Hand of the Day #2

[AAroddersAA]

ITM, 2 tables left average of about 16K

PokerStars Hand #98421858780: Tournament #731308728, $2.28+$0.22 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (500/1000) - 2013/05/11 17:49:03 WET [2013/05/11 12:49:03 ET]
Table "731308728 10" 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Hlazor (38006 in chips)
Seat 2: AAADRENALINA (14706 in chips)
Seat 3: bartuxas (4045 in chips)
Seat 4: koikoi781230 (16172 in chips)
Seat 5: 33teetwo33 (15670 in chips)
Seat 6: nkostas12 (21496 in chips)
Seat 7: saldaini5 (13791 in chips)
Seat 8: roger660 (8134 in chips)
Seat 9: gydro88 (14570 in chips)
Hlazor: posts the ante 100
AAADRENALINA: posts the ante 100
bartuxas: posts the ante 100
koikoi781230: posts the ante 100
33teetwo33: posts the ante 100
nkostas12: posts the ante 100
saldaini5: posts the ante 100
roger660: posts the ante 100
gydro88: posts the ante 100
AAADRENALINA: posts small blind 500
bartuxas: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 33teetwo33 [ ]
koikoi781230: folds
33teetwo33:

What do you do with AJ here and what is your shoving range?

[AMRN]

In early to mid position, I probably shove AJ here.... however I reckon it"s pretty near the bottom of my shoving range in this position.

[mporter123]

How long we got till the clock goes up?  

I fold here. Would be shoving 88+, AQ+. Probs too tight.

[mporter123]

Probs min raising QQ, KK, AA and AK too. Exploitable ftw.

[Charlie44]

Interesting situation here in my IMO. BB is probably committed to calling. Lets assume apart from bb you are only getting called by a hand that is dominating you JJ+,AQ+, by my calc that"s approx 20% chance for 6 players, and against that range you are close to 25% chance of winning. Assume that the BB calls with any 2 cards you have 63% chance against random hand. Ignoring the complication of having 2 or more callers I believe approx. scenario if you push is :

Call by hand other than BB and lose - 15%    Lose  15,670
Call by hand other than BB and win    -  5%   Win   18,070
Call by BB and win                          -  50%  Win    5,445
Call by BB and lose                           30%   Lose   4,045

Overall chips ev = +62. Very marginal gain in chips but this is before taking into account ICM considerations, so it is a fold for me. I don"t think I like a min raise/fold to shove  here. So no shame to folding AJ here IMO.

[deanp27]

might fold this but its borderline. If not folding then I am shoving.

[pokerpops]

Six players to act behind us that can decimate our stack or worse.
Any stats on them or history?
Readless I think it"s a clear fold. Live with the usual locals I shove but expect to be behind/dominatd if I get called, but to get it through often enough to make it worthwhile.

[KarmaDope]

Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.

Never doing anything else.

[pokerpops]

Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.

Never doing anything else.

Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?

[noble1]

Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.

Never doing anything else.

Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?

a mixture of calling stds - http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#KuUI

[KarmaDope]

Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.

Never doing anything else.

Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?

a mixture of calling stds - http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#KuUI

I"ve had a very quick play with this - assuming that the stack sizes similar to ours will be calling tight, but the big stack and the 2 shorties are calling light. This worked out at -0.10%.

If the big stack is also calling tight (22+,AT+,KQ) - then it is +0.08%.

This is because of the bias against confrontation - yes personally we want them to call with their K4s but we only win the pot <70% of the time when that happens so we have to take that into account.

In this particular case - it is all dependent on our read of the big stack, even though we have a 4bb shorty in the BB. If he is tight, shove. If not, fold. ICM wise even if the BB is calling with any two cards, we make a profit if the big stack is tight, and lose if the big stack calls light.

[hi_am_chris]

Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?
[/quote]

Blatant i dont lose 70 30"s brag  

[George2Loose]

Awwwww in

[pokerpops]

Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?

Blatant i dont lose 70 30"s brag  


[/quote]

Happy to take a 70:30 at this stage surely.

[Bigfella42]

Table dependent - if there are a few players calling light then I pass. Tight, I jam.

Never doing anything else.

Surely if there are players likely to call us off light we want to be shoving here? Wouldn"t we want to get a call from Kx/suited connectors or from someone overvaluing any Ace where we"re likely to be favourite?

a mixture of calling stds - http://www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#KuUI

I"ve had a very quick play with this - assuming that the stack sizes similar to ours will be calling tight, but the big stack and the 2 shorties are calling light. This worked out at -0.10%.

If the big stack is also calling tight (22+,AT+,KQ) - then it is +0.08%.

This is because of the bias against confrontation - yes personally we want them to call with their K4s but we only win the pot <70% of the time when that happens so we have to take that into account.

In this particular case - it is all dependent on our read of the big stack, even though we have a 4bb shorty in the BB. If he is tight, shove. If not, fold. ICM wise even if the BB is calling with any two cards, we make a profit if the big stack is tight, and lose if the big stack calls light.

Why do we lose if the BB calls light? Surely if he"s gonna call light then we"re ahead and how can we pass up that opportunity to double? I"m all in here with the number of BB"s that we have. If we want to win don"t agree that this is a fold.