JM 3 Barrels and allin on river from villain but does it make sense ?

[Charlie44]

One of these awkward big river bet decisions again.

Only 30 hands on villain stats of 17/13. Did I play pre and flop ok ? Should I be raising the turn to get value if he"s got a flush draw or is more likley it is pure bluff and he will bluff again on river ? Does the the 3 barrell make sense . Are there enough flushes in his range given A diamonds on board ? Should I call the river ?

Thoughts welcome.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: $4.70
SB: $8.69
BB: $10.00
UTG: $11.05
UTG+1: $10.00
UTG+2: $10.28
MP: $11.63
MP+1: $14.43
Hero (CO): $14.15

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has
fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.40

Flop : ($1.45, 2 players)
BB bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

Turn : ($2.85, 2 players)
BB bets $1.70, Hero calls $1.70

River : ($6.25, 2 players)
BB bets $6.90 and is all-in, Hero ?

[TheSnapper]

Preflop depends on villains 3b tendencies, 3b size suggests villain is bad, anything from snap fold to 4b get it in.

Given 3b size and my experience with that type of player, I"m raising the flop trying to get stacks in quickly.

[Matt D]

I"d 4b rather than call, with the aim of trying to get it all in pre.

[wizzlet]

It"s harder to put him on a made flush given the high diamonds already out there, at these stakes players the river jam with air is pretty common, notes on players can be so useful.  As well as thinking about what beats you, consider what worse "3bet pre" hands he jams with. Looking at his bets I"m thinking he could have AK, AQ or AJ, perhaps these are more likely than flush or straght cards.

I"m flat calling the 3bet pre and definately raising the flop - this puts more money in the pot and this gives you the odds to call his shove whenever he does it, by doing this you can dissuade the turn/river jam bluff so if he still jams when its obvious you are priced in then he is more likely to have you beat so you could save some money.

[Matt D]

My bad. For some reason I though the villain was the button ($4.70) stack. With the villain as bb ($10), I concur with wizzlet"s approach above.

Though, I"m not sure at these levels if he jams the turn/river it"s likely you"re beat, unless you have him tagged as a well known grinder of these levels.

[hi_am_chris]

Def raising the flop or Turn, don"t hate flatting the flop as it keeps bluffs in his range and lets him barrell the turn. Raise / call the tun if he has Aces or Queens it"s reload time. As played there are still bluffs in his range along with "value" hands that you beat.

[AAroddersAA]

I am assuming no reads/notes here.

17/13 is a pretty tight player. I would guess a 3-bet range of about 4% based on these stats. This is basically TT+ and AQ+. It is a 3-bet from the SB to an LP raise though so we have to factor in he can be doing this a bit light. Think calling is just about fine, although I would not hate a fold.

He has lots of aces in his range making the flop a raise for me but I don"t mind calling either. Turn for me is an auto raise, I prefer to raise the flop as flatting the flop and raising the turn should set off alarm bells in most players heads (does not mean it does though). On the flop we can charge draws to see another card and get called by lot"s of made hands worse than ours.

I do think he has some flush draws in his range and the bet on the river is pretty nasty. It is just over pot size and it could be a bluff but I am going to disagree with the above and say bluff shoves on the river are rare in this game and there are therefore not many in his range. He at least has an ace, probably better as aces tends to check/call in this spot. You need to be good about one time in three, without reads I doubt we are, so fold is correct imo. I think I do fold this in game as well but it is so much harder than on PHA.

[TheSnapper]

I am assuming no reads/notes here.

This is basically TT+ and AQ+. It is a 3-bet from the SB to an LP raise though so we have to factor in he can be doing this a bit light. Think calling is just about fine, although I would not hate a fold.

I do think he has some flush draws in his range and the bet on the river is pretty nasty.

There are zero flushdraws in this range on this flop. You could make a small case for something like 7d6d-Td9d but that"s a pretty wide 3b range for this player. If villain can have suited connectors then he can also have 77 for a turned set.

All that said and as unlikely as it seems, we may be behind here,  ai river bluffs are rare at this level, even more so in a 3b pot. I suppose villain can overvalue AK with the blocker.

[Matt D]

Are you able to say 17/13 is tight after only 30 hands?

[hi_am_chris]

Wouldn"t even call it insanely tight for full ring?

[Charlie44]

Thanks all for the input. Hard to remeber my reasoning not to raise the flop at the time but I think it was something like this. Villain has five basic type of hands -

1. Monsters that beat me AA/QQ (only 2 combos). I"m probably going broke against these but obviously calling is better than raising here hoping he doesnt bet enough to put you all in by riv.

2. Split with AQ.- Irrelevant how action goes.

3. Value hands that I beat - AK and maybe AJ. I can get more value out of these hands but will villain call raise and two further streets and go broke? I am not classifying him as a fish so I think this is doubtful. Villain only has max of 3 outs with these holdings. So best strategy in position IMO is call until villain stops betting.

4. Semi Bluffs - If villain has flush draw prob best to raise , but how likley is this given action and the fact A diamonds on board.

5 Bluffs - If villain is bluffing e.g with pocket pair less than queen,  he will fold to any raise, but may keep bluffing on further streets. He prob has 2 outs.

When a blank hit turn I had same reasoning about calling rather than raising.

I actually called the river because I could not see many value hands in his range which made sense,and thought it possible he was overplaying AJ. He actually showed JJ and caught a set on the river. He must have believed I had enough Ax hands in my range which I would fold with a turn bet.  The old addage of not calling all in pot bet without very strong ahnd seems to hold true again   Oh well make a note and carry on