DTD Grand Prix Day 1a Decision

[Chipaccrual]

Best thread of the year so far

Should secure my APAT Awards Nomination for 2014 then  

[PHIL_TC]

Agreeing that this is a great thread.. and with Rodders that people posting on here should post more often in the strategies section..

Best thread of the year so far

Should secure my APAT Awards Nomination for 2014 then  

p.s doesnt this thread fall under this season though Leigh..   x

p.p.s with regards to the hand I"m a dwell / sigh / FML style fold x

[Chipaccrual]

p.s doesnt this thread fall under this season though Leigh..   x

Good Point.  STOP THE ENGRAVING !!!!!!!!!!!!

[GiMac]

I might also point out that we have no information on the villain apart from the fact that he lost the previous hand in a fairly standard hand vs a short stack. So this assumption that he must be tilt shoving is flawed imho too.  In fact something I often do is if I am dealt a monster immediately after losing a pot is to open shove to make it look tilty so someone calls me off with a marginal hand like erm lets see AJ?

Good point BUT

Whilst you should not assume it is a tilt shove you have to give credit to the fact it really looks like one and it is far more likely that it is than he has picked up a big hand. You factor this in when constructing your calling range.

Yes of course you should shove if you get AA after losing a hand like that as it looks like a tilt shove and yes people will and should (maybe) snap you off with AJ, that is why you do it.

But as I said above far more often it turns out to be exactly what it looks like a tilt shove.

Please post in more threads in this section.

Sure and thats why we have widened his possible range. But some people getting carried away saying he is almost certainly shoving any two cards, which is rarely the case with that size of stack.

[pokerpops]

Question for those that are folding the hand in the OP.

What range of cards would I need to have to make it a call for you, or is it a case of being unable to put him on a range, and therefore the risk of losing that amount of chips makes it a fold unless i"ve got kings or aces ?

Unless the villain has exhibited any tendencies otherwise, you should approach with a conservative mindset. Pushbot Spreadsheet http://www.mediafire.com/?l1zlilcyjoj is worth having a play round with.

You have to call 87.5k more into a 102k pot. If Villain is shoving:

Top 7.5% (88+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs) - AJs is a -cEV call
Top 11% (55+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo) - AJs is marginally +cEV (less than a 2% ROI on your chip investment)

Do you have any evidence/feeling to suggest Villain is shoving any wider? If yes, then you still need to consider the ICM implications - they always exist. And then you have the BB to act behind you. And your chip position is more than comfortable. It"s still a very easy fold for me.

Gordon"s calling range is about right against an 11% shove range, giving you a 15%+ cROI.

There is and has been so much written about push/fold, aggression etc that blindly shoving 10-20BBs has become ingrained and a habit in many players. The biggest leak around imo, even in decent players, is incorrectly valuing stack size.

Of course if +2% ROI is the best spot you think you can obtain because you"re a fish () - call away. Though against a DTD field you"re definitely better than that!

Do you really think that Mr Tilty McTilt is shoving as tight as 11% here?

I agree that the decision is tight, but the problem with constructing ranges is that all too often in hand analysis threads it seems we construct a range that suits our view of the decision, rather than constructing a range and then seeing where that leads us.
In a vacuum, for an unknown, in a standard comp, no arguments. He should be around that 11% mark -  I might actually lower that and take out 55/66/77

In this comp, in this moment with the dynamic of approaching the 10% mark/end of Day 1 and having a re-entry option? 11%?

How wide do you think David?  15%? 20%?  I suspect that even then, from a mathematical ICM standpoint, a call would still be relatively marginal (Hope Gordon will do the math on that though)

15% is erring on the side of caution imo
but this is what it looks like vs that 15%

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

279,105,552  games     0.039 secs     7,156,552,615  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    45.930%     42.38%    03.55%         118282669      9911260.50   { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 1:    54.070%     50.52%    03.55%         141000362      9911260.50   { AdJd }

My over-riding point is that I don"t believe we"re in a good enough position to be in chip-preservation mode and should be taking these spots. I"m aiming for 250k to take to day 2. I might slow down when there"s maybe two more to be eliminated.
If you showed me that it"s exactly 50/50 I"d take it.
Wouldn"t do the same on the FT bubble, but that"s nowhere near where we are.

