How many times does Kings run into Aces pre flop

[LongshanksED]

i"ve just had KK run into AA 3 times in the final table of a 30 seat SnG

went into final table with chip lead of 10k

2 orbits later and im down to 560 with 400 BB

[kinboshi]

Isn"t it something like 22/1 that AA will face KK (or the other way round of course!) on a full table?

[LongshanksED]

so for it to happen 3 times on the bounce would be...

22 x 22 x 22 ?

anyway as duncan bannatyne says - im out and on the bubble too

[noble1]

Pre-flop AA versus KK is 0.004% or 1 chance in 22,560 heads up play

KK vs. AA [9 handed]

[ 6*8*P(48,14)/2^7 - 6*C(8,2)*P(46,12)/2^6 ] / [ P(50,16)/2^8 ] = 25.6-to-1


KK vs. AA [10 handed]

9*6/C(50,2) - C(9,2)/C(50,4) = 21.8-to-1

KK vs AA [6 handed]

5*6/C(50,2) - C(5,2)/C(50,4) = 39.9-to-1

ALL GONADS   if your on a tight table and you get 3bet 4bet and it comes round to you it is an easy fold  

check poker tracker if you have it and if KK is running 80% plus from a decent sample of hands say 30,000 then your running normal...............

[LongshanksED]

each time i was the opening raise and only had one caller each time and never re raised

to even it out though i cracked aces with 10-10 on the button of another 20 man SnG so what comes around evens it

[RioRodent]

Pre-flop AA versus KK is 0.004% or 1 chance in 22,560 heads up play

KK vs. AA [9 handed]

[ 6*8*P(48,14)/2^7 - 6*C(8,2)*P(46,12)/2^6 ] / [ P(50,16)/2^8 ] = 25.6-to-1


KK vs. AA [10 handed]

9*6/C(50,2) - C(9,2)/C(50,4) = 21.8-to-1

KK vs AA [6 handed]

5*6/C(50,2) - C(5,2)/C(50,4) = 39.9-to-1

ALL GONADS   if your on a tight table and you get 3bet 4bet and it comes round to you it is an easy fold  

check poker tracker if you have it and if KK is running 80% plus from a decent sample of hands say 30,000 then your running normal...............

I"m probably going to regret asking this, but...

- Why is the equation for 9 handed a different format than 10 & 6 handed?

- What is P?

- What is C?

- What does (50,2) mean?

[tonyj444]

I"ve not done probability calculations like that since school, I can"t remember how it all works.  Out of interest though, have you calculated the odds that:

Someone has AA AND someone has KK (I think this is what you"ve done)

or

Someone has AA GIVEN someone has KK (this will be almost exactly the same as the odds that someone is dealt KK regardless of anyone elses hand).

Just curious

[noble1]

Pre-flop AA versus KK is 0.004% or 1 chance in 22,560 heads up play

KK vs. AA [9 handed]

[ 6*8*P(48,14)/2^7 - 6*C(8,2)*P(46,12)/2^6 ] / [ P(50,16)/2^8 ] = 25.6-to-1


KK vs. AA [10 handed]

9*6/C(50,2) - C(9,2)/C(50,4) = 21.8-to-1

KK vs AA [6 handed]

5*6/C(50,2) - C(5,2)/C(50,4) = 39.9-to-1

ALL GONADS   if your on a tight table and you get 3bet 4bet and it comes round to you it is an easy fold  

check poker tracker if you have it and if KK is running 80% plus from a decent sample of hands say 30,000 then your running normal...............

I"m probably going to regret asking this, but...

- Why is the equation for 9 handed a different format than 10 & 6 handed?

- What is P?

- What is C?

- What does (50,2) mean?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_mathematical_symbols
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_%27em)
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=417383&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&fpart=

these are the chances of someone having AA when you have KK

[RioRodent]

Pre-flop AA versus KK is 0.004% or 1 chance in 22,560 heads up play

KK vs. AA [9 handed]

[ 6*8*P(48,14)/2^7 - 6*C(8,2)*P(46,12)/2^6 ] / [ P(50,16)/2^8 ] = 25.6-to-1


KK vs. AA [10 handed]

9*6/C(50,2) - C(9,2)/C(50,4) = 21.8-to-1

KK vs AA [6 handed]

5*6/C(50,2) - C(5,2)/C(50,4) = 39.9-to-1

ALL GONADS   if your on a tight table and you get 3bet 4bet and it comes round to you it is an easy fold  

check poker tracker if you have it and if KK is running 80% plus from a decent sample of hands say 30,000 then your running normal...............

