Looks like you are better at this as well 
hmmm very doubtful Wayne, there was some basic logic to why i fancied a back to lay on Burnley... its math based loosely on negative binomial distribution... i"m not a fan of trying to predict football, published forecast models are complete tosh imho, all the tripe by so called football experts on poisson distribution/regression or stats/rank based models/systems are complete balderdash, would anyone with an ounce of sense honestly believe that the best predictive programs are published for the public? of course they wouldn"t, the best prediction models are snapped up and used by the gambling industry/bookmakers, it crunches out its numbers and then a odds setter will adjust the models odds accounting for any extra info.....
anyhooooo"s thats my daily rant over with
i had browse of all the football expert tipsters on the internet out of interest today and boy oh boy my blood boiled at some of the math bo-llocks they come out with...
is my approach profitable? long term i don"t know... bare bones reasoning was i looked at Chelsea"s away record last year to see how often they conceded first, there defence at the time and whether or not Matic made any difference in the 2nd half of the season... hence i fancied Burnley to score first and at the odds pre-match i saw this as a half decent value back to lay bet....
on last nights showing i"m still on the fence as to whether or not Mourinho has plugged the defensive away problems his team had last year...
