Wadda'ya make of this then?

[RioRodent]

Full Tilt Poker Game #8546128118: $14,000 Guarantee (64971183), Table 37 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:24:37 ET - 2008/10/18
Seat 1: replique36 (2,685)
Seat 2: msorin (3,555)
Seat 3: WestMist (3,460)
Seat 4: djhsch (3,515)
Seat 5: Mattutaylor (4,270)
Seat 6: RioRodent (5,380)
Seat 7: 1618bia (3,605)
Seat 8: Redfox28 (3,600)
Seat 9: LJABBOTT (2,930)
djhsch posts the small blind of 25
Mattutaylor posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RioRodent [ jc  ad ]
RioRodent raises to 175
1618bia folds
Redfox28 calls 175
LJABBOTT folds
replique36 folds
msorin calls 175
WestMist folds
djhsch folds
Mattutaylor folds
*** FLOP *** [  ts :: ]
RioRodent has 15 seconds left to act
RioRodent bets 400
Redfox28 folds
msorin calls 400
*** TURN *** [ ts :: ] [ td ]
RioRodent has 15 seconds left to act
RioRodent checks
msorin bets 2,980, and is all in


What"s he got?

And what do I do?

And reasons for above?

[Waz1892]

Full Tilt Poker Game #8546128118: $14,000 Guarantee (64971183), Table 37 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:24:37 ET - 2008/10/18
Seat 1: replique36 (2,685)
Seat 2: msorin (3,555)
Seat 3: WestMist (3,460)
Seat 4: djhsch (3,515)
Seat 5: Mattutaylor (4,270)
Seat 6: RioRodent (5,380)
Seat 7: 1618bia (3,605)
Seat 8: Redfox28 (3,600)
Seat 9: LJABBOTT (2,930)
djhsch posts the small blind of 25
Mattutaylor posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RioRodent [ jc  ad ]
RioRodent raises to 175
1618bia folds
Redfox28 calls 175
LJABBOTT folds
replique36 folds
msorin calls 175
WestMist folds
djhsch folds
Mattutaylor folds
*** FLOP *** [  ts :: ]
RioRodent has 15 seconds left to act
RioRodent bets 400
Redfox28 folds
msorin calls 400
*** TURN *** [ ts :: ] [ td ]
RioRodent has 15 seconds left to act
RioRodent checks
msorin bets 2,980, and is all in


What"s he got?

And what do I do?

And reasons for above?

OK..always avoided saying what i think as i really don"t think im anyway near the standard of players on this site..but..

What"s he got? ..over cards....
And what do I do? ..fold

And reasons for above?....he has to respect your under the gun raise..and the call before his chance to act...as he flat called maybe ak, aqs....(aa, kk qq..only if he known to you as slow paying before??)... Your flop play standard continuation bet.."easy call" for him with stated hands i give him....maybe now added to his range a lucky flush draw

turn...checking..im guesin he has you on overcards...missing the flop...so wants to take it now..with the "safety " of a flush draw??.....hence the all in....good size pot...

think you have to fold....and wait for better position....but im guessin as my description doenst show anything amazin..i"m way off??

by good to find out...and ( so i learn...what u think of my analysis?..)..may not do this again....!!..lol

[Waz1892]

wow i use    .....         way too much

[lukybugur]

What"s he got?

I"m guessing A8 and he"s happy to take down the pot here or that you"re loose / bad enough to call with 89s or 87s - a hand you could have raised with pf.

I may also play 88 or 33 this way, happy to play it this aggressively / tricky on the turn hoping you"re holding a 10 and and can"t let it go.

99 also possible. As another T has come out it makes it less likely you"re holding one so shoving you off an AK, AQ or AJ kinda hand here (before an overcard on the river makes it scarier for him) is quite likely IMO.

And what do I do?

Fold.

And reasons for above?

You"ve got A high.

Unless you"ve seen him float > shove before ...

His OPR stats tell us he goes deep in these regularly in these so probably isn"t making this play lightly unless you"ve got him pegged as a loose / erratic player. (I see he finished 14th in this particular event )

[RioRodent]

What"s he got?

(I see he finished 14th in this particular event )

No he didn"t!!  

[lukybugur]

Oops, sorry Alan, I was looking at yesterday"s result.

OK then. If he"s played it decently, 33, 88, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, T8s, AT, A3s, A8s. He"s not short enough that he has to be making reckless plays at this stage.

If he"s played it like a loon pf and got lucky, T3, 83.

If he"s played this hand with the intention of floating you (assuming he has you as tight passive), any two cards.

