Do you call?

[Honeybadg]

Here is a hand I played last year.

11 players left - 2 * $16k packages to VEGAS main event.

***** Betfair Poker Hand History for Game 341170248 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $525 Buy-in + $25 Entry Fee, Level:10 Blinds(400/800-50 ante) - Sunday, April 13, 22:09:46 GMT 2008
WSOP Vegas 2008 $32k Final#138874

Table 2 9-max (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of active players : 6
Seat 1: PooL ( 7,180 )
Seat 2: Doobs ( 33,399 )
Seat 3: BLONDE78 ( 36,983 )
Seat 4: KidYouNot ( 38,420 )
Seat 5: Honeybadg ( 18,855 )
Seat 9: tavira ( 16,753 )

Tourney Level:10 Blinds(400/800-50 ante)

I am in the Big Blind with  qc jc

** Dealing down cards **

tavira raises to [2,400]
PooL folds
Doobs calls [2,400]
BLONDE78 folds
KidYouNot folds
Honeybadg calls [1,600]

** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]

Honeybadg checks
tavira goes all-in
tavira bets [14,303]
Doobs raises to [28,606]

I have no info on Tavira.
Doobs is a very consistent winner on Betfair - liable to be aggressive late stages of tournaments.

Should I call?

What do my opponents hold?

Louis

[deanp27]

in a satellite this is a fold with all that action.

[hi_am_chris]

even when theres only two packages available? im not saying its not a fold but this isnt a satelite where you can just fold into one of the ten seats, you almost have to be playing for the win.

[deanp27]

i probably call the first shove but if player 2 is as competent as stated then what realistically do we want to see?

i get the point about not being near the bubble but this is too marginal a spot in a big satellite for my liking. I accept that if we win this the chances of us winning are pretty big though.

[AMRN]

Fold in this spot.

I don"t always fold qc jc though (just ask Ger)

[noble1]

I don"t like your call in the bb with a utg raise and [in your words] a consistent winner smooth calling........
Your oop with a easily dominated hand but as played you are hoping for a str8 or 2 pair when you call , well you have got your wish and now you have to take a deep breath and go all in...

opponent ranges -
utg - AA KK QQ JJ AQs+o AKs+o KQs KJs
mp raises to isolate - if your read is correct and they are decent i"d discount them having a set here because of his stack size if he had a set he would most likely smooth call utg hoping/want you to come along for the ride and try to KO you both and build up a monster stack...So his raise could be a very similar range to the utg AA KK AQs AKs KQs KTs+o maybe a crappy Axs flush draw if he has opened up his range and is getting aggressive...

The fact you hold QJ lessens the chance of villains holding JJ or QQ and without any soul reads/notes on villains or not being deep enough to lead and define your hand we can use this to discount as unlikely in villains ranges , it is a definite call for me here......

[Swinebag]

I"d fold pre flop, but as played, fold is probably best here given your read on doobs.

First raiser could have A x hearts or AQo,AJo. If he"s a donk he could have TT,99, 77. Cant put him on a really strong hand

doobs has possibly got, T9s, JJ, QJs and AQ hearts and possibly 88 or QQ. I dont think he would do this with AQo.

Without a read, I"d struggle to fold this....what am i hoping for by calling a raise OOP with QJ after all.

agree with chris that this not really a sat and you have to play FTW here

[UKChamp]

I call, sets are the obvious fear but are such a small part of their ranges (especially given that your QJ reduces the combinations of QQJ sets - with plyr2 the only one likely to hold a set of here) that you have plenty of value in the call. Plus if they had a set I am not sure pos one plays it that fast. The first push has a pretty wide range - hes certainly not expecting anyone to flat call with QJ preflop and so probably figures TPTK or overpair is good here, and also semi bluffs AK/AKs/ here often (with weaker players pushing with KQ/AJ). Second raise is a worry but given what we know about the first raise this could be an isolation play with TPTK or ov pair also. There isnt a lot we are behind and the upside of winning the pot and chipping up is far greater than folding your way to victory imo. The blinds are creeping up and if you fold, whilst you are not perilously short are we likely to have any better positions to take down such a comparably large pot?

