Aces facing decisions post flop Stage 2.

[pokerpops]

If you haven"t seen the original post please have a look there before reading on.

http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?topic=12018.0
To recap for those who have responded on stage one..

£100 FO
49 entries
22,000 starting stack
Level 5 150/300/25

Villain 1 utg - 50,000
Villain 2 cutoff - 20,000
Hero SB - 24,000

History - Villain 1 is a local regular who both Villain 2 and I see as a target. He"s hit a lot so far today including a flopped straight when he raised 64 from utg and called a 3 bet from Villain 2...
Villain 2 is likely to be calling light.
I"ve been very active thus far and my image may be more aggressive than it could be. I"ve actually had a lot of premiums. QQx2, KKx2, AA and a lot of AK/AQ so my 3bet stats are pretty high. I haven"t tangled much with Villain 2, other than having 3bet KK from the blinds and made a delayed c bet  on an AKx9 board. He folded, accusing me of having a set of nines...

utg raise to 700
folds to cutoff who calls
I 3 bet to 2425 with   (views on raise size?)
Villain 1 thinks for a while, then calls.
Villain 2 calls pretty quickly

Flop

I lead for 3300 (views here too - is open shoving an option?)
Villain 1 makes it 7000
Villain 2 calls

Back to me...



So - and I"m not happy about this, but I flat called the raise. (potential stakers look away now). tbf it was an extra 3700 into around 25000 with potential outs to the second nuts and a chance that it would slow down on the turn...

Turn was  
I check,
Villain 1 leads for 7000
Villain 2 shoves for 10200

Back to me and all options are open again

call/shove/fold?

[Paulie_D]

As played, I fold...

...but the flat call was horrible.

[AMRN]

The 10 is somewhat inconsequential - can"t really see either of them have Q9, 79, or TT in this spot.

10k to win ~47k - not sure I can fold now.

There"s a good chance we"re dead to the All-In V2 at this point, but could still be ahead of V1 - trouble is that if you shove now and V1 folds, you lose the entire pot to V2.... so perhaps a smallish re-raise to create a side pot against V1 that you can then shove into on the river for value?


btw - hate the call

[George2Loose]

Don"t hate the call. Fold now though

[dwh103]

A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.

Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.

Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.

[George2Loose]

A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.

Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.

Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.

Elaborate

[dwh103]

A call can be ok if you have a solid read that one or both opponents are drawing and pot committed on the turn. You can then flat and get it in on a non-spade turn. You still get the same value, but save chips if you fall behind.

Of course you have the As, so your read would need to be perfect - and I don"t think it can be in this spot. Turn decision would be marginal given you"d have up to 9 outs.

Back to the hand. Nothing has changed, a fold here is dreadful given your flop call.

Elaborate

Based on you"re calling the flop in the assumption you"re ahead. No spade has turned and effectively nothing has changed. 97, Q9 and TT get there ofc, but in a bet+raised board these are a distinctly small % of the range you"re up against. Its too narrow a range to suddenly hero fold against unless other info (tells etc) has presented itself.

Personally I"ve already shoved or folded (my pref) flop. If I do call, it"s specifically to pass on a spade turn. Therefore I call again here.

[AAroddersAA]

As played, I fold...

...but the flat call was horrible.

Why?

Nothing has changed from my post on the last thread. If I have somehow ended up here I still think I fold. Really though if I called the flop I should call this turn I suppose.

[George2Loose]

Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.

We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn

[dwh103]

Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.

We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn

Not flawed at all. But I was on my iPhone in the middle of a tournament so maybe the point I was making didn"t come across right. The fact that "nothing has changed" is based solely on maths and that your turn decision should be trivial as this hand is decided on the flop.

The stacks are far too shallow to play through the streets - there is little to none extra information gained on the turn as a result. A bet goes in on the turn - so what? This should not come as a surprise and future chip investments should be factored into the flop decision making.

Assuming a 9 handed table, on the flop you"re calling 3700 into 25100, or 6.8:1 express odds. But this isn"t the end of the action, so you can"t use this figure for meaningful calcs in this situation. Better to assume that Villain 2 is all-in (he has 50% of his stack in the middle, after a bet and a raise on the flop - a fair assumption to say he"s committed). You"d have to call 13900 into 35300, or 2.53:1.

Oddwise:

Best case scenario) You make the call on the flop, no more money goes in and you go to showdown. You get 6.8:1 on a call that is the last action, and you"d need to win the pot 12.8% of the time to break even.
Worst case scenario) You make the call, Villain 2 jams turn 100%. This is effectively giving you 2.53:1, or you"d need to win 28.3% to break even.
Actual scenario - and most likely scenario imo) Both Villains get it in on the turn. If you all get Villain 2"s stack in you"re now investing 13900 into 45500, or 3.27:1. If you get your extra 4k in vs Villain 1, it"s 17900 into 49500, or 2.76:1.

Your true odds lie somewhere between best and worst, but I think we can agree that we can expect significant further action. If you allow for that in your odds calc your final odds will likely be in the region of 2.5:1 - 3.5:1 (very generous estimate for the upper bound).

