strategy question - how would you play this hand ??

[noble1]

This is how i currently would play this hand against this type of player [this hand actually occurred 2 weeks ago and got me thinking],what i would like to ask you guys is,do you think it would be +ev for me in the long run ??
I"ve run some numbers already but i need some different perspectives.Any comments would be much appreciated.

Game: $1/$2 No-Limit six-max

Effective stacks: $200. I have -Qs on the button. It"s folded to me and i make it $8. The small blind folds and the big blind calls. The big blind is your average fishy player. He calls too much pre-flop and calls too many streets with dominated hands.

The board comes -4s-Tc.   My opponent checks and you would... ?
How i played it is -
After taking the lead pre-flop and flopping the second nut flush draw and two overcards, i have a strong hand. This bet is a continuation bet/strong semi-bluff.
My bet has a split goal - either way is good. If i bet and he folds, i win. If i bet and he calls, i have a strong hand and i am building a pot should i hit. So i bet $14 into a $17 pot,in this situation he calls.

The turn brings the 9 h.
My opponent once again checks.The range i tend to put this type of player on at this point with this texture flop and his actions are - He could have a mid pocket pair as well as a ten or maybe even overcards. He probably does not have an overpair.[though i dont totally rule it out]
I bet $35  [vary it a little $5 or so +or- if i get similar situations] into a $45 pot and once again my opponent calls.
The river drops down the .
There"s $115 in the pot. My opponent again checks.
My goal here is betting for value,the range i put him on was - most likely he has some kind of ten (AT-JT), JJ, a flush draw or Q-J for a straight draw.Since i"ve determined my opponent is a bit of a calling station, i surmise he"ll call with a worse hand.
Does anyone disagree with this ??
i actually bet $50 and my opponent calls with -Jd.
So success here , any arguments here for checking the river ? and do you think it would be +ev in the long run ?

[HaworthBantam]

I would have checked the river - but I am a wuss.

[coprey]

Risky game cash. If this guy is a calling station why are you juicing the pot with K high. I reckon you were behind until the river, but had managed to commit yourself to the hand because of the amount you had already invested. I understand you have a great drawing hand but if you dont hit you are paying the fish. Having said this after his check on the river I would have value bet my top pair.

[AMRN]

I think I would have played it exactly as you did.  If he had made any sort of decent hand and was trap checking, surely he would bet the river for value..... so when he checks the river I have to feel I"m ahead and it is therefore correct to value bet.

[Swinebag]

I"m no cash expert, but if you were convinced you are ahead and he is a fishy type who will call with a worse hand, I would go all in on the river.

[TopPair2Pair]

I am not going to comment regarding the +ev in the long run as will just generate random inaccurate waffle! ie my concerns would be around the BB holding a KJ/J8/AQ hitting the Q on the river. Would therefore like to know if he has a history of check raising and what he check raises and when, if I were going to waffle inaccurately which seems to have begun"eth!

If he had any of the above hands minus AQ would he have played it any differently?

I would also factor in what I believe the BB perspective regarding my table image at the time (+ other sessions participated in) and what he thinks I could have.

[kinboshi]

I certainly don"t think he"s holding a pair TT+ here. 

Otherwise, I don"t see anything wrong with how you played it, although I do like Swinebag"s shove on the river as a value bet that gets called often enough to make it +EV.

I hate the way your opponent played the hand though.

[Zanshin]

I would have played the hand as you did up to the river but then I would have checked (I am a nit though )

The bet of $50 on the river will have
most worse hands folding (no help)
few worse hands calling (great news)
very few better hands folding (great if they do)
few better hands calling (bad news)
most better hands raising or pushing (very bad news)

When the push comes you now have a pot of approx $308 with $93 for you to call... what would you have done at that point? Cut your losses and fold or convince yourself that the call is worthwhile?

If he had raised another $50 you are almost committed to call with what will most likely be the worst hand.

