Break Even Percentages

[mal666]

incorrect...


$60 Turbo stt 9 man usual 50/30/20 payouts, blinds 300/600 ra50
Hero BB        7550                    
Villain sb       5950
Our sage calling range against a push
BB      43.0%, 22+ Ax+ K2s+ K4o+ Q4s+ Q8o+ J7s+ J9o+ T7s+ T9o 98s
lets take a middle of the road hand k4o and run this through sng wiz
tyT
The x axis is the villains shoving range.

The y axis is how profitable (or unprofitable) it is for you.

When the green line is above the red line it is profitable and you should call. Below and you should fold.
So from this graph we can see the villain needs to pushing around 60% of hands. Here is the Sage pushing range for the villain, 60.8%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J7o+ T4s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+
All good so far, both calcs n graph come up with same result.
But what if the villain is a typical recreational player aka a nit, he wont have heard of sage and his pushing range will more likely be top 35% of hands only, so consult the graph and its now a clear fold! even at 50% of hands your costing yourself $ here.

[noble1]

in your example K4o is a Pi of 30 and the sage R[call a push] makes this correct to call 7bb , in your scenario villain has a R of 10................so this makes it incorrect to call a shove with K4o using the sage system..

[noble1]

here is a good liitle program to use if you so feel........
http://www.anskypoker.com/tools/pokersage.php

[mal666]

in your example K4o is a Pi of 30 and the sage R[call a push] makes this correct to call 7bb , in your scenario villain has a R of 10................so this makes it incorrect to call a shove with K4o using the sage system..

incorrect

[noble1]

don"t be silly , i explained why........5950 stack 600 big blind equals 10bb .. sage is used in 7bb or less ...
what is incorrect?

Here is the Sage pushing range for the villain, 60.8%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q5o+ J2s+ J7o+ T4s+ T8o+ 95s+ 97o+ 85s+ 87o 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+

what on earth are you getting mixed up with? Nash?  this has nothing to do with the sage system, again please read article and you will find it applies to short stacks that are 7bb or less...or look at sage table towards bottom of article,you will notice that the R column only goes up to Seven [big blinds]  if you still doubt then enter your scenario in the link i provided for AnskyPoker.com and it will say ""The Short-Stack/Big Blind ratio is greater than 7. SAGE does not apply. ""

hope this clears things..

regards
noble1

[mal666]

so nash is nothing to do with sage lol, gtfo even yor link has a direct connection

WHAT IS POKERSAGE?

SAGE is a mathematically based unexploitable strategy for very short-stacked heads up no limit based on the Nash Equilibrium Theory.

[noble1]

as i said mal as i am getting sick of your argument , sage is a equilibrium system not a theory and of course it is based upon Nash , the guy changed game theory.. But your scenario given had the short stack at 10bb and you said sage was incorrect...as i said earlier sage does not apply in this as it is used when the shortest stack is SEVEN big blinds or less..
If you feel that you can dis-prove the sage system then feel free to contact Lee Nelson and John Kittock as you might find your the only person in the world who can provide evidence of doing so..

edit - in reply to your comment that my PI was wrong in a different thread? K4o - K=13*2=26 +4 =30 i still make 30 please explain it to me if you make a different sum.
In a earlier post you stated it only works if someone else is using it and to a degree you was correct but offered no explaination..it works ok for most players except very tight or very loose imo all you have to do is adjust eg-the tight player allows us to open up our ranges in raising him because he will fold more than is mathematically correct [and as you briefly say to fold in cases even when the system says call,they are tight as a nats chuff ] against a loose player our raise/call ranges can widen etc etc.But for live play HU imo this would help a lot of players as it is easy to learn,if you think differently then please expand on this...but now we are at a point where a thread on heads up play is needed..I linked the sage article as i thought some might [ty Rio] find it interesting if they had never come across it before..plus it is free  

[WYoung83]

phil gordon explains BEP down to a tee, in his little green and blue books.......read it and weep.

(awsome reading material)

[Noe]

I enjoyed this thread, so thanks.  The Phil Article seems pretty straight-forward, but I am guesing its the mental math part we all get hung up on.  

http://www.netagency.co.uk/keyedin2/mental.html

So perhaps with some basic math practice that woudk get easier.  Some great tip in this thread, so had to break my silence and "thanks guys". 

[Robbiebox]

Noble and Mal, great discussion. Love the Gigabet theory too, will think more about that later.

You both agree that SAGE works against other players who are employing it, however it isn"t the optimal strategy against players who are not using it and are tighter (typically) or looser. Obviously here the push/fold range and calling ranges alter.
Discussion should now focus on what do you think the alterations should be for typical live players. Noble you seem to think that there is not much need to alter far from SAGE, however Mal I get the imprssion you think play should take into account others tendancies a lot more.

Btw although not quite as clear, similar thinking surrounds SB v BB and single limper into BB situations late in the game.

[mal666]

Noble and Mal, great discussion. Love the Gigabet theory too, will think more about that later.

You both agree that SAGE works against other players who are employing it, however it isn"t the optimal strategy against players who are not using it and are tighter (typically) or looser. Obviously here the push/fold range and calling ranges alter.
Discussion should now focus on what do you think the alterations should be for typical live players. Noble you seem to think that there is not much need to alter far from SAGE, however Mal I get the imprssion you think play should take into account others tendancies a lot more.

Btw although not quite as clear, similar thinking surrounds SB v BB and single limper into BB situations late in the game.

Basically if pusher deviates from the Sage range our calling requirements need to be tighter. 4 buyins is sweeter than 2 yo!
btw i re-calcked the above hand on 75/500/1k blinds, villain needs to be pushing 47% of all hands to make k4 a profitable call. If he drops to 40% we are costing ourselves significant %`s of the prizepool.

[smileriraq]

ironically it was after reading part way through gordons little blue book which prompted me to look into BEP in more depth to try and improve my game tho i do subscribe to the view that sometimes you can over think things given the amount of though thats gone into this thread