How to pick a grand national winner

[Swinebag]

Intro

For a lot of races, form is a deciding factor when making a selection. The Grand National is a unique race in the british racing calendar, in that there is no real form to go on. Therefore, it is useful to make your selection on a more scientific / trends basis rather than form. It is a myth that the National is a lottery. In a lot of ways it is quite an easy race to predict if you follow these basic guidlines......(you will need to go to sportinglife.com to check out the horses though)

Weight

Given the stiffness of test that the GN poses, you can pretty much put a line through horses carrying 11st or more. I go for 11st2 to be on the safe side.

nationality

No french winner for ages (100 years plus) from a large entry list. French horses just haven"t got the bloodstock for 4m4f. Irish trained horses have a great record.

age

pick horses aged between 8 and 12 (9 and 10 year olds have the best record)

headgear

comply or die was the first horse in 75 years to win with headgear on (It ticked all the other boxes though)

stamina

look to horses that have run over at least 24f (preferably 26f). A lot of GN horses are run over 16-20f for the season then expected to cope with the GN...not going to happen!!

national course experience

Look to horses that have run over the big fences before, either at the GN before, but preferably at another race (either earlier in the season or at the aintree festival before)

jumping ability

those with at least 2 Fs or Us against their name are best avoided, especially those that have raced and fallen at Aintree before. (hedgehunter and West tip are the only exceptions that stand out)

horses that ran in the cheltenham festival 3 weeks before are best avoided

what it says on the tin really. the best GN horses are trained specifically for this race and can even have their final prep race as a hurdle race on some dodgy provincial track (not at the world cup of jump racing!!)

Tactics

Prominent racers rule here. Discard horses that like to be held up. Most winners are normally there or thereabouts after the first circuit.

market forces

look to the first 8 in the betting. This is normally where I start when making a selection. As i put earlier, it is a myth that the GN is a lottery. The good thing is that because it is a 40 horse race you can get tremendous value on any horse in the top 8 (even the favourite). Cynics will point to Silver birch (33/1) and a few others over the years but as a trend, this is a pretty strong one.  

[Swinebag]

I posted this in the knowledge that I am not going to cardiff so am safe from a good lynching. I will put my predictions at the final declaration stage. Good luck everyone

[Honeybadg]

I look forward to your selections ...

I agree with most of what you write ... but Comply or Die did break the headgear rule ... though had won over 4 miles at Newcastle 2/3 months before - Dominant factor.

In terms of outsiders:

1987 - Maori Venture - 28/1
1989 - Little Polveir - 28/1 (I backed at 33/1)
1995 - Royal Athlete - 40/1 (80/1 in the run up to the big day)
2001 - Red Marauder - 33/1
2002 - Bindaree - 20/1
2007 - Silver Birch - 33/1

Also worth noting that Papillon was 33/1 (which I backed) on the morning of the National backed into 10/1 on the day.

Do you think the 11 stone (or 11 stone 2) rule holds this year ... most years there are lots running off 10 stone 0 ... this year I think the lightest is going to be c10 stone 4 or 5.

I think that I did say it was "a lottery" elsewhere ... maybe a skill based lottery.

I will give you a friendly challenge - select 4 horses - 10 points for the win, 6pts for second place, 4pts for third place, 2pts for fourth. (Or some other points system)

Louis

[Swinebag]

good points louis,

but I did make the point about comply or die in my OP.

as for the outsiders, you picked 6 in 20 years, which sort of backs my point up from a trends view.

from those

silver birch was a sneaky one as it had been injured, sold by the owner and was no longer a nicholls trained horse, but it did have serious course history (was gutted I missed that one). Red marauder is considered a freak result on the tail end of foot and mouth.

I do think the weight trend is getting weaker and looks set to be broken soon. This years national is set to be run on good ground so it could be this year, especially with, as you say a much compressed handicap.

I"ll happily have a 4 v 4. though I think we may pick some horses the same so it could be 2 v 2. Points system is fine

[Honeybadg]

Headgear - I know you wrote it - but are you saying to avoid them this year - or neutral? - I would just ignore as may be weak horses that usually get their hats put on for the race.

6 from 20 ... lots of other 16/1 shots too (which may have drifted in and out of the top 8 during betting).

Papillion was outside the top 8 on the morning of the race.

4 vs 4.

I am sure you wont be on Irish Invader! (I am!)

Looking forward to the challenge.

L

[RioRodent]

Back a brown one.

That"s all.

[APAT]

You can"t underestimate the number of legs required to carry a beast around a course as trying as Aintree.  Look for four.  Ideally one in each corner.  

[noble1]

my early picks which i have had a nibble at on betfair ....

1.Darkness
2.Cornish Sett
3.Butlers Cabin
4.Hear The Echo

I bet on a great horse yesterday! It took seven horses to beat him.

The Lone Ranger and Tonto walked into a bar and sat down to drink a beer. After a few minutes, a big tall cowboy walked in and said...

"Who owns the big white horse outside?"