With AJo though, there"s just so much that beats you so fold is still the best play. Unless you have VERY good reason to suspect he"s stealing. If you"re wrong, calling would still leave you with 36BBs - more than enough to build it back up but really not worth it.

[hi_am_chris]

dont think you can call, just say nb and move on (even if it isnt really) strange bet

[AMRN]

The cards are irrelevant in this play - he has position, and that"s what he"s beaten you with.

Lukybugur has defined a potential range, but the fact is he could have any two cards. He was getting better than 2:1 to call preflop in a low blind level, and had good implied odds if he caught a flop.... and if he missed the flop he would be able to play the hand in position.

Your continuation bet was standard, and if he is indeed playing position against you a floating call here is also standard if he is prepared to try and take it away from you later - he needs to find out what you do on the turn. If you have have missed the flop he probably thinks you will check the turn at which point he will bet...... the fact that the turn paired the board made his bluff a really easy one, and one that you would have difficulty calling even if you had AA.

Of course I may be talking rubbish and he may just be a donkey who called you preflop with 10 3!

[Swinebag]

easy fold as you are only beating a bluff or semi bluff (and you may be losing to some of those too).

btw, I fold AJo UTG, but thats me

Given that you posted what seems like a standard hand, I reckon you made a hero call, he had 79s and missed giving you a monster pot. nh sir!!

[hi_am_chris]

if he had a monster wouldnt he usually be value betting the turn rather than just shipping it in, its not like if he bets he has to go all in there.

[TopPair2Pair]

btw, I fold AJo UTG, but thats me

I"m quite happy to play AJo from an early position if bossing the table with a solid image or have the most chips at table looking to outplay others.

I fold my cards to the all in on this board. Too easy for him to have a Full house given his in the cutoff and 22-TT is pretty standard in this position for the educated player. Plus the other 6 PP"s in this range are beating us at this stage in the hand

[RioRodent]

I have to say I"m rather suprised by all the "you have to fold" opinions... but then I have been playing almost exclusively cash for the last 8 months! (Not that I would make this play in cash game, just that I"m out of touch with playing tournies!)

Given that you posted what seems like a standard hand,

Is it really a standard play? Lev 3 of a deepstack tourney, just horse it all-in vs. an UTG raise from the big stack - regardless of whether it"s a bluff or not.

I reckon you made a hero call, he had 79s and missed giving you a monster pot. nh sir!!

Well I did make the call, not sure about the hero bit...

RioRodent calls 2,980
msorin shows [  jd  kh ]
RioRodent shows [ jc  ad ]
*** RIVER *** [  ts  ::  td ] [ ]
msorin shows a pair of Tens
RioRodent shows a pair of Tens
RioRodent wins the pot (7,360) with a pair of Tens

I thought it was quite a simple call;
i) if he has a ten or a FH, why go all-in?
ii) if he takes my check as weakness AND he has a hand with any showdown value ie. pocket pair, 8 or 3, or a big Ace why not take a free card?
iii) can"t have him on a premium pkt pr as no PF raise.

I think he has air;
i) if I"m wrong and he has a small pkt pr... I have 2 overcards and will *still have plenty of chips to play with* if I don"t improve.
ii) if I"m wrong and I"m drawing dead... I *still have plenty of chips to play with.*

*This is obviously key... if losing leaves me with less than 20BBs I would make a reluctant fold.

There have been a couple of other things quickly went through my mind, but I"ve been to bed since then and have forgotten... it"s an age thing you know!

[Swinebag]

I like the thinking, Alan

I guess I play too many donkaments where players who shove their stacks with KJ, also donk shove with AK and AQ and also shove to "protect" with holdings like A3, A8 and PP below 77.

Given that you aren"t calling off your whole tourney, a call seems reasonable though given your reasoning.

I have to say that even IF I had gone through your reasoning and thought there was a chance I was ahead, I would probably still fold. It just seems too much of my stack and If the guy can shove with air you can surely catch him out later in a better spot with a better hand than Ace high.

wp anyway, where did you finish up?

[noble1]

hmm i wont say to much,only this - once you get 2 callers with position on you what were your reads on them?[hand ranges,styles of play] once you decided to continuation bet on that texture of flop what was your plan if you was called? and how did you think the table perceived your own image to be to them?

[noble1]

just some thoughts on hero calls in low buy in mtts - they are difficult because at this level so many players bet to represent the hand they actually do have,which is the opposite the point of poker.Also do you play pots out of position a lot? i like your recount of the situation BUT if this was a smart loose player this sort of bet is common at this level and they actually do have a hand.
Hence the question in the above reply as i"m intrested in your thought process pre-flop and on the flop.