime is showing exactly 80% for his pair over pair situations?  It might be, but then again it might not be, but his sample hands would be in the thousands and therefore it WILL be close to 80%

As a poker player results matter, however to be able to remain calm and focused, we should all try to ignore results to a certain degree and focus on just making the correct play.  Putting your chips in as a 4:1 favourite IS a correct play, continued on long enough it will win you chips!

Yes it can"t help but change the way you play to a certain degree.  I used to have a real problem playing a pair of nines, and it got so bad that on several occasions I folded them preflop with no action in front of me!  It was cheaper for me to do this as it was like instant tilt, I couldn"t play them right, always staying with them when beat, folding when I would have won, etc.  I then looked and thought about how I was playing them and adjusted how I play them and value them, now I can play them.

I"m not suggesting you fold your big pairs, but you need to think about how you play them, both preflop and post flop.  You also need to be able to fold them sometimes.

But most of all STOP recording your results with them.  THAT cannot help your game in anyway!

[Maxriddles]

Biffa,

Thanks for your comments, your advice makes so much sense that I"m going to follow it. My stats sheet has been deleted.

Cheers

[Swinebag]

But most of all STOP recording your results with them.  THAT cannot help your game in anyway!

Had a friend who started recording coinflips and thought the world was against him after he won 1 in 23. Gave him exactly the same advice