Author Topic: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision  (Read 28657 times)

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GiMac

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2013, 08:51:57 AM »

Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks



No it doesn"t cos should be folding AJ in this particular situation 100% of the time vs his stack size. I explained already why it doesn"t matter, so, rather than just stating it does, perhaps you would like to explain why it does?  ::)

pokerpops

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #31 on: March 12, 2013, 09:44:38 AM »
With further thought on this, I"m swinging into the calling camp

Firstly - this is NOT a satellite. We shouldn"t play it as such.

It"s a re-entry MTT which is approaching the bubble but around five eliminations short of the bubble being a factor and we have a touch over average stack.

MP has just lost a hand and his range is likely to have widened considerably given that re-entry options exist.

I know the hand he shoved with and can"t construct a range that includes it but something like any pair, any Ace any two broadway cards feels close

we"re 60/40 vs that and we have to be happy with that surely?

Even if we take out smaller pairs and smaller offsuit aces, and the J10 combos we"re still in the 60/40 range

If you knew for sure that your opponent held  Ac Kd

and we had  Jh Js we"d call wouldn"t we?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  1,712,304  games     0.002 secs   856,152,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    42.746%     42.58%    00.16%            729149         2794.00   { AcKd }
Hand 1:    57.254%     57.09%    00.16%            977567         2794.00   { JhJs }

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Fatcatstu

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #32 on: March 12, 2013, 10:55:36 AM »
Agree with Dave here (off to lie down in darkened room shortly)

He can just be doing this with alOt of stuff we beat. It is a re entry, so this widens his range somewhat I would imagine.

Why do we need to be scared just because it"s near the end of our day? IMO we are ahead most of the time here (see dave"s post for the details :p ) and have a chance to add a significant amount of chippy fe to our stack and be very comfortable going to day 2 and in a far better position to launch an attack on the proper money going forward.

Stick it all in the middle and next time do a win :)
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AAroddersAA

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #33 on: March 12, 2013, 11:03:02 AM »
I think his range does matter. It certainly is not the snap fold this thread has suggested and is a spot worth real consideration.

There are about 100K in chips out there to be won and it looks like we MIGHT have a good spot to try and win them here. That is what we are trying to assess.

Giving him a range of QQ-66 and any two broadway we are about 56%. I think you can probably add a few other holding we dominate as this looks like a slightly tilty shove to me which is most likely what it is, but let"s go with this range which I don"t think is too far off.

Please tell me if you think there are better ranges we could use (forget what he had it is not relevant)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

  1,150,668,288  games     0.000 secs   230,133,657,600  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    55.981%     52.68%    03.30%         606182224     37971614.00   { AJs }
Hand 1:    44.019%     40.72%    03.30%         468542836     37971614.00   { QQ-66, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

So we have a 55% chance to win 100K in chips but need to gamble 90K of our stack to do it. I actually quite like that risk/reward senario.

I would lean towards a reshove here. The fact the BB is still to act is a minor concern but not a big one, also knowing his stack size would help a little.

The argument for calling is do you think you can accumulate 100K in chips by finding a number of spots better than this more than 56% of the time. In most cases the answer is going to be no I think. This goes back to the question I have asked numerous times in the past about the QQ vs AK early in a tournament. This is a great in game example of the same sort of decision. To be honest the people folding in this spot may well be over-estimating their edge on the game.

The argument for folding is that you want to make day two and there is also fun equity in making day two as you go on a nice little trip to DTD and get to spend the day with some great people playing poker. Some people may also think their edge is larger live than online. Your table may also be playing in such a way you think you can pick up the chips better elsewhere BUT this would be most unusual. Their may also be significant ICM considerations depending on the payout.

I would fold this in a satellite. In this I reshove.
-----------------------------

Still trying to think of something amusing to write in this bit.

deanp27

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #34 on: March 12, 2013, 11:37:25 AM »


Lol of course his range matters, as does the size of the stacks



No it doesn"t cos should be folding AJ in this particular situation 100% of the time vs his stack size. I explained already why it doesn"t matter, so, rather than just stating it does, perhaps you would like to explain why it does?  ::)

Ok so accepted that you would never call a ~19bb shove with AJs and that the range of hands he may do this with is of no concern to you. What do you do in a tournament when you are in the BB with AJs and the SB open shoves 19bbs into you, don"t you think about ranges or even consider calling?

In a generic tournament, this is pretty close to a call because his range is likely to be wide (due to potential tilt factor) and he is unlikely to play premium hands (the hands that crush us) in this manner as he won"t want to miss out on value. If he only did this with top 5% of hands its clearly a fold.

It is still a tournament situation where accumulating chips is a primary concern, we are aiming to win and it is probably not at the point yet where ICM totally takes over our decision making at the expense of cEV. How the particular structure of the Grand Prix affects this is open to debate but i think getting a decent stack for day 2 is probably a good strategy and if we fail we try again. In a satellite it is a clear fold (probably regardless of his range as you state) as staying alive to the money places is our primary concern.
Looking forward to making my first day 2

GiMac

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #35 on: March 12, 2013, 15:24:02 PM »
I think it"s is way too simplistic to say we have hand equity vs his range so its a definite call. ICM values have to be considered as deanp suggests and we need to take into account our overall chip equity in the tournament currently, along with that which it would be if we won and lost and then take account of the "bubble factor", without the full hh with the current chip stacks on the table it"s hard to say whether it"s a call or not but with the information at hand it will be very marginal either way. It is a very interesting hand/situation though.

pokerpops

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #36 on: March 12, 2013, 16:21:25 PM »
I think you"re wrong there Gordon.

