Checking means that a large part of his range checks behind. Most pairs and worse aces probably do this.
Betting like 400 means I have to fold if he shoves as I can"t be winning hardly ever. You do NOT have to call in this spot as you are pretty much ALWAYS losing whatever pot odds you have. I don"t think he bluffs very often in this spot, nobody does.
Hands that might call a little blocker bet:- AJ+, KK-TT?
Hands that just fold:- Air and maybe some pairs
Hands that should raise = sets, not really any viable two pair combos
There are a lot of pair type hands and aces that we beat that will call about 400 OTR than combos of air that are going to bluff so I guess I go with that. Combo that call a small bet but should check behind if we check:-
AQ 8 combos
AJ 8 Combos
KK 6 Combos
QQ 6 Combos
JJ 6 Combos
TT 6 Combos
AQ and AJ might bet the river to be fair but the others don"t. I don"t see a decent player bluffing to often on the river either. It"s gets called off far too often by most players.
Conclusion - Bet about 400 and fold to a raise.
Agree with all of this logic, but not sure if villain barrels the turn with 99-KK? Villain is said to be a good player and on the very dry turn betting with those hands would be hugely -EV?
So now villains river range looks more like....
AA,88,AKo-AJo,AKs-ATs,7h6h,7c6c, just threw in two combos of 76s as a random possibility?
76s 2 combos
AA,88 4 combos
for a total of 6 combos that beat us or 20% of villains range. These definitely bet when checked to and raise when we lead.
AK 6 combos 20% of villains range.
We chop with these and villain likely bets when checked to, I suspect villain will raise our lead with this hand >0% but not enough to impact greatly on our decision.
Then we have the stuff we beat...
ATs-AQs, AJ,AQ, 18 combos and 53% of villains range.
Making the following assumptions.....
When we check...
Villain bets AK,AQ,AA,88 and 76s.
Villain always bets ai for 1395.
Villain checks back AT and AJ.
When we bet....
We bet 400.
We always fold to a raise.
Villain always flats with AK,AT-AQ.
EV for checking is +949
EV for betting is +1544