Pocket 3's to a 3bet

[mporter123]

I think an open jam is probably the best option on reflection.

In the hand he did 3bet me and I pretty much insta jammed. I had that plan before I raised initially but it was a pretty flawed one as once he 3bet, I had next to no fold equity.

The spot would probably be more interesting if we were in the 22-30bb range - not sure how much we can profitably jam here.

[AMRN]

I think an open jam is probably the best option on reflection.

Thing is, the blinds and antes will amount to around 2.5xBB, and by open jamming, you"re risking 19x to win that 2.5x.  If you wait for a spot to shove over someone who has opened to 2.5x already, you"re risking 19x to win 5x - double the return.   Better still, if there is a raiser and a caller or two, your 19x squeeze shove could be picking up 7.5x or 10x - significantly better than 2.5x in the OP.

By open jamming 19x with 33, chances are you either win 2.5x, or lose the lot, but you will never be in a strong position to double up unless you get lucky with the board - you only dominate 22 and any x3 hands, none of which are likely to call your shove. If called, you have to hope he has unpaired overcards, and that you win the flip. 

imo there are much better spots to shove your stack, and with 19x, the urgency is not critical.

[TheSnapper]

Thing is, the blinds and antes will amount to around 2.5xBB, and by open jamming, you"re risking 19x to win that 2.5x.  If you wait for a spot to shove over someone who has opened to 2.5x already, you"re risking 19x to win 5x - double the return.   Better still, if there is a raiser and a caller or two, your 19x squeeze shove could be picking up 7.5x or 10x - significantly better than 2.5x in the OP.

By open jamming 19x with 33, chances are you either win 2.5x, or lose the lot, but you will never be in a strong position to double up unless you get lucky with the board - you only dominate 22 and any x3 hands, none of which are likely to call your shove. If called, you have to hope he has unpaired overcards, and that you win the flip. 

imo there are much better spots to shove your stack, and with 19x, the urgency is not critical.

Assuming a wide 15% calling range ( I would suspect at least one of sb & bb maybe both are calling a lot tighter though )

55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A8o+,KQo

cEV for jamming is +1491, that"s a whopping 19% ROI.

The better spot you speak of may or may not arrive and so is hard to quantify. The aggro table captain dynamic limits our options and is also somewhat likely to tighten the other players ranges too. If that is the case then any light resteal will be against tighter opening ranges and the resultant loss in FE will dramatically affect the EV of restealing.

Folding is ok tbh but unless our table is likely to close shortly we really can"t afford to miss any of the the rare opportunities that come our way. We have all too few options and those options lessen as our stack creeps from 20 bb"s towards 10 bb"s, next level we will have a 13 bb stack so urgency is definitely a factor.

[AMRN]

Thing is, the blinds and antes will amount to around 2.5xBB, and by open jamming, you"re risking 19x to win that 2.5x.  If you wait for a spot to shove over someone who has opened to 2.5x already, you"re risking 19x to win 5x - double the return.   Better still, if there is a raiser and a caller or two, your 19x squeeze shove could be picking up 7.5x or 10x - significantly better than 2.5x in the OP.

By open jamming 19x with 33, chances are you either win 2.5x, or lose the lot, but you will never be in a strong position to double up unless you get lucky with the board - you only dominate 22 and any x3 hands, none of which are likely to call your shove. If called, you have to hope he has unpaired overcards, and that you win the flip. 

imo there are much better spots to shove your stack, and with 19x, the urgency is not critical.

Assuming a wide 15% calling range ( I would suspect at least one of sb & bb maybe both are calling a lot tighter though )

55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A8o+,KQo

cEV for jamming is +1491, that"s a whopping 19% ROI.

The better spot you speak of may or may not arrive and so is hard to quantify. The aggro table captain dynamic limits our options and is also somewhat likely to tighten the other players ranges too. If that is the case then any light resteal will be against tighter opening ranges and the resultant loss in FE will dramatically affect the EV of restealing.

Folding is ok tbh but unless our table is likely to close shortly we really can"t afford to miss any of the the rare opportunities that come our way. We have all too few options and those options lessen as our stack creeps from 20 bb"s towards 10 bb"s, next level we will have a 13 bb stack so urgency is definitely a factor.

Agree that we need to get a move on here.... but is 33 really the right hand?  What about middling suited connectors? 78s perhaps?  That"s in better shape than 33 if called by an overpair.    Given that we don"t actually want a call here (hence the 19x open shove), our hand is nothing more than a bluff.... and imo it"s way better to bluff with 78s than 33.

[TheSnapper]

Agree that we need to get a move on here.... but is 33 really the right hand?  What about middling suited connectors? 78s perhaps?  That"s in better shape than 33 if called by an overpair.    Given that we don"t actually want a call here (hence the 19x open shove), our hand is nothing more than a bluff.... and imo it"s way better to bluff with 78s than 33.

We"d obviously much prefer the "right hand" but we don"t have the luxury of waiting for that rare occurrence. as far as the merits of 78s over 33, the sums disagree with your opinion.......

cEV for jamming 78s is +1081 so it would be equally correct to jam either hand in this spot but 33 will yield a greater return.

Is it a bluff? maybe, obviously we don"t really want a caller but our hand has value versus the calling range and the EV is an aggregate figure of the times we are called and win +1788, called and lose -1452 and obviously not called and pick up the blinds and antes +745.5.

[noble1]

[pokerpops]

Where does that calculation come from please Noble?

Be a really handy app...

[noble1]

Where does that calculation come from please Noble?

Be a really handy app...

http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=9161.msg149317#msg149317

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/sheets/openshove.html