easy decision early on? Call or fold?

[deanp27]

I posted this on my other forum and got some interesting answers, just wondered whether some different views would be found on here. I got drawn with my good friend and poker adversary Bas (John Spinks) on this table and got this toughie quite early - easy fold?

Virgin Festival (same structure as APAT)
Level 2 Blinds 50/100
My stack around 11k (10k starting)
Others stacks similar - my oppo had about same as me
Bas is UTG with around 2.7k (his own fault)

I get  qd qs on the button.

I had been fairly quiet early but recently took down 4 pots in the last round and was starting to get involved a bit more. I had not reraised anyone at this stage.

Lady UTG+3 raises to 600 after Bas UTG limps- now this looked odd straight away as she had recently raised much smaller than this with KK (3bb in SB after i had limped) so it helped define her range a bit.

Guy in MP calls 600 (i put him on a mid ace as he had been cold calling alot of raises with these hands).

I raise to 2200 Bas looks at me and folds and lady calls - MP thinks and folds. Pot 5250.

Flop   and Lady pushes her stack of 8250 in.

Call or fold?

any other comments on my preflop also welcome. Also reasons and hand ranges would be useful. Does a lack of a heart in my hand make this an easy fold?

[AMRN]

easy fold - she has either bigger pair, or AK with Ace heart

[deanp27]

easy fold - she has either bigger pair, or AK with Ace heart

what hands you put her on preflop?

I believe her to be a fairly "straightforward" type of player (not bad but not particularly tricky)

[AMRN]

AK - the fact that she had previously raised smaller with KK sugests she is less inclined to want to see a flop with an unmade hand. The flat call of your reraise supports this also.   she certainly doesn"t have AK suited in hearts, but suspect the ace is a heart

[deanp27]

will post more thoughts when i get a few more comments.

[Swinebag]

preflop with that raise - put her on JJ,1010, AK, (cant have AA and KK)

post flop put her on K. dont think she would push with 1010h or JJh or AhKh

You have the made hand but she has many outs (14??) and is a slight favourite.

You have correct odds to call but its your tourney life on the line. A lot of people would fold and preserve their chips for a better spot. I think it depends on your attitude to getting chips early in a tourney. Do you gamble with correct odds, win, double up and start to build a big stack, (or lose and hit the cash tables - where this would surely be a mandatory call - wouldn"t it?)

I think a lot of pros would call here

Its a look at the watch for me here. I"d 50% call, 50%fold.

[UKChamp]

At first thought a 6bb preflop raise shows weakness in that she seems to want limited action, so I put her on TT/JJ. But given that people behind will have a pot of 850 and require a 600 call its not actually a particularly oversized raise at all. So I extend her range to include QQ/KK/AA/AKo&s. I dont subsribe to the fact you should exclude the big pairs because she raised smaller last time (the limper is UTG and she maybe gaining cheap info whilst isolating with bigger raise than before).The problem here is I dont know what the makeup of the table is, is this the kind of raise that will get callers or has the table been slow, in which case it could look weaker?

Your raise however makes the pot 3650, with only 1600 to call.

From her perspective your range is quite wide as you look like you could potentially be looking to pick up the dead money in a squeeze play or isolate with a big ace or medium pair upwards 99>AA.

An interesting point is that she flat called your raise knowing there is still someone to act behind her.  How it affects her range I am not quite sure yet because if she has AA/KK the best move is to actually flat call. Raising gives away too much strength and reduces EV by negating a call from MP with a potentially weaker hand. 

It isnt correct for her to call with any pair below KK because the implied odds are not there with the remaining stacks. She needs to be paid of ahead of 8:1 to call with known under pairs and your stack only offers around 4:1.

At this point I give her the calling range of AA/KK/AKs (the latter being only because the pot odds are favourable). Pairs lower than KK may beat some of her understanding of your range (although many combinations of which fall to a coin toss) but being so early in the tourny and being out of position I discount calling off a third of her stack with QQ/JJ.

The flop push to me looks weak and is probably a mistake. In a sense the only hands that can possibly call that, taking into account the preceeding action, are ones that have her beat or none at all. So its a negative EV move.

Your QQ may indeed be ahead of a funky/odd hand, but I dont see that you are significantly ahead of any of her correct calling range.

If it were later in the tourny then that changes things; as you stack size may dictate a call. But given you still have a relativley deep stack I would be happy to pass here and look for another spot to reraise her in position with a big hand. Maybe even pushing on her with a big made hand/nuts on the flop in a move that looks to agitate her.