[GiMac]

You don"t think 35 bigs with an increased 45 clock is enough to take back for day 2?

[pokerpops]

You don"t think 35 bigs with an increased 45 clock is enough to take back for day 2?

30 minute clock till the Final Table and, no, I want enough to be able to take on the early shoves (as appropriate) without getting down to being in shove fold mode myself.

I"m playing Day 1 again this evening and don"t get me wrong, I"ll be pleased to go into Day 2 with anything over 150k, but, 250+ has to be the target.

[GiMac]

You don"t think 35 bigs with an increased 45 clock is enough to take back for day 2?

30 minute clock till the Final Table and, no, I want enough to be able to take on the early shoves (as appropriate) without getting down to being in shove fold mode myself.

I"m playing Day 1 again this evening and don"t get me wrong, I"ll be pleased to go into Day 2 with anything over 150k, but, 250+ has to be the target.

Its advertised as 45 min clock for day 2.

[TightEnd]

No its advertised as Day 2 30/45, which means 45 min for the final only

http://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/news.php?id=2313

[Tiger-flash]

Unlucky Leigh, hope I don"t get   when I play this afternoon  

[GiMac]

No its advertised as Day 2 30/45, which means 45 min for the final only

http://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/news.php?id=2313

Then I suggest they change this because it is incorrect!!!

http://www.dusktilldawncasinonottingham.com/events/grand-prix

[GiMac]

get 2 outered on river then I "Tilt Shove" this hand.

All you AJ guys just paid me off!!! Thanks lol

PokerStars Hand #95776091770: Tournament #2013004043, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2013/03/19 0:06:46 WET [2013/03/18 20:06:46 ET]
Table "2013004043 778" 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Tonnzza (5370 in chips)
Seat 2: PBaganha (8032 in chips)
Seat 3: GiMac (3988 in chips)
Seat 4: TameOne420 (2251 in chips)
Seat 5: Nikita4499 (7444 in chips)
Seat 6: namara2752 (7915 in chips)
Nikita4499: posts small blind 20
namara2752: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GiMac [ ]
GiMac said, "lol joke"
Tonnzza: folds
PBaganha: raises 100 to 140
GiMac: raises 3848 to 3988 and is all-in
TameOne420: calls 2251 and is all-in
Nikita4499: folds
namara2752: folds
PBaganha: calls 3848
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
PBaganha: shows [ ] (high card Ace)
GiMac: shows [ ] (a pair of Kings)
GiMac collected 3474 from side pot
TameOne420: shows [ ] (a pair of Jacks)
GiMac collected 6813 from main pot
TameOne420 finished the tournament in 8531st place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10287 Main pot 6813. Side pot 3474. | Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 1: Tonnzza folded before Flop (didn"t bet)
Seat 2: PBaganha showed [ ] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 3: GiMac showed [ ] and won (10287) with a pair of Kings
Seat 4: TameOne420 (button) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: Nikita4499 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: namara2752 (big blind) folded before Flop

[pokerpops]

different in so many many ways

nh though


easy fold for AJ but pretty easy call for AK

Would we see it if they spiked the ace?  :-):-)

[AAroddersAA]

Don"t think this spot is the same tbh mate.

Even if it was it is not really relevant, we know that there are times AJ is behind but we are pretty sure it is ahead of his range for shoving in the original post (I get the impression everybody agrees with this but tell me if you think I am wrong as this changes things massively). We know that he can wake up with KK or AA but it is very unlikely. Your spot is different as it is a shove over a raise making getting paid off much more likely, cold calling with AJ there is bad as even if you were tilted the OR has still made a raise from EP and can call it off a lot. I doubt you would have open shoved KK right?

[GiMac]

different in so many many ways

nh though


easy fold for AJ but pretty easy call for AK

Would we see it if they spiked the ace?  :-):-)

Of course the situation isn"t the same, just making tye point that because someone open over shoves just after losing a hand doesn"t nexessarily mean they are always on tilt.

And david the outcome is irrelevant, if he spikes his A that"s just unlucky but we outplayed him. So yes you would have seen the hand. Sigh.