Author Topic: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?  (Read 8753 times)

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George2Loose

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2009, 17:54:49 PM »
ur calculating your odds against his range so it"s a snap call.

Biggest mistake a lot of players make is shoving with no f/e and then not understanding the call.

I"m calling here with 82 off if I"ve opened and got shoved on in this spot.
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noble1

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2009, 18:16:57 PM »

ur calculating your odds against his range so it"s a snap call.

Biggest mistake a lot of players make is shoving with no f/e and then not understanding the call.

I"m calling here with 82 off if I"ve opened and got shoved on in this spot.


loose george 82o nearly as bad as me lol lol i"d open up utg with 73o  ;D and call... 8)

Waz1892

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2009, 19:13:10 PM »

Do not confused between "pot odds" and chances of winning (referred to as equity).

You are talking about your chances of winning here but your calculation is not how you work out your chances of winning here.

firstly when calculating outs (lets say 6 for arguments sake here) you have to take it from unseen cards and not cards in the deck. So there are 48 unseen cards. this does not mean that his odds are 6 in 48 of winning (or 1 in 8 or 7 to 1 - whatever). The odds you worked out Waz were the chances of a winning card hitting "first card out". Of course during the showdown there will be five chances of hitting the winning card so your chances of hitting are greatly increased.

in this particular instance there is also a chance that JK only has 3 outs so this affects the calculation. If it is a coin flip against a lower pair then there is the chance that JK can win if two pair come on the board to counterfeit the smaller pair. There are of course straight and flush possibilities for JK to win.

So.....

all these possibilities of winning (however likely or unlikey) make calculating the chance of winning near impossible

enter our friend....."pokerstove"

this program will work out JKs equity against single hands as well as against a range of hands that could be reshoving against it.

Of course, during an online tournament you haven"t really got time to plug all this in so it comes down to playing around with pokerstove and familiarising yourself with the variables so that you have a good idea of the value of your hand against various hand ranges.

The key calculation that you can make are your "pot odds" which for KJ fella can be worked out as roughly just under 3 to 1. As a guide this can be argued as a call with with any 2 cards let alone the "powerhouse" that is KJ.

noble explains this stuff much better but I hope this helps


understand now the unseen cards..(did remember this afterwards..but ty)

pot odds - (for clarity assurance purpose)//amount required to bet..against amount to win in pot..then you have the implied odds if turn and river..etc)

summery - once pot odds are determined, (3-1) compare to number of outs you have (pokerstove) 7-1..bad call?

yet people are saying std call........I have much to learn!!

off to get pokerstove and re-read harrington.

I so want to learn more of the maths behind it, such an edge at my level, and I want to get better of course, I"m getting confused as to what I should be working out and when, let alone how!!




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WarBwastardo

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2009, 19:38:03 PM »


Do not confused between "pot odds" and chances of winning (referred to as equity).

You are talking about your chances of winning here but your calculation is not how you work out your chances of winning here.

firstly when calculating outs (lets say 6 for arguments sake here) you have to take it from unseen cards and not cards in the deck. So there are 48 unseen cards. this does not mean that his odds are 6 in 48 of winning (or 1 in 8 or 7 to 1 - whatever). The odds you worked out Waz were the chances of a winning card hitting "first card out". Of course during the showdown there will be five chances of hitting the winning card so your chances of hitting are greatly increased.

in this particular instance there is also a chance that JK only has 3 outs so this affects the calculation. If it is a coin flip against a lower pair then there is the chance that JK can win if two pair come on the board to counterfeit the smaller pair. There are of course straight and flush possibilities for JK to win.

So.....

all these possibilities of winning (however likely or unlikey) make calculating the chance of winning near impossible

enter our friend....."pokerstove"

this program will work out JKs equity against single hands as well as against a range of hands that could be reshoving against it.

Of course, during an online tournament you haven"t really got time to plug all this in so it comes down to playing around with pokerstove and familiarising yourself with the variables so that you have a good idea of the value of your hand against various hand ranges.

The key calculation that you can make are your "pot odds" which for KJ fella can be worked out as roughly just under 3 to 1. As a guide this can be argued as a call with with any 2 cards let alone the "powerhouse" that is KJ.

noble explains this stuff much better but I hope this helps


understand now the unseen cards..(did remember this afterwards..but ty)

pot odds - (for clarity assurance purpose)//amount required to bet..against amount to win in pot..then you have the implied odds if turn and river..etc)

summery - once pot odds are determined, (3-1) compare to number of outs you have (pokerstove) 7-1..bad call?

yet people are saying std call........I have much to learn!!

off to get pokerstove and re-read harrington.