[AMRN]

preflop with that raise - put her on JJ,1010, AK, (cant have AA and KK)

post flop put her on K. dont think she would push with 1010h or JJh or AhKh

You have the made hand but she has many outs (14??) and is a slight favourite.

You have correct odds to call but its your tourney life on the line. A lot of people would fold and preserve their chips for a better spot. I think it depends on your attitude to getting chips early in a tourney. Do you gamble with correct odds, win, double up and start to build a big stack, (or lose and hit the cash tables - where this would surely be a mandatory call - wouldn"t it?)

I think a lot of pros would call here

Its a look at the watch for me here. I"d 50% call, 50%fold.

Isn"t that just a horrible situation?? In an online MTT under $50, it"s a call every time..... but in an APAT National, or perhaps something even bigger, it"s probably a fold more often than not. It"s funny how circumstance can influence decisions as much as the cards and play when it comes to calling a coin toss.

[GiMac]

Fold. At the very best I think you are coin flipping here and if not you are virtually drawing dead. I think better places will arise where you can get your chips in.

[deanp27]

some good responses so far, as i thought most people erring on the side of folding.

My initial read preflop was that she had , or AK. I was sure she didn"t have KK or AA as she would have shoved on me preflop and initial raise was inconsistent with her previous raise with KK out of position against me. I do think 600 is an overraise in this situation despite a limper UTG and i dont think she wanted action.

I also think she couldn"t put me on a wide range. She had no reason to think that i was squeezing or reraising light as i had no previous form of this, plus it would be a ballsy move with such early position action in the hand.

Her flat call of my reraise more or less confirmed that my initial range was pretty bang on.

But as stated, even if i have her range spot on this is still a tough spot. I could be flipping here. I have the pot odds to call but should i turn down these spots and look for "better spots" with my 8k stack - i think this is at the crux of the analysis really.

[UKChamp]

some good responses so far, as i thought most people erring on the side of folding.

My initial read preflop was that she had , or AK. I was sure she didn"t have KK or AA as she would have shoved on me preflop and initial raise was inconsistent with her previous raise with KK out of position against me. I do think 600 is an overraise in this situation despite a limper UTG and i dont think she wanted action.

I also think she couldn"t put me on a wide range. She had no reason to think that i was squeezing or reraising light as i had no previous form of this, plus it would be a ballsy move with such early position action in the hand.

Her flat call of my reraise more or less confirmed that my initial range was pretty bang on.

But as stated, even if i have her range spot on this is still a tough spot. I could be flipping here. I have the pot odds to call but should i turn down these spots and look for "better spots" with my 8k stack - i think this is at the crux of the analysis really.

I agree, I think generally we all say the same thing.

Re above:

1. Would she really push preflop AA/KK - how is she going to get paid - with bet, call, raise, reraise - what can call that? AA/KK?

2. Do people bet in the same way all the time?

3. To me putting somebody on a squeeze is more led by situation than past performance. If anything, the fact you havent before gives your more credibility and scope to try it. I for one wouldnt instantly put you on a tight range.

[biffa85]

Her flop push screams at Ahkos.

[deanp27]

Her flop push screams at Ahkos.

it does - therefore do you call?

[biffa85]

It really depends on whether you are willing to take the bet to get a large stack, or would rather fold and preserve a reasonable stack.  I would agree that calling is a pos EV move, but does entail risk, folding no risk.

Personally I would probably fold most of the time in this situation, as I"m sure even with this hit you can rebuild your stack in better positions.

[deanp27]

by the way I called for 5250 (leaving me 175 chips  )

she flipped  ah  kd

Turn  tc
River  :as: boo



then it was the first break. I went out the hand after.

I also think the ridiculous way that they proposed to use the sit-out"s stack (they changed their mind about 3 times) also put me on a bit of tilt.

I posted the hand for a number of reasons:

   * Analysis of hand ranges
   * Pot odds/equity against those ranges
   * Reasons for folding/calling based upon the above
   * Issue of gambling tourney life so early by CALLING
   * I can"t stop bloody thinking about it

The people at the table thought i made a great call, but i am not so sure, even though i love having a big stack.

i am happy with my preflop play and my read of her range - but still not sure about my call.... still swaying on the side that i did do the right thing and the fact that i am being results orientated perhaps?

I think i would call in a cash game much quicker (stacks were equivalent) and also online, but that fact was i came along way to go out so early.

should these other factors other than the fact it was a +EV call be so major?