DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision

[dwh103]

Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.

What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?

Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.

You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:

Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)

Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.

Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.

There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.

Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish (;)) - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!

[deanp27]

There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c  801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........

Range to call ?

Maybe Ak TT+ but also important to stress that you shouldn"t be opening that much wider with the stack sizes behind you and a 24bb stack imo

[pokerpops]

Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.

What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?

Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.

You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:

Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)

Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.

Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.

There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.

Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish () - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!

Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?

I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark -  I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77

In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?

[pokerpops]

There are 20 left, we"re playing down to 14 and we"ve already secured a £60 token for another attempt (I have a second Golden Chip anyway but the token may have a value if I play again online on Thursday)

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (IPoker)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, March 13, 12:04:59 ET 2013
Table Dusk GP Final Online Day 1c  801927327 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Player1 ( 303509 ) - VPIP: 34, PFR: 34, 3B: 13, AF: 2.0, Hands: 53
Seat 2: Player2 ( 192500 ) - VPIP: 30, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 2.5, Hands: 90
Seat 3: Hero ( 120431 ) - VPIP: 17, PFR: 11, 3B: 6, AF: 2.0, Hands: 3496
Seat 5: Player5 ( 241611 ) - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 90
Seat 6: Player6 ( 140284 ) - VPIP: 13, PFR: 4, 3B: 7, AF: 0.0, Hands: 24
Seat 8: Player8 ( 55946 ) - VPIP: 7, PFR: 5, 3B: 3, AF: 0.0, Hands: 76
Seat 9: Player9 ( 54066 ) - VPIP: 11, PFR: 3, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 36
Player9 posts ante of [500].
Player1 posts ante of [500].
Player2 posts ante of [500].
Hero posts ante of [500].
Player5 posts ante of [500].
Player6 posts ante of [500].
Player8 posts ante of [500].
Player9 posts small blind [2500].
Player1 posts big blind [5000].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ x x ]
Player2 folds
Hero raises [11000]
Player5 folds
Player6 raises [139784]
Player8 folds
Player9 folds
Player1 folds
Hero..........

Range to call ?

Maybe Ak TT+ but also important to stress that you shouldn"t be opening that much wider with the stack sizes behind you and a 24bb stack imo

meh - ignore this hand. I"ll put the 50p in the Comic Relief tin. He shipped 55, I snapped with KK.

[AMRN]

Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.

What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?

Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.

You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:

Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)

Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.

Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.

There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.

Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish () - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!

Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?

I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark -  I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77

In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?

How wide do you think David?  15%? 20%?  I suspect that even then, from a mathematical ICM standpoint, a call would still be relatively marginal (Hope Gordon will do the math on that though)

[Fatcatstu]

Without being able to do all that maths stuff, surrrrrrrrely he is pushing ALOT of hands here? I would expect up see a lot of SC"s and all broadway hands in his range, as well as a lot of total crap, there is a big chance he wants to just re enter and is trying to spin up or get out.

I don"t even think its that close of a decision for me, I call it,  am happy I am ahead and hope to hold.

[GiMac]

Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?

I resent the implication that he is Scottish!!!

[GiMac]

meh - ignore this hand. I"ll put the 50p in the Comic Relief tin. He shipped 55, I snapped with KK.

Even a nit like me is calling with KK.  

[hi_am_chris]

Quick question Gordon, you say your folding AJ but probably calling AQ? Isn"t AQ really going to play pretty much the same as AJ  here? We still expect to be flipping some and 60/40 a lot and? If AJ is a fold her i can"t see how calling off with AQ can really be that much better?

[GiMac]

Quick question Gordon, you say your folding AJ but probably calling AQ? Isn"t AQ really going to play pretty much the same as AJ  here? We still expect to be flipping some and 60/40 a lot and? If AJ is a fold her i can"t see how calling off with AQ can really be that much better?

As I said AJ is marginal and AQ although probably a call it is at the bottom of my range. Whilst it plays similar vs many hands in his range, it dominates a couple of additional hands that are more likely to be at the top end of villains range like KQ for example and means we are flipping instead of dominated vs JJ. By this i mean yes AJ plays pretty much the same vs 9T as AQ but he is more likely to be shoving a hand we dominate like KQ even though both hands are in his range.

[GiMac]

I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too.  In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ?

[AAroddersAA]

Best thread of the year so far

btw - does anybody think we could actually be behind his range here, I have been assuming everybody agrees we are ahead in this spot? I have not played one of these so how do they play?

Constructing the range is what hand analysis is all about and getting the correct one pretty much tells us if a call is +cEV or not. Yes we can add in ICM too but at this point (and in most spots) I am going with cEV over ICM (ICM shows why you should not gamble large numbers of chips in marginal spots, how marginal is this spot though?). Maybe I spend too much time playing cash lol.

We have construct our range without a lot of info here, so we have to go to a lot of "default thinking" (I just that term up by the way) so I would be thinking:-

1) It looks like a tilt shove, therefore that is probably what it is. Yes he could know that and turn over AA but in poker things are usually exactly as they seem. This looks like a tilt shove and most of the time it is. I would widen his range here.

2) I don"t think he does this with AA or KK much so I would lessen the amount of combos of those hands in his range.

3) It looks a LOT like something he would do with AK and maybe a hand like 88 or 99.

I don"t believe a player in this spot is shoving as tight as 11% (although I am not sure why he shoved tbh I think with that stack you can make a standard 2.2x raise).

I therefore put him on something like 77+ and KJs+ and AT+

I am therefore calling with AJo+ and TT+ I think we can actually remove the AA and KK and maybe even some QQ combos from his range which make a difference as a lot of the hands that dominate us are not actually there. I also think there maybe one or two more that we do dominate, Axs in there

I call this with AJ+ and TT+, this may change if I had more info on the player of course

[AAroddersAA]

I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too.  In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ?

Good point BUT

Whilst you should not assume it is a tilt shove you have to give credit to the fact it really looks like one and it is far more likely that it is than he has picked up a big hand. You factor this in when constructing your calling range.

Yes of course you should shove if you get AA after losing a hand like that as it looks like a tilt shove and yes people will and should (maybe) snap you off with AJ, that is why you do it.

But as I said above far more often it turns out to be exactly what it looks like a tilt shove.

Please post in more threads in this section.

[dwh103]

I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too.  In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ?

Absolutely 100% this. Only Leigh can confirm. There is no other evidence to suggest he"s pushing wider than a standard range (which may be a tiny bit wider than 11%, not wide enough to make calling a viable option unless a tiny +tive ROI is your aim).

It"s an 18BB shove so Villain isn"t even short.

[Chipaccrual]

I don"t know the guy, but he posts on another forum.  He"d been quite active in the chatbox talking to an observer about what was a good stack for Day 2 etc etc.

Here"s a quote from other forum after the event (Not that it has much relevance to this discussion)  :-

I jus won biggish pot outplayin someone with K8 sooooted

Yeah, wp  

;whistle;

I thought it was a bit of a tilty shove into the BB of the guy who had just spiked the ace against you, so thought my   was in good shape.  Hadn"t planned on you turning the flush.

Good luck on Sunday.

Exactly as u said it. was defo tilt. If my 10"s held I was sailing thru so I prob dont play another hand. Unfortunate it was u on the end of my rage  ;grr;. I wud of defo called with AJ sooooted in ur spot. Ty for being gud sport about the suckout and GL urself  :cheers: