Calling it off

[mporter123]

[dwh103]

ICM suicide calling off here. Easy fold for me. Sucks to get abused though.

[dwh103]

HoldemResources Nash Results

Actually closer than I expected, you"re just below the cusp of 44+ A2s+ A4o+ K6s+ K8o+ Q8s+ QTo+ JTs

However I"d still fold a reasonable portion of this range (approx bottom third), as your opponents will play very sub-optimally - so imo your tournament life matters that little bit more.

[mylesfdo]

ICM suicide calling off here. Easy fold for me. Sucks to get abused though.

+1

[AAroddersAA]

Horrible spot.

This guys is a very good player and should know it is massively +EV for him to shove on us very wide here so we are going to face this a lot. I understand Dave"s point that a lot of opponents will play sub optimally but having this guy (who won"t) to our left is going to make our life even more difficult, we don"t have much time either, the blinds are only 5 minutes and fly up. You are going to be playing 2k/4k/400 within minutes so you will only have 6BB. The flip side of that is shoving will win you lot"s as people fold too much.

Assuming he is shoving 50% of all hands in this spot and he WILL be shoving more than that then we are about 48%. Given that we have 24312 chips left and there are effective 32412 in there to win then I am happy enough to call it off. If I win I have just significantly more than doubled my chances of winning the tournament taking all factors into account.

So I call - probably.

I do see the point with ICM, as stack sizes are awkward, but these games are SO top heavy in the prize pool that you just have to go for the top 3 places. Laddering from 7th to 6th wins you $5 which is two buyin"s. Even laddering to 5th only gets you $11.

The big prize jumps come in the top 3 and that is what we should always be playing for.

[AMRN]

If we peg the guy as a decent reg, we should expect him to shove almost ATC from the SB with these stack sizes, and on that basis, I"m not folding an Ace.

[wizzlet]

I would call off here too, its a good opportunity chip up I think. A good player with his stack will probably push any two cards here.  When there are fewer players left and the pay jumps bigger I"d fold here.

[hi_am_chris]

I"m borderline here, think i"m folding though.

There"s only one guy with a big stack and losing our bb here doesn"t really worsen our prospects, a double up with our smaller stack will still put us in a similar position to whether we gamble here. Would much rather be sticking the chips in first than calling it off here.

[George2Loose]

Used to call off here loads but I think it"s a pretty big leak. Sometimes we have to fold the best hand

[mporter123]

I think it should be a fold.

In game I did think its ICM suicide to call then starting thinking this:-

The big prize jumps come in the top 3 and that is what we should always be playing for.

Eventually called it off and lost. Its obviously a snap if shorties not there but think we have to do the ICM thing even if its only a few bucks.

[deanp27]

if there were more shorties around your stack size I would definitely fold, as things stand I would be really tempted to call, pretty borderline imo

[hi_am_chris]

Most of the players are around the same stack size as Mark though?

even the 44k stack is in a similar situation to Mark, there"s only one stack that"s crushing

[hi_am_chris]

And not sure the shorty really makes any difference

[deanp27]

Most of the players are around the same stack size as Mark though?

even the 44k stack is in a similar situation to Mark, there"s only one stack that"s crushing

misread it slightly and thought we were 2nd shortest by a distance, may lean towards a fold now

the short stack does make a difference as there is potentially an imminent pay jump