Duke attempts the Impossible

[duke3016]

I think you misunderstand the question. It"s the level of change that you attempt when things seem to be going wrong, regardless for whether you are making the correct decisions or not. If you are making the right decisions, do you go that"s poker or do you try to effect change.

[duke3016]

And I did lol  at the little mistakes wording.

[duke3016]

And I am in the pub on my phone which with my fingers might be unreadable

[Fatcatstu]

If you are making the right decisions then you dont need to change, do you? You can always learn and look to improve them, but it would be wiser to spend your time correcting the great, big, monumental, drunken, dribbly feckers of mistakes that you make (better wording? :p )

[duke3016]

Debate over. Love you stu.

[duke3016]

Home now - embarrassed while posting on the phone - nah not really...... but this debate will never be resolved. Look out Vegas the duke is coming to get ya

[duke3016]

If you ever get a chance to visit the wonderful County of Clare please do so. There are a number of beautiful places to visit and one of them is Bunratty folk park.

The folk park began in the early "60s when a farmhouse had to be demolished to make way for a new runway at Shannon International Airport. The house was taken to Bunratty and reconstructed brick by brick. Over time more and more structures were added illustrating the dwelling places of poor labourers, wealthier farmers, trades people and lords and ladies. A schoolhouse (this was Belvoir School which was my mother's first teaching post), a church, a post office, shops and a pub were added to complete the village.


At Bunratty you hear more American accents than Irish because the folk park is primarily designed for visitors. The preservationists who have created Bunratty Folk Park and other interpretive centers in Ireland are passionate about the story they have to tell, and recreations and reenactments bring history to life and stimulate the imagination in a way that books and pictures cannot.

The same goes for the castle banquet at Bunratty. It"s primarily a show for visitors, but what a show! Who could pass up a chance to dine in a beautifully furnished banquet hall, mellowed by mead and serenaded by exquisitely costumed harpers, fiddlers and singers? The food is excellent and the music is superb.

Also, sample the banquets at Knappogue Castle and Dunguaire Castle and the music night at the Bunratty Corn Barn. A visit to the Lough Gur Stone Age Cente, the Craggaunowen Bronze Age Project, and the Brian Boru Heritage Centre in Killaloe is a must.

A trip along the Atlantic coast through the area known as the Burren is also a must. It is a carboniferous limestone landscape with thousands of varieties of rare flowers, including acres and acres of wild orchids. Botanists come here from all over the world to study the unique combination of Arctic, Alpine and Mediterranean plants.
Back in 17th Century, General Edmund Ludlow wrote to his boss, English dictator Oliver Cromwell, that the geography of the Burren was interfering with his favorite pastimes: He said

"It is a country where there is not enough water to drown a man, wood enough to hang one, nor earth enough to bury him,"

And no I am not sponsored by the Irish Tourist Board I just miss it sometimes more than others and today is one of them.

[Curlarge]

As I cant be arsed to look at the first post about change and correct decisions etc... can I assume that you are talking about changing from drinking beer to shorts/shots in Vegas?

If so, then that is always a good decision as it means we have been drinking long enough to consider a change might be beneficial

[duke3016]

as usual a measure or reality enters the fray

[duke3016]

So doctors should no longer tell patients which medical treatments to have, but give them options and let them decide. WTF your standard GP has 7 years of Uni and numerous years of internship and they are letting me decide. OK Beer and loads of red meat it is.

[AAroddersAA]

I play the game of poker for fun but with a hint of seriousness now and again but the basic structure of my game does not really change even when I concentrate (which is rare). I have, however, been concentrating really well over the last few months in games that I need to. Early on it was profitable (Vegas in June?) and now not so much. So do I change my game, do I over analyse it?

Professor Tony Greenfield of Queens University, Belfast says.

