Hand from Today, what is best now?

[AAroddersAA]

Happy New Year Everybody

Thought we would start the year off with a good strategy post. I think this is quite an interesting spot that I played today. Still not sure what the best thing to do in this spot is.

The Background

The original raiser in this pot is a reg in the zoom poker pool who basically pretty tight preflop. I only have 70 hands on him but he is playing 18/15 with and he has folded to 3-bets 6 times out of 7. His fold to c-bet is also 85%. The SB in the hand is also a reg who is basically really tight, playing 9/4 over ~50 hands. The sample sizes are not massive but give us enough info to go on with. The plan was I would 3-bet and everybody would fold, if somebody called I can control the pot with my position and have a good chance of winning the pot even if I miss. I was pretty sure the OR would 4-bet a premium hand. I am playing 23/21 with a 3-bet of 8% I think that there is a decnt chance these guy"s would know this. I also have a player note on one of them that may be relevant to this hand.

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hero (BTN): $14.29
SB: $18.83 (There is a note that says "will lead out with a set on wet flop")
BB: $8.00
UTG: $29.33
MP: $9.85 (No player notes)
CO: $4.87

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has

fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, Hero raises to $1.10, SB calls $1.05, fold, MP calls $0.80

Flop: ($3.40, 3 players)

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK so the SB being in the hand was not in the plan but I ma not too worried then the flop comes down and I hit top two pair. I plan to just cbet this anyway as there are two of them and they could have AK here. I basically expect them both to check to me and then if they have AK they will either raise or call, either is fine. KQ might do the same. The most likely hand that beats me here is 55 but I am not worrying about that at all at the moment.

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SB bets $1.70,
MP raises to $3.40,

*---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So it gets to me with a bet and a raise froim two really tight players. What hands can they have that beat me. Well neither of them can REALLY have Kings enough to make it worth worrying about. They can both have JJ and they both have 55 in their ranges now. JJ and KK are even less likely as I am holding blockers. 55 is possible. One of them could have AK or KQ perhaps but how can I be ahead of both of them now?

So what do you think of the following:-

a) What are both players ranges at this point.
b) What is the best thing to do here
c) How have I played the hand up to now are their any mistakes in there?

[hi_am_chris]

If they are that tight are they both definitely raise calling or cold calling with 55 all the time?

[AAroddersAA]

If they are that tight are they both definitely raise calling or cold calling with 55 all the time?

Obviously I know what they both had but pretending I did not.......

I would say no to be honest. I would think 55 is less likely for the SB as the original raiser may call with 55 to try and set mine incorrectly. Think they would both get it in with KK so they can"t have that. unsure about JJ but it seems reasonable to call a 3-bet with this hand. I have a J blocker but do have blocker blocker action here?

[TheSnapper]

So what do you think of the following:-

a) What are both players ranges at this point.
b) What is the best thing to do here
c) How have I played the hand up to now are their any mistakes in there?

SB: JJ+,AKs,AKo

OR: KK+,JJ,55,AKs,AKo

edit; 3b tendencies for sb may help refining range. He may not ever flat AA and KK but seems very passive 9 / 4

Jam, but it is a high variance spot so okay to fold if you tilt easily or are playing under rolled.


You are in position otb so 3b size smaller to $0.90 it finds the same folds as $1.10 and saves us 2 bb's when we run into the top of his range

[Waz1892]

Grrrr posted and battery ran out!!

My thoughts in essence.

SB calling 2 raises rules out 55
MP getting action from 2 following his raise and only calling rules out Kk.

So only fearing his JJ. Ce la ve if so.

Pot bet for me, and calling any raise

[Fatcatstu]

Grrrr posted and battery ran out!!

My thoughts in essence.

SB calling 2 raises rules out 55
MP getting action from 2 following his raise and only calling rules out Kk.

So only fearing his JJ. Ce la ve if so.

Pot bet for me, and calling any raise

Does it? At these stakes, I think that his calling 2 raises says he is likely to have a pp or KQ

I think SB can easily have 55 here and MP probably wakes up with AK, puts his initial raise in, which is re raised by Rodders, and called by SB, makes a call with AK particularly standard IMO.

Flop comes, and SB bets out (this is also in Rodders notes, whats the point in having them if you arent going to apply them in a situation where all the peices come together like this?) , MP has Top/Top and re raises.

I just sigh and fold here Rodders mate, move on to the next hand.

[TheSnapper]

Flop comes, and SB bets out (this is also in Rodders notes, whats the point in having them if you arent going to apply them in a situation where all the peices come together like this?) , MP has Top/Top and re raises.

I just sigh and fold here Rodders mate, move on to the next hand.

Notes were that he leads sets on wet flops, dont think it"s overly relevent in this spot though. Firstly it suggests he puts great stock in protecting his hand, that in mind, would he then lead for only half pot into a decent sized flop pot to protect a big hand?