We"re well short of ICM considerations here. Day 2 will have at least 150 players and if the guarantee is reached there will be >200.

The prize for surviving to Day 2 is £150 - that"s expenses covered for the trip to play it but not much more in the context of a prize pool guaranteed at £100,000 and probably £22,000 for 1st.
The reward for having an above average stack at the start of Day 2 is greater than the risk here imo, particularly given that I"ve yet to see anyone of the opinion that we"re getting in as an underdog here.



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Matt D

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #37 on: March 12, 2013, 16:21:55 PM »
Aye, I have to confess I thought this was a satellite, hence the "snap fold" suggestion. Now I know it isn"t, I"m inclined to agree with Rodders.
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WYoung83

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #38 on: March 12, 2013, 16:24:08 PM »
ICM only really matters when in the money, and strongly weighted toward decisions on the final table i always thought.

I think this really is a borderline call for me, but hopefully i would find the balls to call in this situation. It also depends on how deep your pockets are. If i was going to play every day 1, then this is a bit of a slow roll. If it was my only bullet then i may fold. But having a big stack going into day 2 is a massive advantage. New table draw, can use chips as ammo for growing the stack even more.

His range matters and it is extremely wide, because of the nature of the MTT, and the game flow of hand where he looses a big pot.

GiMac

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #39 on: March 12, 2013, 20:09:55 PM »

ICM only really matters when in the money, and strongly weighted toward decisions on the final table i always thought.

I think this really is a borderline call for me, but hopefully i would find the balls to call in this situation. It also depends on how deep your pockets are. If i was going to play every day 1, then this is a bit of a slow roll. If it was my only bullet then i may fold. But having a big stack going into day 2 is a massive advantage. New table draw, can use chips as ammo for growing the stack even more.

His range matters and it is extremely wide, because of the nature of the MTT, and the game flow of hand where he looses a big pot.




Sorry ICM values always matter.

In short ICM measures the monetary value of your chips at any given time & during a tournament it is vastly different to a cash game.

Example: in a cash game you have £50 you get it all in AA vs KK, you will win 82% of the time, so your $EV is 82%x£100 i.e. £82. But in a tournament (use 10 man for easy maths) at the start of a £50 tournament you have 1500 chips which are worth £50, but you win the tournament (payout structure 50/30/20) you have 15000 chips but they are only worth £250 not £500, so your chips are actually worth half of what they were originally, so the value of your chips diminishes the more chips you accumulate.

So logic dictates that chips you add to your stack have less value than chips you lose from your stack. We call this the bubble effect.

It"s easy enough here to work out our pot equity  which is the amount we need to put into the pot divided by the total pot. I have the exact figures from leigh and this is 91359/199218 = 45.86% so this is our pot equity, but to get our break even pot equity we have to multiply this by the bubble factor.

What is difficult to work out is the "bubble factor" which is the value of our chips if we lose the hand divided by the value of our chips if we win the hand, it is dependant on how many get paid, the payout structure, how many players left, how many chips in play, our stack size the average stack size, etc etc etc. You need a special calculator to work it out but we can use some rule of thumbs here.

Now since the value of our lost chips is more than the value of any chips we gain the "bubble factor" is always greater than 1.

For the purposes of this example I am going to assume 1.2 (it will not be far away from this with 15% of the field left and will probably be slighty more but lets be conservative) and also I"ll use use Rodders Hand equity figure of 52.68% for a winning hand.

So now we multiply our pot equity by the bubble factor i.e. 45.86%x1.2 = 55.03%, so to just break even in a tournament we need to win the hand 55.03% of the time not 45.86%. This is our break even equity.

Now we compare our  hand equity figure of 52.68% to our break even equity of 55.03%, so although it is close it is a fold.

I hope that made sense.    :o :o :o

GiMac

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #40 on: March 12, 2013, 20:41:11 PM »
This is also why re-entering a tournament is such poor value. Because basically you are starting a £50 tournament with chips worth £50 but you have paid £100 for those chips. Because of this decisions while playing shouldn"t be made on the basis of "it"s ok if I"m wrong I can always re-enter" we should always be trying to make the optimum decision.

Chipaccrual

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #41 on: March 12, 2013, 21:23:20 PM »
Excellent post Gordon

pokerpops

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #42 on: March 12, 2013, 22:18:41 PM »
That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones

I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.
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GiMac

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #43 on: March 12, 2013, 22:23:37 PM »

That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones

I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.




Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie.  8)

pokerpops

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Re: DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision
« Reply #44 on: March 12, 2013, 22:42:32 PM »


That"s all well and good, but there isn"t 15% of the field left, there"s 15% of this Day 1 left, and there are seven day ones

I know we"re close to a cash but it"s insignificant in the wider scale of the potential from this tournament.




Sorry you are wrong. 15% from the field you are playing in is left so the figures can be extrapolated across the overall expected field size. Maths doesn"t lie.  8)


so we"re playing to make a min cash?
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