ICM only really matters when in the money, and strongly weighted toward decisions on the final table i always thought.
I think this really is a borderline call for me, but hopefully i would find the balls to call in this situation. It also depends on how deep your pockets are. If i was going to play every day 1, then this is a bit of a slow roll. If it was my only bullet then i may fold. But having a big stack going into day 2 is a massive advantage. New table draw, can use chips as ammo for growing the stack even more.
His range matters and it is extremely wide, because of the nature of the MTT, and the game flow of hand where he looses a big pot.
Sorry ICM values always matter.
In short ICM measures the monetary value of your chips at any given time & during a tournament it is vastly different to a cash game.
Example: in a cash game you have £50 you get it all in AA vs KK, you will win 82% of the time, so your $EV is 82%x£100 i.e. £82. But in a tournament (use 10 man for easy maths) at the start of a £50 tournament you have 1500 chips which are worth £50, but you win the tournament (payout structure 50/30/20) you have 15000 chips but they are only worth £250
not £500, so your chips are actually worth half of what they were originally, so the value of your chips diminishes the more chips you accumulate.
So logic dictates that chips you add to your stack have less value than chips you lose from your stack. We call this the bubble effect.
It"s easy enough here to work out our pot equity which is the amount we need to put into the pot divided by the total pot. I have the exact figures from leigh and this is 91359/199218 = 45.86% so this is our pot equity, but to get our break even pot equity we have to multiply this by the bubble factor.
What is difficult to work out is the "bubble factor" which is the value of our chips if we lose the hand divided by the value of our chips if we win the hand, it is dependant on how many get paid, the payout structure, how many players left, how many chips in play, our stack size the average stack size, etc etc etc. You need a special calculator to work it out but we can use some rule of thumbs here.
Now since the value of our lost chips is more than the value of any chips we gain the "bubble factor" is always greater than 1.
For the purposes of this example I am going to assume 1.2 (it will not be far away from this with 15% of the field left and will probably be slighty more but lets be conservative) and also I"ll use use Rodders Hand equity figure of 52.68% for a winning hand.
So now we multiply our pot equity by the bubble factor i.e. 45.86%x1.2 = 55.03%, so to just break even in a tournament we need to win the hand 55.03% of the time
not 45.86%. This is our break even equity.
Now we compare our hand equity figure of 52.68% to our break even equity of 55.03%, so although it is close it is a fold.
I hope that made sense.
