Happy New Year Everybody
Thought we would start the year off with a good strategy post. I think this is quite an interesting spot that I played today. Still not sure what the best thing to do in this spot is.
The Background
The original raiser in this pot is a reg in the zoom poker pool who basically pretty tight preflop. I only have 70 hands on him but he is playing 18/15 with and he has folded to 3-bets 6 times out of 7. His fold to c-bet is also 85%. The SB in the hand is also a reg who is basically really tight, playing 9/4 over ~50 hands. The sample sizes are not massive but give us enough info to go on with. The plan was I would 3-bet and everybody would fold, if somebody called I can control the pot with my position and have a good chance of winning the pot even if I miss. I was pretty sure the OR would 4-bet a premium hand. I am playing 23/21 with a 3-bet of 8% I think that there is a decnt chance these guy"s would know this. I also have a player note on one of them that may be relevant to this hand.
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Hero (BTN): $14.29
SB: $18.83 (There is a note that says "will lead out with a set on wet flop")
BB: $8.00
UTG: $29.33
MP: $9.85 (No player notes)
CO: $4.87
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has
fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $1.05, fold, MP calls $0.80
Flop: ($3.40, 3 players)
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OK so the SB being in the hand was not in the plan but I ma not too worried then the flop comes down and I hit top two pair. I plan to just cbet this anyway as there are two of them and they could have AK here. I basically expect them both to check to me and then if they have AK they will either raise or call, either is fine. KQ might do the same. The most likely hand that beats me here is 55 but I am not worrying about that at all at the moment.
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SB bets $1.70,
MP raises to $3.40,
*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------So it gets to me with a bet and a raise froim two really tight players. What hands can they have that beat me. Well neither of them can REALLY have Kings enough to make it worth worrying about. They can both have JJ and they both have 55 in their ranges now. JJ and KK are even less likely as I am holding blockers. 55 is possible. One of them could have AK or KQ perhaps but how can I be ahead of both of them now?
So what do you think of the following:-
a) What are both players ranges at this point.
b) What is the best thing to do here
c) How have I played the hand up to now are their any mistakes in there?