Author Topic: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.  (Read 9254 times)

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TopPair2Pair

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2008, 18:00:37 PM »
Quote
and for the guy that loves playing from the SB, you may have a leak in your game imo


Not sure if its a leak! Seems more like a full blown get your arm bands & life jacket out flood!
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Departed

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2008, 18:27:05 PM »
From a maths point of view, you would be shoving effective stack of 5000 into a pot of 1275.
If they fold more than 5000/(5000+1275) = 80% of time, then you will automatically make a profit on this in the long run.

If they"re only calling your shove with QQ,KK,AA,AK then they"re calling with about 3% of possible cards. So doing the maths they need to be raising at least  
3 / (1- 0.80) = 15% of their cards for them to fold 80% of time.

Above is a bit techincal but it leads to the conclusion that if the button reraiser is reraising lighter than 15% (which according to your read he could be) you could probably shove on him profitably.

The trouble is this does not consider the cut-off raiser. And also I know this a winner take all tournament but getting them to fold will only add 1275 to your stack, and if they do call you"re behind more often than not.

I think I would still fold, and look for a post flop opportunity rather than get all in now in a rather marginal situation.

Santino67

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #17 on: August 04, 2008, 20:13:54 PM »
Isn"t it hellish playing against people who"re willing to raise it up to 20*BB in the first level, and only 5 handed  :o

That"s even worse than our local casino 10 seat 3000 chip SnG, which can very quickly turn into a complete all-in/fold slugfest..........but our blinds at least start at 100/100  :D

Fold & let them fight it out or put the lot in the middle then send them all home for spoiling your night  >:(
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REvans84

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2008, 14:38:13 PM »
Just elaborating on what you said Departed.
I mentioned earlier that he 3 bets light ALOT and his range of 3 betting was Any Pair, any Ace and any Broadway which equals a total of 329 hands.

Once I have shoved his range narrows down (But not much at all really, I should of mentioned this earlier - He will still call a 4 bet/4 bet shove light too) to calling me with 66+, A7+ and still any Broadway which equals a total of 225 hands. So he is folding 104 hands.
104/329 = 32%.

My equity according to Poker Stove against his calling range is 59.86%.

So,
The amount of chips on average I would win when he folds to my shove is:
1275 (pot) x 0.32 = 408.

The amount of chips I would win on average when he calls and I win the pot at a showdown is:
(10275 x 0.68) x 0.599 = 4185

The amount of chips I would lose on average when he calls and I lose the pot at a showdown is:
(-5000 x 0.68) x 0.401 = -1363

So my EV is -1363 + 408 + 4185 = 3230.

Adding over 60% to my stack surely cant be bad! :-p
« Last Edit: August 08, 2008, 14:43:08 PM by REvans84 »

Departed

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2008, 15:35:00 PM »

Once I have shoved his range narrows down (But not much at all really, I should of mentioned this earlier - He will still call a 4 bet/4 bet shove light too) to calling me with 66+, A7+ and still any Broadway which equals a total of 225 hands. So he is folding 104 hands.
104/329 = 32%.


Ah ok - if he calls a shove really light as well then that certainly changes thing and means a shove from you is going to be profitable long-term.

The amount of chips I would win on average when he calls and I win the pot at a showdown is:
(10275 x 0.68) x 0.599 = 4185


You can only take the incremental increase into account in your calculation.

So it is 5275 * 0.68 * 0.599 = 2149

This means overall your EV is 2k lower, ie about +1k overall

So still profitable based on the ranges you stated but only adds 20% to stack, rather than 60%



ThinkerJE

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #20 on: August 10, 2008, 17:29:37 PM »
Easy fold for me at this stage of the game, why risk so much with TT?  Let the 2 of them battle it out and wait for a better spot.

noble1

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Re: TT in the SB after a raise and re-raise.
« Reply #21 on: August 16, 2008, 15:27:54 PM »
lmao intresting one, well if i was you and i had your reads it would be killer poker for me baby and reraise all in, 5 handed TT is quite a strong hand...... if they want to dance this early in a sng lets give em some action  :)  ;D

after all its winner takes all , chip up or have a quick visit to the bar [nice]
« Last Edit: August 16, 2008, 15:32:26 PM by noble1 »