Sorry typed all this a bit quickly so may not make sense (like most of my play )

[Mikeyboy9361]

I play mainly cash and as such would agree with the way you played it, other than you had to be scared of him hitting Q on the river holding AQ ( within his range?), having checked all the way he probably would still check again to trap you. There fore I would probably have checked behind him and be happy with a decent pot. The way your opponent played it was pretty terrible, but having an up and down draw on the river he was never going to lay it down at that stage.
It is always difficult to comment on these hands after the event, cos at the end of the day you play the man as you have pegged him.

[noble1]

i had discounted AQ from my range for him when i bet the turn which he check called.
He was fishy for 1/2 nl but not bad enough to call only 5 possible outs [wish he was or i"d have a hey day ]

my read -
The big blind is your average fishy player. He calls too much pre-flop and calls too many streets with dominated hands.

my reasons for my bets on each street -
Well, this is an easy bet for me [against this type of player]. After taking the lead pre-flop and flopping the second nut flush draw and two overcards, i have a strong hand. This bet is a continuation bet/strong semi-bluff.My bet has a split goal - either way is good. If i bet and he folds, i win. If i bet and he calls, i have a strong hand and i"m building a pot should i hit.
TURN -
Now i have the option of checking or betting. I did pick up three more outs with the . Now any jack also gives me a straight.
If i check the turn -
By checking, i gain a free shot at my 12 outs to a near nut hand as well as six more outs to top pair. However, if i check and the river blanks, i have a very small chance of winning the pot. So what checking accomplishes is a free shot at my many outs.
If i bet the turn -
Now the betting argument. Against a ten i have 18 outs. My equity in this hand is very strong.
My opponent could also be calling with a wide range of hands on the flop. He could have a mid pocket pair as well as a ten or maybe even overcards. He probably does not have an overpair.
This means i have 18 clear outs. I can also win this pot with a bet on the turn. If my opponent was calling the flop really light, he"ll likely fold to the turn bet. My goal in betting the turn is the exact same as when i bet the flop. Plus i don"t mind if he calls because of my outs and i really don"t mind if he folds.
The river -
Should i bet or check through? Well, to make a properly informed decision i must look at what my opponent"s range consists of. I know my opponent is fairly bad. His flop call could mean anything. His turn call defines his range a little better.
He most likely has some kind of ten (AT-JT), JJ, a flush draw or Q-J for a missed straight draw. Now i know what a check would accomplish. It will let me show down my hand and see if it is best.
Now, if i bet, i have to decide whether i"m betting to make a better hand fold (not likely) or to make a worse hand call. Obviously my bet will not make any better hand fold. So i had to decide if a worse hand will call.
Since i"ve determined my opponent is a bit of a calling station, i surmise he"ll call with a worse hand. My goal, therefore, is betting for value,but i dont think the all in is an option just in case he has played QTo or 9To badly.
The range i put him on are - ATo KTo QTo [but i"d expect him to lead turn or the river,so i just about discount it] JTo JJ maybe,a missed flush draw, QJo [he"d call 2 over cards to a flop bet,picked up a straight draw on the turn, T8o T9 [again i"d expect him to lead turn or river with this though,so i discount it]
Hands like KsJs or QsTs are out as i hold the King and Queen. KJo is out as i dont think he"d call the turn bet with it.So with the likely hands i think he has he wont call a huge bet but will call a value bet.
So the hand may have started out as a semi-bluff but by the end turned into a value bet.
My thoughts on the turn as being +ev in the long run are that %50 of the  time if he folds i will be up in the long run if i play it this way.

What do you think ? flawed logic or ok ?

[TopPair2Pair]

i had discounted AQ from my range for him when i bet the turn which he check called.

I dont understand. Why?

[noble1]

i had discounted AQ from my range for him when i bet the turn which he check called.