[Fatcatstu]

Flop comes, and SB bets out (this is also in Rodders notes, whats the point in having them if you arent going to apply them in a situation where all the peices come together like this?) , MP has Top/Top and re raises.

I just sigh and fold here Rodders mate, move on to the next hand.

Notes were that he leads sets on wet flops, dont think it"s overly relevent in this spot though. Firstly it suggests he puts great stock in protecting his hand, that in mind, would he then lead for only half pot into a decent sized flop pot to protect a big hand?

I think that we need to apply it slightly differently in different situations though no? It certainly shows a tendency to bet/raise his big hands as early as possible, so I think we should take that into consideration on flops like this, where, IMO the action seems to tell me we are beaten.

[Waz1892]

Far from me to argue with a England captain!!   But as he is "really tight" surely calling after raise and call indictes to you (SB) your 55 is why behind?

[Fatcatstu]

Far from me to argue with a England captain!!   But as he is "really tight" surely calling after raise and call indictes to you (SB) your 55 is why behind?

Agreed, but people set mine incorrectly all the time at this level, so he flicks it in to see a 5 or fold IMO.,

[AAroddersAA]

My thinking at the time was that he almost certainly does not have 55 and I have blockers to the other sets. His pure odds to set mine are not that far off though. I am playing 140BB and he covers me. I tend to look for about 16/1.

At the moment there is $1.55 in the middle and I have $13.19 in my stack. giving him about 13.5/1 to from that point of view it is not a terrible spot to set mine. The problem with cold calling with 55 here is that the player behind can re-open the action. I don"t think he does so without QQ+ but it is not impossible. I expected him to mostly fold though tbh and the SB would expect him too as well you would think. The other problem is I am not really 3-betting a tight range in this spot. I can three bet much lighter than this so I am not sure how good his implied odds actually are.

Calling with 55 here sounds like a bad play as it is -EV - he can have 55 here though and with the blockers it could be the most likely of the sets. Calling with JJ is a perfectly good play if he intends to get it in on a flop that comes all undercards against me. Calling with KK might be OK as well actually as 4-betting this spot would give away the strength of the hand. He could also have AA for this reason.

[AMRN]

My thinking at the time was that he almost certainly does not have 55 and I have blockers to the other sets. His pure odds to set mine are not that far off though. I am playing 140BB and he covers me. I tend to look for about 16/1.

At the moment there is $1.55 in the middle and I have $13.19 in my stack. giving him about 13.5/1 to from that point of view it is not a terrible spot to set mine. The problem with cold calling with 55 here is that the player behind can re-open the action. I don"t think he does so without QQ+ but it is not impossible. I expected him to mostly fold though tbh and the SB would expect him too as well you would think. The other problem is I am not really 3-betting a tight range in this spot. I can three bet much lighter than this so I am not sure how good his implied odds actually are.

Calling with 55 here sounds like a bad play as it is -EV - he can have 55 here though and with the blockers it could be the most likely of the sets. Calling with JJ is a perfectly good play if he intends to get it in on a flop that comes all undercards against me. Calling with KK might be OK as well actually as 4-betting this spot would give away the strength of the hand. He could also have AA for this reason.

thing is, you"ve clearly thought this through objectively, but I suspect you probably give the guy too much credit. In a zoom scenario, particularly if I"m playing 4 tables, I doubt I would ever fold a pair getting 13/1 implied, particularly in a 3 way pot where the implied could potentially be even higher.

I don"t think it"s reasonable to exclude 55 from his range.

[TheSnapper]

https://www.amazon.co.uk
thing is, you"ve clearly thought this through objectively, but I suspect you probably give the guy too much credit. In a zoom scenario, particularly if I"m playing 4 tables, I doubt I would ever fold a pair getting 13/1 implied, particularly in a 3 way pot where the implied could potentially be even higher.

I don"t think it"s reasonable to exclude 55 from his range.

Might be interesting to look through your HM database Steve.

I have just looked through a 25k hand sample and filtered as follows.....

main filter/ position: / preflop action facing player / hole cards (HE) / filter by actions / preflop actions < select:call>

137 hands qualify and show a 45.4 bb"s/100 profit. (must be running good   )

we can then change the preflop action filter to and see what % if any we fold in this spot, it is important because against a loose aggro oop we will be folding the best hand often or even worse guess calling flop & turn maybe even river.

26 hands were folded which is 26/(26+137)*100  = ~16%

As a general rule, if you dont feel its a spot where you can miss your set yet still win the pot, then folding is probably best.

[AAroddersAA]

[Fatcatstu]

Not a bad guess from me eh :p

Like I said you you before mate, we should be folding this pretty easily, but I still probably call then beat myself up after as I don"t hit the house :p