Why call flop? Because Hero thinks he"s ahead/a call is sufficiently +EV - If you call flop, where you can estimate the true odds on your money as above, and then fold the turn where:

- only 3 hands have overtaken you, none of them likely.
- it"s impossible to narrow down ranges further on the turn given stacks are so shallow.
- Villain 2 is committed, future action being relatively easy to predict, and...
- you"re getting better odds on the turn than you realistically were on the flop.

That"s what I mean by dreadful. The maths hasn"t changed from flop to turn, the range of hands beating you has barely changed. The reason you called on the flop hasn"t actually changed.

[TheSnapper]

 a couple of observations,

3 bet pots tend to play out reasonably honestly.

Multiway pots with Villain1 type players also tend to play out in a straightforward manner.

Villain2"s cold flat of the flop check raise is super strong on that wet flop, assuming he is somewhat competent.

As far as the maths, on the turn we need 18% - 22% to breakeven, villain1 check raise reps lots of strength yet villain2 flats for a large % of his stack leaving slightly more than a pot sized bet behind. Are their really many hands we beat in his range given preflop action?

It"s tough to range villain2 wide enough for calling to be correct, he"s basically got to have at least some potential for QQ or AJ in there so as to price us in.

Villain2"s line really looks like JJ to me, again, assuming he is somewhat competent. Tough spot!

[noble1]

wow you"re in a pickle here David

plenty of replies to get you thinking fella, my tuppence worth is more aimed at how you arrive to your reads and how you plan out your lines of play.. BUT rather than write an essay watch this video more than once - http://www.flopturnriver.com/poker-videos/NL-Holdem-Poker-Video-NHC023.php

approx 26mins in when Sauce has 77, listen out for his thoughts on making and planning his intended plays from the flop..
watch the whole video because he nearly goes through every basic concept in poker lol plus explains his thought process and how he applies them really well... there"s another observation somewhere in the video in how he arrives at assuming the level of thinking of opponents [then the opponent clears off lmao]
yes i know its cash but i think a lot of mtt players can benefit from playing cash games well

on the hand if i haven"t a clue where i am then i"d mostly bet fold flop and every so often do the occasional bet 3bet jam if my gut thought something was up  mostly fold though especially if i think i can pick up chips in other ways

[AAroddersAA]

Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.

We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn

I think in game I can fold the turn a lot easier than I can fold the flop. Which kind of backs up what George has said here.

But should we not have been pretty much expecting this to happen when we called the flop? Should we not be calling intending to stack off or folding on the flop?

I so confused *lol*

[pokerpops]

Some really good replies here. Thanks all. dwh"s maths made interesting reading and is I am sure a great basis for decisions in the long run. Noble always provides food for thought as do George, Rob dean and rodders. Sorry if I missed a contributor.
When George is posting fold, and then changing his view to call I know how tough this spot was.

I called flop with the thought that V1 could check the turn with a lot of hands having seen his raise called by both V2 and me.
I can then c/f or c/c the river dependent on whether it"s a spade or some other scare card.
When the action went as it did I figured I can"t be ahead of both players and the side pot is with V1 and small, so fold now makes sense. I still had a recoverable stack and room to use it.

I made the wrong decision on the flop. I bet with a view to crai, but then V2 muddied the waters and created doubts. The turn action muddied it even more and I made the wrong decision on the turn too. But I think I made it for good reasons.

V1 had   and thought he was ahead
V2 had     and had a monster draw that missed on the river.

I was not happy.

[dwh103]

Some really good replies here. Thanks all. dwh"s maths made interesting reading and is I am sure a great basis for decisions in the long run. Noble always provides food for thought as do George, Rob dean and rodders. Sorry if I missed a contributor.
When George is posting fold, and then changing his view to call I know how tough this spot was.

I called flop with the thought that V1 could check the turn with a lot of hands having seen his raise called by both V2 and me.
I can then c/f or c/c the river dependent on whether it"s a spade or some other scare card.
When the action went as it did I figured I can"t be ahead of both players and the side pot is with V1 and small, so fold now makes sense. I still had a recoverable stack and room to use it.

I made the wrong decision on the flop. I bet with a view to crai, but then V2 muddied the waters and created doubts. The turn action muddied it even more and I made the wrong decision on the turn too. But I think I made it for good reasons.

V1 had   and thought he was ahead
V2 had     and had a monster draw that missed on the river.

I was not happy.

V2 has two pair and no flush/straight draw? Otherwise that"s a surprising hand for him to show up with - if I see him play a hand like that earlier on in the tournie then I"m jamming it in his eye on the flop in this particular hand. Really like the idea behind Villain 1"s play though!

Moral of the story is to always have a plan as far as is possible. Betting with a view to CRAI and changing your mind there is absolutely fine, as significant new information has presented itself. If you can, with a reasonable degree of certainty, predict future action then you need to be ready for it.

Obviously depends on how you personally view the subsequent bets, if you see the turn action as significant/unexpected, then that"s your read (you"re the one at the table, no substitute for that!) - personally I"m expecting the turn action and have already allowed for it in my flop decision.