Tough spot

[tonyj444]

Hand that came up in a local live tournament in Southampton.  It"s advertised as a deepstack (10k starting stack) but isn"t really because the level increases are too large (25/50 - 50/100 - 100/200 - 200/400 - 400/800 - 600/1200).

We"re at level 600/1200 and I think there"s 11 runners left (I believe it started with 21), so average stack is around about the 15bb mark. 

Table is 5-handed, we are in the BB with a stack of about 18k (15bb).
Action folds around to the SB who has a stack of about 15k, who thus far has been an absolute rock.  He has never to this point raised when folded to in the SB and I think the only hand of his I have seen was AK which he open shoved from the CO with about 8bb.

SB Raises to 2600.
We have 99 in the BB and call
Flop comes 852 rainbow (pot is 5200)
SB Bets 2000
We raise to 5500
SB Shoves (it takes him less than 5-seconds to come to this decision)
We fold

Basically this has been nagging at me because I really don"t like my line but I"m struggling with what other options are available. 

Pre-flop
Against any other player at the table this is an easy shove pre but I genuinely believe this guys range is something like TT+ AQ+ and have to assume he calls a shove with all of this range (slight possibility I have some FE against AQ but it"s probably 50/50).  So I don"t really want to get it in pre, hence the smooth call.

Flop
His opening bet confused me a lot.  I simply could not decide if this was a very tentative c-bet with AK/AQ or a big pair trying to entice chips into the pot.  I haven"t seen him play any flops (I only got moved to his table at about level 4), the only read I have is he is tight pre and also from speaking to him I don"t believe he is a very experienced player.  In the end I decided my 5500 raise was enough to bring a fold from AK/AQ without needlessly committing myself against overpairs.

Thought very welcome....

[Swinebag]

if you are sure you are behind his range then fold preflop

you couldn"t have got a more favourable flop than this one (barring a 9) and bled nearly half your stack on it.

Having said that, i"d shove back on him pre. The game is 5 handed so making moves are needed here. This fella may be very aware of his image and may be exploiting it.

[noble1]

Flop
His opening bet confused me a lot.  I simply could not decide if this was a very tentative c-bet with AK/AQ or a big pair trying to entice chips into the pot.  I haven"t seen him play any flops (I only got moved to his table at about level 4), the only read I have is he is tight pre and also from speaking to him I don"t believe he is a very experienced player.  In the end I decided my 5500 raise was enough to bring a fold from AK/AQ without needlessly committing myself against overpairs.

as played -
considering your read of the player/situation the call pre-flop is fine imo,on the flop
though i think i would call his bet and see what he does on the turn,the call should get the same effect as the re-raise as he may well give up betting his AK AQ hands...

has he seen you play any hands up to now tony? just wondering what your image is to him?

[kinboshi]

if you are sure you are behind his range then fold preflop

you couldn"t have got a more favourable flop than this one (barring a 9) and bled nearly half your stack on it.

Having said that, i"d shove back on him pre. The game is 5 handed so making moves are needed here. This fella may be very aware of his image and may be exploiting it.

Rob has saved me writing my thoughts.  They are exactly this.  Which I bet is fairly scary for Rob.

[noble1]

with no good reads on villain except suspicions that he is tight and considering Tonys stack size do we want to go to war with 99 in this spot pre?

it has only cost tony 3bb in total if he calls the flop bet? and if villain does have AK AQ tony is well ahead,the action villain takes on the turn will tell us a lot more as villain has left enough chips back to get away from his hand...was the small cbet a small desperate prod/in-experienced play with an ace K/Q or a value type bet trying to induce a move by tony?

[TopPair2Pair]

if you are sure you are behind his range then fold preflop

you couldn"t have got a more favourable flop than this one (barring a 9) and bled nearly half your stack on it.

Having said that, i"d shove back on him pre. The game is 5 handed so making moves are needed here. This fella may be very aware of his image and may be exploiting it.

agreed on everything here, folding 99 here is very feasible as is putting our tournement on the line. If he is as inexperienced as we think, he is probably overating his table image as well as not rly thinking about our cards. 2k into this flop with oop seems weak to me, if his minraising AA, KK, (maybe even QQ) here his checking this flop, i would be looking for any inconsistency in the "way" he betted pre and post for a reason to fold to the shove other then that given our line i"m calling.

He may just be holding TT++ thinking he has the nuts, or A8s is more likely, maybe even A2~5s.

Its probably best not to beat yourself up over this one, the flop 3bet hurts us but the majority of the time on this flop this player should fold to ur reraise but his experience=unpredictability which means its a v tough spot to determine what the best line of action should"ve been.

[noble1]

but the majority of the time on this flop this player should fold to ur reraise but his experience=unpredictability which means its a v tough spot to determine what the best line of action should"ve been.

errr call flop bet   why re-raise if we are going to fold with such a shallow stack if villain rr shoves ?

Tony wondered if there was a different option to re-raising on the flop there is by calling...

[LongshanksED]

i  wouldve called the pre flop bet and the flop bet then see what the SB would do on the turn

i"ve seen me call down with 55 (albeit with an open ended straight draw) in local tourneys only to my opponent show AQ or AK

sure the betting is getting big here though

post flop i call and see where the turn leads

[tonyj444]

Thanks for all the reaponses everyone.

Flop
has he seen you play any hands up to now tony? just wondering what your image is to him?

I had been playing what I would term "standard" tournament strategy for this stage of the comp.  Steals from position into weak opponents (but not excessively, probably averaging around the 1 per orbit mark) and a couple of re-steals from the blinds (this was specifically against the big-stack at the table who I know very well and was confident that his raising range is massive and that he has a healthy respect for my raises).  So to someone inexperienced in tournaments I may have seemed slightly aggro but I certainly never got too out of line and the only hand I remember showing at the table was AJ which I had raised from the CO and run into a short-stack shoving 33.

With regards to the rest of the comments, I definitely stand by my read that a shove pre was a bad move and I"m also pretty happy with my eventual fold.  When he shoves I don"t think I"m ahead of any of his range, so yes it hurts to fold having burned half my stack, but in this spot it is the correct decision.  He later told me he had QQ, I obviously don"t know this for sure but it is certainly in his range and I see no reason not to believe hom.

So aside from that the general consensus seems to be that I should have flatted on the flop.  I did give serious consideration to this but also worried that he may see this line as weakness and then shove any turn.  The primary reason for the raise was that against this specific player I thought it was the best way to confirm where I stood in the hand.  The problem with it is obviosuly that it cost me a high% of chips to find out, which is why I dont really like the line.  I"m just not sure I like a smooth call on the flop either because it feels a little bit like I"m merely delaying the decision but without getting too much more info.  If he is willing to make such a trappy bet with QQ, does it not follow that he may possibly check the turn to me?  Conversely if this is a bet with AK/AQ he may catch up on the turn or could conceivably shove on me.  Whilst the line I took was expensive I believe it gave me the best opportunity to define where I stood.

[Danz0r]

Hmm.

I think I call here and he shows AK/AQ.
He"ll probably catch his A on the river though, knowing my luck.

But as already said, depends exactly how tight he"s been playing etc, tough one.

[Eck]

"We"re at level 600/1200 and I think there"s 11 runners left (I believe it started with 21), so average stack is around about the 15bb mark."

"I genuinely believe this guys range is something like TT+ AQ+" Really?

You have 8k in and 10k behind with an overpair to the board if this isn"t where you wanted to find yourself then fold and wait for a better spot......