Call or fold $30 cubed Stars

[Erimus]

Thoughts on the following hand please, call or fold.

I dont have any stats on villain, my holdemmanager not working but his only move has been all in which given his chip stack is fair enough, he has pushed last couple of hands and has met no resistance.
As seen i min raise the button, he shoves, call and win gives me a chance of at least final tabling, call and lose back in the pack.


PokerStars Hand #83781666983: Tournament #589957567, $30+$3 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIX (625/1250) - 2012/07/24 16:05:27 WET [2012/07/24 11:05:27 ET]
Table "589957567 6" 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Arnie_D (70931 in chips)
Seat 2: 2lazy4you (27418 in chips)
Seat 4: erimus14 (62267 in chips)
Seat 5: milldollbaby (84571 in chips)
Seat 6: suslik787 (20959 in chips)
Seat 8: zoomer12112 (32752 in chips)
Arnie_D: posts the ante 150
2lazy4you: posts the ante 150
erimus14: posts the ante 150
milldollbaby: posts the ante 150
suslik787: posts the ante 150
zoomer12112: posts the ante 150
milldollbaby: posts small blind 625
suslik787: posts big blind 1250
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to erimus14 [ ]
zoomer12112: folds
Arnie_D: folds
2lazy4you: folds
erimus14: raises 1250 to 2500
milldollbaby: folds
suslik787: raises 18309 to 20809 and is all-in.

Call or Fold.

[lucasj37]

I call as he is shoving worse often enough and we can afford to take a race.

[duke3016]

Drop the fossil tag and call his sorry ar$e  

(then pray that the gnomes deep in the bowels of PokerStars look kindly on your race)

[TheSnapper]

For 20 bigs I fold, versus a wide range of any A, any pair, and any two broadway we are taking slightly the worst of it. It"s very close though especially for only 33% of your stack.

It boils down to whether you want to take the higher variance route, if you figure to have an edge over the field thats not good and conversely, should you be of lesser ability than the field, grasp the variance since a flip is not giving away any edge.

[Erimus]

In this spot I would normally fold and find a less high variance spot, in this instance I called mainly because of his constant shoves, wasn"t a tilt call, I just felt it was right and could afford to take the hit plus if I win the hand it gives me more chance of winning it, something which I need to get in my game as I am becoming king of the min cashes at the moment.

Unfortunately he showed up with A 10, I binked the K on the flop hurrah, he binked the A on the turn, boo.

I then went card and spot dead and eventually bubbled the final table for $174.

Considering this was a $30 cubed the standard was pretty dreadful, I didn"t even need the add on and rebuy because had double the average due to some gifts from a couple of generous Russians.

I do normally take any add ons or rebuys in these types of games but thought I was ok to go deep with the stack I had accumulated.

Ger, have to keep that Fossil image in tact, still get people open folding QQ to my reraises lol, ty for the input.

[Swinebag]

Its not 20 bigs - more like 16 or 17. I struggle to fold here given what you say about villain, though folding is far from terrible.

lose this hand and you are still in decent shape

[George2Loose]

This is very much image dependant ie I"m never folding

[deanp27]

Not folding and I"ll have made my mind up to raise/fold or raise/4bjam vs SB and raise/call vs BB in all probability

[AMRN]

Not folding and I"ll have made my mind up to raise/fold or raise/4bjam vs SB and raise/call vs BB in all probability

^This. 

both calling and folding are probably fine - but know what you are going to do before you enter the hand in the first place.

[Erimus]

Cheers for the replies, was always calling big blinds shove if the small blind shoves or reraises might have to think about that one,gotta win those flips at the end. It"s easier to play with 100 bigs if you get them.

Been running deep in a few lately just need the rub of the green at the end.

[TheSnapper]

Calling or folding are really close, but this guy is gonna give us lots of opportunities to get it in a big fav, does taking a flip with him throw away our edge?

It is only 33% of our stack and he is somewhat likely to give it all back pretty soon if we do double him up, anyone consider that a factor?

You mention he had shoved a lot, were any of the other shoves 3b"s?

In this spot I would normally fold and find a less high variance spot, in this instance I called mainly because of his constant shoves, wasn"t a tilt call, I just felt it was right and could afford to take the hit plus if I win the hand it gives me more chance of winning it, something which I need to get in my game as I am becoming king of the min cashes at the moment.

This is kinda contradictory, you would normally fold theses high variance spots but called because of his constant shoves.

He needs to be shoving super wide for this to any better than a flip.

against: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,94s+,84s+,74s+,64s+,54s,A2o+,K2o+,Q4o+,J6o+,T7o+,97o+,86o+,76o
which is 65% of hands we have 60%

but we are more likely facing: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
~28% of hands and we have 48% versus that more likely range.

If you decided to call for reasons other than....

I"m well ahead of his range. ( That would be a misread imho )
I can afford to flip for a third of my stack and I need to embrace some variance.

Then it was more likely a tilty call cos he irritated you somewhat.

[hi_am_chris]

Also there is a possibility he may three bet smaller with the very top end of his range to induce?

[noble1]

the only thing i"d add to the thread is that villain has presumably open jammed utg and utg1

he has pushed last couple of hands and has met no resistance.

into some big stacks..
with this in mind if we [as a big stack and whatever image] when we raise the button, considering his last 2 jams and your stack etc etc blah blah i wouldn"t instantly assume a really wide jam range.. plus he"ll be able to shove unopened pots again from maybe the sb or btn in the next 2 hands...

all on what assumptions u were making at the time [game dynamics etc etc blah blah ]

[mal666]

Call.

Take the rb before a card is dealt too. Take the add on.

[AAroddersAA]

The fact he has pushed the last couple of hands with no resitance actually make it MORE likely he has a hand this time imo. Unless he has been doing this all the time.

Assuming he is a standard level Pokerstars player (which may be incorrect) I am assigning him the range of 66+,A8+,KT+ I don"t see he is doing this with JT or QJ types of hand too often. AK and AQ are actually a big part of his range, which may make a difference. So going with that pretty tight range we have 46%.

Blinds and Ante in Pot = 2775
Initial Bet = 2500
Shove = 20809

Total chips in pot = 26084
Total to call = 18309

Win pot 46% of time
Lose pot 54% of the time

46*26804 = 1232984
54*18309 = 988686

So long term we make 2442 chips per hand if we call. So calling is +cEV. So it looks like a call, not sure if ICM consideratiuons change this but don"t think they do in this spot.

Brendan whats the reason behind folding here mate? When I looked at it initially I thought it was a fold but then did some numbers and it looks like a call now. I should add I an hung over today so could be talking rubbish :-)