Deal or No Deal

[Sugarnes]

Ok - Serious stuff!  This was on tv in a pub I was at last week and was having a chat with a friend about it - well specifically the 2-box situation at the end.  Option starts with you having a simple choice of opening your box or taking the banker"s offer, sometimes when you choose to open box you then get given the option to switch.

For the first (personal circumstances aside) I argued - trying to think it through like poker - that you virtually always have the right odds to open the box because the offers I"ve seen were always less than splitting the difference

Suppose there are 2 boxes left 1k and 5k and you get offered 2.5k, my simple brain says you"re being asked to gamble 1.5k for a possible 4k win with 50/50 odds...but I"m rubbish at stats so am I right?  

The other point is.taking learning from cinema.[always a reliable source (partic for history)]..you have to switch, right??

[Chipaccrual]

I don"t think I have ever seen a deal offered on this programme that wouldn"t be +ev to a poker player  

[AAroddersAA]

You already have 2.5K (you can take the offer) so you are gambling 1.5K to win 2.5K.

In this situation I would look at it as simple EV

If you take the offer 100 times you win 2.5K 100 times so you ahve an expectation of 2.5K per game
If you open the box 100 times your expectation is to win 1K 50 times and 5K 50 times which is an expectation of 3K per game

So yes it is +EV to open the box. In this situation I probably take the money though

[AAroddersAA]

Knowing this is useful when playing the fruit machine or quiz machine though.

[AMRN]

It"s funny how often I watch this programme, and apply the maths to it, screaming at the tv that surely you have to go one way or other, based on what I perceive to be appropriate odds.

Your example of £1k and £5k with a £2.5k offer is realistic, and I would also take the gamble in that spot for the reasons you state...... however with exactly the same odds in play, would you take the very same gamble if the boxes were £1 and £10k, with an offer of £4k (gamble £3,999 for an additional of £6k with odds  of 1:1 very much in your favour). Or how about £1 and £100k, with an offer of £35k.

The value of the money, and it"s potential impact on your life status, has a huge impact on the size of your testicles at the time of recognising that the odds of the gamble are in your favour. Amazing how the favourability of identical odds can shift dependant on the values at stake.

[Santino67]

I"ve applied 5 times and still not had an audition, that"s definitely no EV  

[Quasar]

I"ve applied 5 times and still not had an audition, that"s definitely no EV  

I got through to the final audition then blew it. That"s worse believe me!

[WYoung83]

Steve i would easy take the 35k in your example. it may not be EV but you are only in the seat once, and 35k is a lot of money to me. If stakes were smaller like 1k-10k boxes with offer of 4k them im gonna say no deal. Its almost like an ICM decision when laddering on a final table.

[Sugarnes]

No doubt.  I disregarded to focus on ev thoughts but the personal impact on you individually has a dramatic impact on decisions.  Similarly if I"m in a $5-10 tourney I"m up for taking risks around bubble time to build a stack, were I in WSOP main event min cash would be major score for me.

The other bit is the changing the box thing once you"ve decided to open...taking my learning from cinema (a risk endeavour)...you are overwhelmingly better off swapping right?  

[WYoung83]

I dont think swapping matters. Its still a 50-50.