Calling turn because you"ve called flop as "nothing has changed" is flawed thinking. A lot has changed. Poker is a game played through the streets and by calling the flop we have one more street of info.
We now have a situation where we have two all in"s and imo someone has an 8 which doesn"t leave us very many outs- granted there is a helluva lot of money in the pot and ingame I might sigh call (which by the way I think is an understandable mistake) but I would still fold here knowing most of the time I"m beat. Someone who is better than me at the maths (noble1 maybe) can probs do some sums. It"s probs close between and call/fold but I"m calling due to the maths, not because I called flop therefore I should call turn
Not flawed at all. But I was on my iPhone in the middle of a tournament so maybe the point I was making didn"t come across right. The fact that "nothing has changed" is based solely on maths and that your turn decision should be trivial as this hand is decided on the flop.
The stacks are far too shallow to play through the streets - there is little to none extra information gained on the turn as a result. A bet goes in on the turn - so what? This should not come as a surprise and future chip investments
should be factored into the flop decision making.Assuming a 9 handed table, on the flop you"re calling 3700 into 25100, or 6.8:1 express odds. But this isn"t the end of the action, so you can"t use this figure for meaningful calcs in this situation. Better to assume that Villain 2 is all-in (he has 50% of his stack in the middle, after a bet and a raise on the flop - a fair assumption to say he"s committed). You"d have to call 13900 into 35300, or 2.53:1.
Oddwise:
Best case scenario) You make the call on the flop, no more money goes in and you go to showdown. You get 6.8:1 on a call that is the last action, and you"d need to win the pot 12.8% of the time to break even.
Worst case scenario) You make the call, Villain 2 jams turn 100%. This is effectively giving you 2.53:1, or you"d need to win 28.3% to break even.
Actual scenario - and most likely scenario imo) Both Villains get it in on the turn. If you all get Villain 2"s stack in you"re now investing 13900 into 45500, or 3.27:1. If you get your extra 4k in vs Villain 1, it"s 17900 into 49500, or 2.76:1.
Your
true odds lie somewhere between best and worst, but I think we can agree that we can expect significant further action. If you allow for that in your odds calc your final odds will likely be in the region of 2.5:1 - 3.5:1 (very generous estimate for the upper bound).
Why call flop? Because Hero thinks he"s ahead/a call is sufficiently +EV - If you call flop, where you can estimate the true odds on your money as above, and then fold the turn where:
- only 3 hands have overtaken you, none of them likely.
- it"s impossible to narrow down ranges further on the turn given stacks are so shallow.
- Villain 2 is committed, future action being relatively easy to predict, and...
- you"re getting better odds on the turn than you realistically were on the flop.
That"s what I mean by dreadful. The maths hasn"t changed from flop to turn, the range of hands beating you has barely changed. The reason you called on the flop hasn"t actually changed.