$200 online tournaments are above what I play but anyway.
The raise OTB is obviously fine, I like the sizing too. The 3-bet does look like he is serious to me. Given that there has not been much action on the table I am giving him credit for a real hand rather than thinking he is 3-betting light. Still you have raised OTB so your range is a bit wider and therefore if he is decent he will have opened his range up a little bit as well.
I don"t often see people doing this with a hand like 88 though so I am going to say as far as pairs go it is 99+ also I would have AK and AQ in his three bet range here. I don"t mind your call as you have a good chance of winning a big pot if you hit a ten and it only costs 360, you also have position of course.
The flop is not great as it does not have a ten on it. We now have a pot with 1080 in it and he bets out half the pot. Given the texture of the board that looks a bit weak to me. I would raise slightly smaller, a min raise will tell you what you need to know here. When he calls this I am putting him on an overpair with a very outside chance of AK or AQ of diamonds (I doubt the draw to be honest but it is possible).
The Ace is an intersting card. When he checks we have the option of either give up or turn our hand into a bluff. Problem is we are not actually suppose to have an ace here either. We now have a pot of 2400 chips and 8240 behind. Would a bet of about 1400 chips work? It might but I just am not liking this spot at all, there are a few aces in his range and he is probably going to check/call with them now. We might fold out JJ, QQ or KK with a bet. We could have Ax of diamonds I suppose. I would check planning to fold on the river unless he makes a really small bet which I would be pretty much forced to pay off.
This early i fail to see what we have to gain by pursuing this any further. Unless he is a complete donkey I dont think we are ahead here, Im not into all these stats and stuff, they hurt me noggin, will let others do that.
It"s not about being ahead is it? It"s if we can get better to fold (nothing we beat calls us).