I dont understand. Why?

i had discounted it because i had not seen any evidence that he would call just 2 over cards to 3/4 size bet on the turn.
It happens in 5c10c 10c20c 25c50c but from then on there are very few players that check call 2 over cards out of position to 3/4 pot bet on the turn, maybe bluff by leading in this situation or a check raise bluff , these are ways i"d play any 2 cards if i"d put my opponent on a semi-bluff which had missed on the turn.[if i were in his position with a read of some sort]
Remember if he had AQo and called the turn figuring he had 4 live jacks 3 queens and 3 aces and that i,ve got a ten with no ace or queen kicker, he his only % 9 to win thats roughly 10to1 not a good call... If he figured me for a under pair say 55 to 88 he his only %13 to win which is 6.7to1 .. If you pokerstove all the combination of hands my opponent could put me on,,, all he his beating is a missed flush draw,so he"s out of position with a pot that is getting large with AQo getting odds of 2.4to1 , do you still think he would call ?? i know i said he was bad but he"s not that bad  
and like i said in my above piece , the turn helped me define a better hand range for him when he just check called.
If i saw someone make plays with just 2 over cards in a situation like this , at this particular limit,i would make sure i was sitting at there table every time they played

the turn bet for me is better than a check on this texture type board because the bet %50 of the time will make him fold [maybe more] and also if i were to check the turn it would help him to put me on a missed flush draw looking for a free card on the river  , which would put me in a tricky situation if he leads out on the river [i have defined his hand on the turn with a bet, if i was to check the turn and he leads out on river ,, with less info it would be harder for me to narrow his range]
That is why i prefer to bet the turn in this situation because if he had called the flop with over cards like AK , AQ or AJ i dont want to give them a free card on the turn,a strong bet will make them fold.

[biffa85]

I understand your comments regarding a turn bet, but what would you have done if he had check/raised allin on the turn, something that he could have done with a openender as a semibluff???  You feel sick probably......

[noble1]

 Posted by: biffa85
Insert Quote
I understand your comments regarding a turn bet, but what would you have done if he had check/raised allin on the turn, something that he could have done with a openender as a semibluff???  You feel sick probably...... Grin








i would be thrilled if he did because that call to a open ender equity wise is a profitable call  
remember his hand was QhJd .............
on the turn %13.63
on the turn %86.36

if he had-
JTo he would be %61.36  me %38.63
if he check raised all in it would be 143 to call a 258 pot , the odds are 1.8to1 i would need %35 equity to make it a correct call KQs in this situation is %38 so long term a small profit to be had

if he had 2 pair say 9To its not good %77 to %22
if he had a set its the same scenario as 2 pair
an over pair to the board i"m getting a good price to call still
an under pair is a 60 / 40 again correct price to call
but this was a read dependant situation as i knew he was calling raises to much and going to showdowns light, also the turn bet if i was against a solid player who check raised me here , to be honest i would fold,but like i said this was a player read situation if this player check raised all in i would call due to the fact he had shown down light quite a few times..

please remember i put my read on the player in the 1st post if i had said he was a solid TAG this hand would be played out differently.

[biffa85]

Yes knowing his hand certainly shows a call to be profitable, but would you really have been thrilled to call if he had shoved the turn?

It"s easy to say it"s a profitable after the event once you know his cards, but during the hand all you had at the turn was a gut str8, flush draw and two overs.  I"m not saying you couldn"t call here, I"m just saying your bet on the turn opened you up to the possibility of being check/raised, and that if you were it wouldn"t be a nice situation to put yourself in.

using your comments to define his hand ranges of 66+,A9s+,K9s,Q10s+,J10s+,A9o+K9o+,Q10o+,J10o+

you get an equity of 43.7% (poker stove)

so you bet $35 into a pot of $45 making the pot $80 and he raises you allin for a total of $178, so it"s a pot of $258 and it"s $143 to call.

43.7% of the pot $258 = $112.75, which is less then the amount you have to risk making this a -ev play in calling his shove on the turn.

My brain seems to have stopped working, so can"t seem to put this in odds terms, I"m sure better brains than I could.

If my workings are flawed apologies, would be keen to get feed back on these workings, whether confirming them or showing where I"ve got it wrong.