Ukipt #2

[George2Loose]

What 52 suited? :Z ... And i just think hes a thinking player and ive flatted a 3bet and led out small on turn i must be beating a10/99 etc

Yeh but that doesn"t mean he doesn"t call river. I just don"t think he"s be c/calling turn and river with hands that beat you therefore we can go for value

What hands can he check call with that we beat ?

Let me ask you another question rather than answering this.

Say you sneak a peek at his cards on the turn and see he has pocket nines would you bet river?

Of Course we value bet, safe in the knowledge that his entire range is 99 and we"re a lock, but, thats not the spot we face as detailed itt.

OFC you would. In this instance I am 90% sure I am winning therefore I can bet. What he calls river with is his concern. Rudders"s thoughts about checking back are fine but one of the things which seperates the greatest players from the good ones is there ability to go for thin value when they know they"re winning. Sometimes you can valuetown yourself but in this spot I really think we"re winning enough of the time to put out another bet

Agree totally about thin value and really good players, the bottom line is they can extract thin value because they hand read so well.

This spot is super thin though and I would estimate that his range on the river is very evenly divided between hands that fold / call and win / call and lose.

If he held AhX it would be a great spot for him to check raise bluff the river, and I think Chris is sick enough to make that move tbh.

Given that you are vb"ing here, what size bet George?

Sizing wise I might go for a pot bet here. I generally tend to size things a bit bigger- depends on how much he likes to wear his cape- might just half pot it.

[Swinebag]

given that DRS has folded an overpair already, CD may try and CR this river putting DRS in a tough spot.

I like the check on the river here.

still think you should bet more on the turn though

[TheSnapper]

Sizing wise I might go for a pot bet here. I generally tend to size things a bit bigger- depends on how much he likes to wear his cape- might just half pot it.

Since its so close as to whether we can profitably bet the river here, I think gameflow & history would decide it for me. If I just intuitively felt like I was ahead and he could call lite, that sort of thing.

As far as sizing if we do choose to bet, I prefer a bigger bet as it makes us look polarised. We are supposed to be polarised here and it gives villain added reason to "wear his cape"

[I Q8Holds I]

I dont wanna play for stacks at 25/50 trying to pot control turn probarly should of gone for 1500 but im happy checking river as i rated chris as a good player and it would be a super bad call to call anything worst on the river