Horrible spot.
This guys is a very good player and should know it is massively +EV for him to shove on us very wide here so we are going to face this a lot. I understand Dave"s point that a lot of opponents will play sub optimally but having this guy (who won"t) to our left is going to make our life even more difficult, we don"t have much time either, the blinds are only 5 minutes and fly up. You are going to be playing 2k/4k/400 within minutes so you will only have 6BB. The flip side of that is shoving will win you lot"s as people fold too much.
Assuming he is shoving 50% of all hands in this spot and he WILL be shoving more than that then we are about 48%. Given that we have 24312 chips left and there are effective 32412 in there to win then I am happy enough to call it off. If I win I have just significantly more than doubled my chances of winning the tournament taking all factors into account.
So I call - probably.
I do see the point with ICM, as stack sizes are awkward, but these games are SO top heavy in the prize pool that you just have to go for the top 3 places. Laddering from 7th to 6th wins you $5 which is two buyin"s. Even laddering to 5th only gets you $11.
The big prize jumps come in the top 3 and that is what we should always be playing for.