The Lone Ranger stood up, hitched his gun belt, and said, "I do...Why?"

The cowboy looked at the Lone Ranger and said, "I just thought you would like to know that your horse is about dead outside!"

The Lone Ranger and Tonto rushed outside, and sure enough, Silver was ready to die from heat exhaustion. The Lone Ranger got the horse water, and soon, Silver was starting to feel a little better.

The Lone Ranger turned to Tonto and said, "Tonto, I want you to run around Silver and see if you can create enough of a breeze to make him start to feel better."

Tonto said, "Sure, Kemosabe," and took off running circles around Silver.

Not able to do anything else but wait, the Lone Ranger returned to the bar to finish his drink.

A few minutes later, another cowboy struts into the bar and asks, "Who owns that big white horse outside?"

The Lone Ranger stands again, and claims, "I do, what"s wrong with him this time?"

The cowboy looks him in the eye and says, "Nothing, but you left your Injun runnin"."

[Swinebag]

My four picks

1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster

of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.

I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons

My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.

I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!

[Honeybadg]

My four picks

1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster

of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.

I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons

My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.

I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!

Compare : "It is a myth that the National is a lottery"

I will finish preliminary trading on betfair - once they unsuspend their market - and declare my big 4.

They will defo be lead by Rambling Minster though ...

Weather forecast is for heavy rain in Liverpool on Friday night and Saturday (but not before).

What are your thougths on that? (My thoughts - CARNAGE!)

L

[Swinebag]

Rain will save the clerk watering the course. Going should still be good/ good to soft. The last soft/heavy national was in 2004. Amberleigh house fitted the trends and so did hedgehunter (who was leading but fell at the last)

There is no comparison to the statement "Its a myth that the national is a lottery".

That comment is based on trends, not certainties. Its just that this year, there doesn"t seem to be a single horse without a negative trend for this race and that is rare.

[noble1]

My four picks

1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster

of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.

I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons

My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.

I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!

Butlers Cabin surprised many people by winning the 4 mile NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in 2007 and then showed this to be no fluke by following up in the Irish National four weeks later. The Irish National is traditionally a great Aintree trial and he was a very game winner of the Irish race in 2007 so because he is french bred does not put me off.
He made a very encouraging run at Cheltenham imo where he finished just over eight lengths behind Character Building in the Kim Muir. This was a marked improvement on the rest of his recent form and he looks to be peaking at just the right time for Aintree,this with that in 08 he was going along nicely when coming to grief at Bechers second time round plus he was in poor form leading into 08 ,i think he has a far better chance this year.

[Honeybadg]

Good argument for Butler"s Cabin ... one of the few I have heard for the second favourite!

Just as I had happily ruled it out!

L

[Honeybadg]

My four picks

1. Parsons legacy
2. kilbeggan blade
3. state of play
4. rambling minster

of those the only one that I can pick with confidence is Parsons Legacy. I"m slightly worried about kilbeggan blades and state of plays stamina for this race. rambling minster ticks all the boxes but is a hold up horse and they tend to do badly in the national. If the jockey can keep him up with the pace then its got a great chance.

I cant have the favourites for a lot of reasons

My will and Butlers Cabin will be the first french breds for over 100 years to win if they do it. Black apalachi and southern vic have fallen at the big fences before so are unreliable choices.

I think this could be an outsiders year, so the "stick a pin and hope" brigade could be quids in this year!!

I am going on

1. Rambling Minster
2. Parson"s Legacy
3. L"Ami
4. Irish Invader

L

[noble1]

Good argument for Butler"s Cabin ... one of the few I have heard for the second favourite!

Just as I had happily ruled it out!

L

true true lol lol but i got 23 on betfair 12 weeks ago so i"m happy so him being favourite now is a pleasant surprise..

2009-01-04 betfair trading throughout day
23
22
23
22
21

as for value and with a good chance Darkness has my money on..ever since the 2006 Sun Alliance Chase when he finished 17lengths third to a very good horse Star De Mohaison i,ve followed his progress..there was a stamina look about him then but injury saw him mothballed for 2 and a half years but has come back this season recording a nice win at Newbury in february achieving a RPR of 156, that and Charlie Egerton has always aimed Darkness for the GN since his comeback appeals to me as this trainer went close with MELEY MOSS a few years ago so makes this irresistible for me not to back ...
his trading on betfair on that day 2009-02-28 after newbury win looked like this -
64 closing
59
54
59
54
45
47
45
41
49
54
74
69
74
79
84
89 opening

since then his price up to about week ago came into 40,s and held steady but in the last week has come in 20 points,i took 74 on him with a sneeky 25 quid on to win , i have since layed back out at 22 so its win win for me here...and if the ground is on the good side i can see his price come in a tad more to around 17 16 ish on betfair so there may still a squeak of value in him if you can get 20 22 off the highstreet bookies...

i"ll put my case for cornish sett and hear the echo later , time to walk the dogs

gla in your national picks................