“People ignore the fact that there are ordinary ups and downs and instead look for some deep meaning in short term change and if anything goes wrong they look for a special cause and tackle the problem by troubleshooting. You set your goal and then try to adjust for every deviation without distinguishing between common cause variation and special cause variation. The consequence is that the total variation becomes greater than it would if the process were allowed to run uncontrolled”

A clever man that man..

Is it a myth that when there is variation it requires action? Or do you keep the ship going through the eye of the storm. I have seen many responses to people asking the age old question about losing streaks and is it possible to over analyse your game.

Is there a big risk of over reaction and are we guilty of reading too much into the devil that is chance. The ups and downs of bad luck or indeed good luck can mask the underlying quality of your game. I firmly believe few people are confident enough to stand by their judgements about the underlying quality of their game and most remain steadfastly attached to short term goals. Goals that are battered by the god of variance.

Masters of statistics ram home the uncertainty of numbers created by the variability of the game that we love to play. These people also advocate the long term success of playing with these numbers (odds?).

Of course these downs (and to a certain extent the ups) can have real causes that must be eliminated. But I guess my real question is: Can reading too much into the data/analysis of your game be as damaging as ignoring it?.

Do we change our game when we are winning, I am not sure we do. We get more confident and therefore we make correct decisions without too much thought. Conversely, we demand change when we are losing, we try things and we chase ghosts.

Where is Rodders when you need him?

Here sir

Stu already resolved this though - so please continue to explain the most +EV game for drinking in Vegas casinos.

ktnksbye

PS - Come to Manchester

[duke3016]

[duke3016]

Once more from 2010

Matthew aka Stockton Rock aka Brains

A studious bespectacled rock of the highest order. Matt has been known to play less than AA on occasion but admits it was a momentary lack of concentration. His patience is of biblical proportions and has been featured on “Ripley's Believe It Or Not”.

He received a citation from Cantrell & Cochrane for services to the sales of cider in Europe. Has gotten used to the often uttered phrase “Who the feck are you?” when at APAT functions.

A welcome and frequent visitor to APAT 'away' games, long may he continue to attend and maybe, just for a laugh, raise in position with J's.


Stuart aka fatcatstu aka Rasputin

If he hasn't already regaled you with his win at APAT last year, I will not steal his thunder. He has started a blog and is at the moment thinking of entering it for the 'micro' blog of the year award.

Has travelled to numerous APAT events and has never been far from controversy. In Tallinn his mobile phone mysteriously opened itself, extracted its own sim card and closed itself again. Also in Tallinn he went into his room and found a random Russian man in his bed wearing his clothes and claiming asylum. Stu made such an impression on this man that the next day he kept coming up to him casting admiring glances in his direction.

Has been known to take a drink or two whilst on tour and is like the Queen in that he plans his routes so he is never further than 100 yards away from a bar.

His poker style is a contrast to his brother's never afraid to put all his chips in on a whim and a prayer.

Top bloke and as a member of the Stockton Massive will be found at an APAT near you.

[duke3016]

Just watching Extreme Makeover Home Edition and as usual they demolished, cleaned up, planned, built, finished off a house in 7 days (yeah right). It was a Spanish style house with a huge round tower etc etc. However it was in the middle of an area with very ordinary small houses and it sticks out like a sore thumb.  It should really have a sign on the roof with the words "Rob Me Now". Let"s hope the neighbours are not the jealous kind.......

[duke3016]

So it would seem that the UK population are the worst sleepers in the world with 37% saying that they do not get the right amount of sleep. Never fear the BBC have come to the rescue with some top tips. Now these top tips have no detail behind them, but hey draw your own conclusions.


Establish a routine.

WTF does that mean, go to bed at the same time every night. That could be 3am. Or maybe the routine of 10 pints a night, that might do it.


Eat dinner earlier

OK got that, but what about drinking?



Avoid TV and mobile phone screens before bed

How long before bed, a week. Does this mean stare at the wall for 2 hours before going to bed. Explain please


Monitor sleep with trackers.

I knew it, there IS an app for this we are saved.


Awaiting reply from BBC Lifestyle.