I so want to learn more of the maths behind it, such an edge at my level, and I want to get better of course, I"m getting confused as to what I should be working out and when, let alone how!!


Where are you getting 7/1 from?  If you have kings or aces he"s essentially dead - something like 8/1 - 9/1 dog.  But if one of his cards are live he"s roughly 3/1 or just under. 

Have you used a poker calculator?  http://www.thehendonmob.com/pokercalc/index.html  

Put the guys KJ in one box and bunch of different hands he could have been expecting to face in this situation i.e. under pairs, Kings, Aces, AK, AQ, etc it"ll give the percentages.

Swinebag

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2009, 19:43:05 PM »


summery - once pot odds are determined, (3-1) compare to number of outs you have (pokerstove) 7-1..bad call?

yet people are saying std call........I have much to learn!!



dont know where you are getting 7-1 from (I thought I explained that this was the chance of hitting your card "first card")

nobles earlier post explains KJs chances of winning against the re shovers possible range.....aaaah here it is..


his odds of 2.73 = 1/3.73*100=26.80% equity so even if he thinks your range is -
88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo
his equity to call is 31% so it is a auto call for a decent player considering blinds and what he has left behind..
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noble1

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2009, 20:05:39 PM »
right Waz1892 slow down a tad, learn each part 1 at a time and it will come..

pot odds lets you decide whether to call - eg a flush draw or str8 draw etc etc

pot equity usually helps determine when you should bet/call. - eg in various situations equity allows you to profit by betting or raising in situations where you have a distinct advantage in the hand, or can gain that advantage by not allowing other players to continue . Say in post flop play you have a set and your opponent has flopped a made flush AND he goes all in and the odds are 2.5to1 to call you would use equity to see if it is correct to fold or call his all in. As a set is 34.44% to win it is correct to call as 2.5to1 pot odds turned into equity looks like -

ok add 2.5 and 1 together equals 3.5 when online or reviewing a history have a calculator at hand
all we do now is divide 1by3.5 then times by 100 will be our minimum equity to call  so 1/3.5*100=28.57%  
in the above set v made flush we know are 34.44% [1.9to1] to improve so this would be a good call THE ODDS/EQUITY TO CALL IS HIGHER [28.57%  2.5to1]

34.44% is 1.90to1    the odds we are getting are 28.57%  2.50to1  

i hope i"m not mixing you up even more, keep asking till it sinks in...also get pokerstove downloaded [its free]
« Last Edit: January 14, 2009, 20:07:49 PM by noble1 »

Waz1892

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2009, 20:18:43 PM »

As a set is 34.44% to win it is correct to call as 2.5to1 pot odds turned into equity looks like -

how do you work out the set is 33.44% (pokerstove?)

Quote

ok add 2.5 and 1 together equals 3.5 when online or reviewing a history have a calculator at hand
all we do now is divide 1by3.5 then times by 100 will be our minimum equity to call  so 1/3.5*100=28.57%  
in the above set v made flush we know are 34.44% [1.9to1] to improve so this would be a good call THE ODDS/EQUITY TO CALL IS HIGHER [28.57%  2.5to1]

34.44% is 1.90to1    the odds we are getting are 28.57%  2.50to1  


working this lot out in 30secs..is beyond me at the mo for online games!!

Quote


i hope i"m not mixing you up even more, keep asking till it sinks in...also get pokerstove downloaded [its free]
I will do!  Thank-you for trying to get to me understand, and your patience all of you!

PS - Fked up on the 7-1..ignore me.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2009, 20:20:29 PM by Waz1892 »
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Waz1892

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2009, 20:21:16 PM »
ffs i can"t even work out how to quote properly!!    >:(
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noble1

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2009, 21:22:23 PM »
Quote
how do you work out the set is 33.44% (pokerstove?)


yes. :)

Waz1892

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Re: Can I have comments on this hand please, dubious pot odds call?
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2009, 21:34:08 PM »

Quote
how do you work out the set is 33.44% (pokerstove?)


yes. :)


bang and the dirt is gone... ;D
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