I"m probably going to regret asking this, but...

- Why is the equation for 9 handed a different format than 10 & 6 handed?

- What is P?

- What is C?

- What does (50,2) mean?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_mathematical_symbols
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_%27em)
http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Board=&Number=417383&page=&view=&sb=5&o=&fpart=

these are the chances of someone having AA when you have KK

I see... you copied it from somewhere else and you don"t actually understand it either!

[noble1]

if thats what you think    thats ok lol lol  i take it you couldn"t be arsed to read them

[KarmaDope]

In answer to the OP: Every feckin" time I get KK, that"s how many times  

[RioRodent]

if thats what you think    thats ok lol lol  i take it you couldn"t be arsed to read them

Well, I started to... from the first link - I didn"t find P, C appears to indicate a "Complex Number" (but that whooshed me) and I didn"t find any explanation of (50,2).

The second link goes to an "error/holding page".

I started to read the 3rd link but didn"t find that that answered my questions either.

But, if you do actually understand what it all means but can"t be arsed to give a straight answer to 4 simple questions... well that"s OK.

I don"t dispute the results of the equations and I don"t actually need to understand the formulae... was just curious is all.

[noble1]

if thats what you think    thats ok lol lol  i take it you couldn"t be arsed to read them

Well, I started to... from the first link - I didn"t find P, C appears to indicate a "Complex Number" (but that whooshed me) and I didn"t find any explanation of (50,2).

The second link goes to an "error/holding page".

I started to read the 3rd link but didn"t find that that answered my questions either.

But, if you do actually understand what it all means but can"t be arsed to give a straight answer to 4 simple questions... well that"s OK.

I don"t dispute the results of the equations and I don"t actually need to understand the formulae... was just curious is all.

lol its not easy explaining probability Rio i hoped BruceZ article would as it is pretty
confusing at first...

right basically P is probability , C is combination"s/combination , (50,2) is 1225 the number of possible hand combinations   http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Combination.html but also you start getting into permutations http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Permutation.html
when dealing with combinations and number of people/total cards involved....

But, if you do actually understand what it all means but can"t be arsed to give a straight answer to 4 simple questions... well that"s OK.

i hope you see that its not easy to just give a simple answer...but i hope that answers it better  

if anyone asks what are the chances of QQ facing AA KK 10 handed its 10.8to1  
before you ask....

you can find charts like on wizard of odds to find out all sorts of probability"s which
are pretty near on the answer [or close enough they are not always spot on]


here is a fun puzzle believe it or not is part of probability , have a go but only look at the picture for 5secs then press randomize
http://www.chemical-ecology.net/java/puzzles4.htm

here are some more if your bored    
http://www.chemical-ecology.net/java/probjav.htm
or practice your black jack [probability] http://www.chemical-ecology.net/java/21-1.htm question ?? if you make an additional bet after drawing your 1st 2 cards when your probability of busting is less than 50% would you beat the dealer?

I"ve not done probability calculations like that since school, I can"t remember how it all works.  Out of interest though, have you calculated the odds that:

Someone has AA AND someone has KK (I think this is what you"ve done)

or

Someone has AA GIVEN someone has KK (this will be almost exactly the same as the odds that someone is dealt KK regardless of anyone elses hand).

Just curious

these are the odds if you are dealt KK THEN what is the chance of an opponent being dealt AA

[coprey]

Can"t say I find probability equations interesting.

However at the Virgin Festival at Dusk Till Dawn in 2008 there where 11 recorded AA v KK confrontations, in the first day. AA was winning 6 to 5, now whats the odds of that?

[Swinebag]

Can"t say I find probability equations interesting.

However at the Virgin Festival at Dusk Till Dawn in 2008 there where 11 recorded AA v KK confrontations, in the first day. AA was winning 6 to 5, now whats the odds of that?

I think thats a routine A level stats question there col. I"ll have a go...but my expertise in teaching maths doesn"t extend to A level stats.

I got 0.039 (3 dps) this is roughly a 1 in 25 chance

I thought it would be much higher so will ask a colleague

I was correct (of course)

to work it out....assuming that the probability of Aces beating Kings is 80% (0.8 ) and therefore kings beating aces is 20% (0.2)

the calculation is

(11 x 10 x 9 x 8 x 7)/(1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5) to work out the number of different combinations where Aces could beat kings 6 times in 11 races. This gives 462.

multiply this by the probability of 6 wins and 5 losses..so

462 x (0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 0.8 ) x (0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2 x 0.2)

=0.03875536896