AQ 15x CO facing min open by unknown older gentleman always a ship?

[Zozzy]

Personally if I am in the old man"s shoes and raising with his range, I am never folding to the 15X shove.

Hi Craig

Can you explain this a bit please as to be honest I don"t understand. I know I would be folding quite a bit of my opening range to a 15x shove in this spot, there is really nothing else you can do. What do you think his open range is here? If we have enough info to know that he is only opening VERY tight and is never going to fold then AQ becomes marginal.  In reality though we often get called by worse and by hands we are racing with. We are only crushed by premium hands here, are we saying that he is only opening with premiums?

Steve I think this is where we have a difference of opinion. It may be that you are statistically right and I am a big fat fish!  but to me there is no fold equity raising and then facing a 15x shove.
The oldish   gentleman is in front too many times or "priced in" to call the AI if behind

[WYoung83]

 So if you are never raising and then folding to a 15bb shove, then this validates the shove with AQ even more. For example If the other guy had 77s, then AQ will need to see all 5 cards to have the best chance of winning.

I just think its very very standard to shove 15bbs over a hijack open with a wide range vs a random player. And with AQ. WOW if you are thinking of folding.

[Jon MW]

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I just think its very very standard to shove 15bbs over a hijack open with a wide range vs a random player. And with AQ. WOW if you are thinking of folding.

I played a leg of the Sky tour last year, in one hand the button shoved about 10bb"s and the big blind folded AK (!) face up (!!) leaving herself with a 7bb stack (!!!)

there are a lot of things that are "standard" but there are a lot of players who have very strange ideas about how many chips they need before they think they are short stacked, plus some people have got so hung up on the idea about needing fold equity that they forget that your total equity is also based on the strength of your hand (i.e. if your cards are strong enough then it doesn"t matter if you have zero fold equity).

Just goes to show that you really need some idea about your specific opponent/s, if they"re only playing AK,AA,KK then AQ is junk - but if you"re likely to get at least a coinflip then with stack sizes that low you"d be mad to miss the chance of a double up.

[pokerpops]

...
I just think its very very standard to shove 15bbs over a hijack open with a wide range vs a random player. And with AQ. WOW if you are thinking of folding.

I played a leg of the Sky tour last year, in one hand the button shoved about 10bb"s and the big blind folded AK (!) face up (!!) leaving herself with a 7bb stack (!!!)

there are a lot of things that are "standard" but there are a lot of players who have very strange ideas about how many chips they need before they think they are short stacked, plus some people have got so hung up on the idea about needing fold equity that they forget that your total equity is also based on the strength of your hand (i.e. if your cards are strong enough then it doesn"t matter if you have zero fold equity).

Just goes to show that you really need some idea about your specific opponent/s, if they"re only playing AK,AA,KK then AQ is junk - but if you"re likely to get at least a coinflip then with stack sizes that low you"d be mad to miss the chance of a double up.

I had someone fold KK a while back when I cold 4bet over a raise and a shorty shove

[ ] good fold in the circumstances

[Zozzy]

I am not saying that I am statistically correct to fold in this spot, it is not an instafold for me. It is just imo. I could be wrong in my assessment of course. It is just how I see the situation.
But
Knowing you have zero fold equity does not validate the shove. The opposite applies.
Even in Steve"s argument for the shove he is taking into account the amount of times we get a fold, he states "Against a realistic live calling range it is 50/50 imo"

[Jon MW]

I had a bit of a play on pokerstove

I think that for a shortstack situation like this that you"re not going to be unhappy with a coinflip

If your opponent will call your all in with roughly any pair or any 2 broadway cards then AQ is roughly 50:50 against his range.

If your opponent will call wider than that range then you"re even stronger.

If your opponent will only call tighter than that range (like the top 5% Steve suggested) then you can take into account your fold equity.

i.e. whatever way you look at it AQ is too strong to fold. Given that you"re too short stacked to play any streets I don"t see any other option than to shove.

[pokerpops]

I had a bit of a play on pokerstove

I think that for a shortstack situation like this that you"re not going to be unhappy with a coinflip

If your opponent will call your all in with roughly any pair or any 2 broadway cards then AQ is roughly 50:50 against his range.

If your opponent will call wider than that range then you"re even stronger.

If your opponent will only call tighter than that range (like the top 5% Steve suggested) then you can take into account your fold equity.

i.e. whatever way you look at it AQ is too strong to fold. Given that you"re too short stacked to play any streets I don"t see any other option than to shove.

It"s unlikely that you"re getting called that wide - I posted my"theoretical" range on page 1, 99+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+
which puts AQs at 43% (espoused theory often isn"t matched by theory in practice)

Still don"t hate the shove obviously, but it depends on a decent number of folds to make it +EV which means that utg has to be capable of having a wide enough utg raise range to have a sizable raise fold range. imo.