Suited Board

[dwh103]

Thanks noble,

In my mind I"m dead to A2-A7 and Q9 of diamonds. Would expect him to 3bet A9+ pre, especially in his current mindset. I"m 50/50 on him 3betting wider (especially the Aces with wheel kickers).

I have outs vs all suited connectors and suited one-gappers, say 76 down to 43, and 97 down to 53 and I"m ahead of 88 and 77.

Pot is £77 before I make my turn decision to call £40 more. Assume he has £125 back and a river diamond shuts one or both of us down (i.e. neither loses any more money):

Vs "dead" hands (7 combos). Go broke on non-diamond river (-138.75), otherwise lose turn call (-6.36)
Vs smaller flushes (9 combos). Go broke on non-diamond river (-138.75), otherwise win turn pot on diamond river (12.25)
Vs set (6 combos). Go broke on paired board (-37.5), win turn pot on diamond river (12.25), win on blank river (101.25)

Then against his strength-only range my EV is -£77.19. If I give him a wider 3betting pre range (50/50 he 3bets Ax suited) then it"s a little better -£66.47.

Main difference is I"d give him a wider combo-draw range of 99, QJ, K9, Q9, J9, T9, 98, 97 and A2-A8, all with a diamond. His turn raise is greater than pot, and to me it"s clearly setting up a river shove - it doesn"t make me feel he"s trying to get value with a made hand.

EV calcs I"ve made (had to bring out Excel now) show that if he 3bets this range on the turn 100% of the time, and bluff jams 0%, my EV against these hands is £55.99. Applying the same logic for Ax hands as above in respect of 3betting pre makes a little positive difference to my EV. If he bluff jams 10% of the time it"s break-even for me to continue from the turn.

If he bluff jams 100% of the time, then Villain needs to have this range or air ~40% of the time for me to break even.

Just going by combos, the ratio of made hands to draws is approx 1:2. If that"s a fair range and we"re assuming an even distribution he"ll need to bluff jam river 41% of the time for me to break even. Realistically his range is possibly a bit tighter, but I do expect him to jam river more often. And for all the numbers there"s a load of assumptions that could be completely wrong - I"ll try and speak to the guy!

Having gone through all that I think it"s pretty close either way - less profitable than I thought at the time certainly. Overall I have no major issues given the Villain and the metagame involved.

Finally - your guesstimates were pretty decent - congrats!

[noble1]

from a fresh perspective point of view, questioning your logic about villains distributions [good word that, well used DWH ] and how un-even they could be possibly? you noted him 3-bet folding 60% of his stack on a Q85 vs an opponent who obviously had it..  does it in your opinion increase the percentages of him playing a made flush fast on this board texture on reflection?
plus factoring being in that grey area of reverse equity, your range [or perceived range] and how u could play it against this villain type [at these levels] on the whole in the long run... see below....

Agree with Rob that I"m playing the hand like I"m ahead all the way, and at the time I had Louis" thinking that he wouldn"t 3bet the turn with the made flush as my range is relatively weak. Surely he can"t expect to get too much value.

However with my range polarised a 3bet from him does make sense if he thinks I could be on a combo draw. His range can be uber wide if he thinks I"m weak and setting himself up for a river shove on a blank. Bet sizing made me think this was coming.

So I flatted the £55 as per Rob. He then jams blank river, I call.

RE - a hand that/which won’t improve versus a suspected draw....
hence the reverse equity grey area question:) and all those possible 46 river cards and the %"s of villains actions with the range u was putting him on, so possibly a re-think on how u play your range [or perceived] through the streets in the future, what tweaks in your ranges and bet sizing could u make [if any] to make this more +EV....?? with your current range and how u played it in this spot, could u ever contemplate folding to the turn 3bet??

if u are seriously ramping up your cash game then i"d suggest u thinking about investing some of your profits in the cardrunnersEV calculator, but only if u are really getting deep on the review side of things..

its a bloody good hand/situation to review and reflect on fella [i hope u never play on my cash tables ]