... I think 9 handed its not uncommon to run into a bigger pair.
It"s not uncommon because of the quantity of hands that get dealt.
But isn"t it about 16/1 that you get dealt a pocket pair?
If that isn"t exact, the probability is still higher than 9/1.
i.e. If you are dealt a pocket pair it is likely that no one else has been dealt one - let alone a higher one.
20/52 to hit either a T, J, Q, K or A. Then 3/51 to hit the pairing card....
(52/20) x (51/3) = 44/1 to be up against a pair that dominates 99. With only 8 players to get through, those odds work really well for me.
And as well as shoving - this is also the odds that you are up against a hand that dominates you if you limp with 99.
But given the wide range of peoples shoving hands and the short stacks all round - there is a much higher chance that you will get a hand on your table to shove after you limp.
Obviously there is a risk that you will pick up a load of limpers and nobody will raise, there is a risk that even if you only had one limper they might hit top pair, there is a risk that a higher pair will be dealt (like in this case), and there is a risk that any hands you are beating pre flop outdraw you - but I think in this kind of scenario then an opportunity to gamble for a double up against one player, or for the chip lead against many players is too good an opportunity to miss.
But shoving and taking the blinds is the safe option if you"re too risk averse.
BUT, shoving rather than limping will give you another chance of winning - people might fold. A shove here could get rid of anything up to AJ for example...... but a limp could potentially put you into a flop against overcards. what would you do if you limped and everyone folded round to the BB.... flop then comes T 8 4.... and he shoves? he might shove there with any two cards and you would have a tough decision. Personally I would prefer to take the decision and the play out of the hand preflop with such a marginal hand
Yes - good spot - I did know what the worst case scenario was (and if I was the big blind I would be shoving on any flop).
But the main point is what I"m arguing against - and was Kinboshi"s point.
Yes it would be good to get the blinds - but 99 really isn"t that bad.
(in the absence of the big blind shoving post flop)
(a) I think a shove from a later position player is a fairly good proposition.
Everybody is short stacked and you"ve shown weakness by limping.
The other stacks range from 2.5bb to 20bb, if you are dealt something like A4 you might not be too interested if you are up at the 20bb range - but I think you would be if you were down around the 2.5 - 4 range.
I think players with the lower stack sizes are going to be looking at any ace, any pair and possibly any 2 court cards (if you"re lucky).
(b) Even if you get a limper or 2 - they are likely to miss the flop - shove all in, what are they going to do?
Either they make a completely stupid call with nothing, they think you"ve got nothing and make a slightly stupid call with something like AK (so you"re miles ahead) or they make a sensible fold.
(c) Even if they hit the flop - how confident are they going to be with their bottom or second pair when you push all in.
i.e. The chances of them hitting top pair or two pair - very, very small. If they have a pocket pair, what are the chances they would have limped after you rather than raised or shoved pre flop? Small chance that they might limp with a baby pair and hit trips - but all these things combined - still very small.
(d) If you get 3 or 4 all ins pre flop.
Yes you are likely to lose the hand - but you are still likely to be the favourite (bearing in mind how unlikely it is that somebody will be dealt a higher pocket pair)
and if you win you have the tournament chip lead or up around it.
(e) If you get a lot limpers pre flop.
In this case I think you misjudged the early limp, because if you had shoved I think you would have got a caller - and it"s a double up you need.
Naturally you can misjudge things like this, but as I"ve freely admitted - this limp, shove (or limp, call a shove) play - is a bit of a gamble.
But I think it"s a reasonable gamble to make.