[duke3016]

Fold in this spot.

I don"t always fold qc jc though (just ask Ger)

just

[Honeybadg]

I did call it with a chance to become chip leader with 10 runners left.

My thought process was Tavira"s all in represented AA, KK or AQ, all of which would delight me.

Doobs" also calling (going all in) is a nightmare really ... my thought process here was he had a Flush draw at least ... very unlikely to have JJ or QQ as argued ... 88 I would just have to suffer.

Effectively assuming a flush draw only - I am just better than 50% for a massive pot.

The danger in folding is that I end up having a race for a pot with no added value.

The plus side is that I am definately alive!

So I call.

Tavira turns over  :as: ac - beautiful
Doobs turn over :  ah th - nightmare!

I still have 38.5% chance to win against all his draws : AA has 13.2% : Doobs 48.2%

Turn is  

So I go favourite ...

River is  

Sigh.

Doobs is the new chip leader - though failed to qualify.

My main thought here is what people think about such positions - what is best to do?

ah th is a nighmare holding but even assuming this hand.

I have a 38.5% chance of 50,809 chips E(x) = 19,562
I fold I have 16,405 for sure.

Only 2 seats.

I had a similar position last night when in 12th in the Betfair $20k g"tee ... sitting in 12th (in the money) with an overpair to what looked liked an obvious flush draw.

10th-12th pays $240

1st = $6,000
2nd= $4,000
3rd= $2,380
4th = $1,600
5th = $1,300
6th = $1,000
7th = $,700
8th = $ 520
9th = $340

I have the option to make a tiny re-raise (they bet 12,600 - the pot) which will be automatically called so assuming I am correct I bet 17,500 chips to win a total pot of c48,000.

But of course I stand the chance of dying!

In both hands there is the small danger of sets being already made.

48,000 would have put me third of 12 with 3 short stacks - let"s assume they go.

Then a tough last 9 to fight through but starting 3rd - every chance to finish 3rd with some +/- distibution.

If I fold I am safe but in 10th place - with the likelihood of needing a race some time soon to progress.

I put the chips in with my  tc ts

Flop is   ::

The Villian

Flips  qd td

Pretty much as expected - so I am 53.5% to win ... 46.5% to die!

What do people think of such situations?

When you make the hero call and hold you are in epic shape.

Fold - and I will have a medium to high probability of a medium sized prize.

The more conservative players did take the smaller prizes on the final table - as is usually the case.

None of the prizes are life changing - but creates bank roll to enter other events looking for the elusive big pay day.

I look forward to your thoughts.

Louis

[UKChamp]

Typical final table hands really, I think in the circumstances as they were there are pretty good cases for doing what you did. However, with limited stack sizes im not often calling in the blinds with easily dominated connectors or connectors at all for that matter - there often is not the implied odds, if you even half hit its difficult to get away with accumulated action in front, and your playing out of position. The main point, for me at least, is its a false economy calling solely becuase of price preflop when your OOP, because it will cost you money to find out where u are in the hand.

I do however resteal with the lower suited cons in position and preflop (giving people a better price to get away and still retain some stack size).

[noble1]

you don"t say what the blinds were here or how the action went before the flop ..Did you open or call , if the latter why no 3bet?
If you are currently getting consistent at getting into these positions [deep/cash placed] then keep doing whatever you are doing as the flips will go eventually your way..

Without seeing plenty of examples of your play/strategy its hard to say if you have any obvious leak , keep reviewing your mtts in a replayer and take plenty of notes of opponents that also regularly do well at this level... The answer most of the time is volume played/variance but keep working on your thought process and reading of others all the time...
Just ask yourself if there is anything else you can add to your game that will improve your all around repertoire...


PS
i had to font this as the writing went really small   lol lol  

[Honeybadg]

you don"t say what the blinds were here or how the action went before the flop ..Did you open or call , if the latter why no 3bet?
If you are currently getting consistent at getting into these positions [deep/cash placed] then keep doing whatever you are doing as the flips will go eventually your way..

Without seeing plenty of examples of your play/strategy its hard to say if you have any obvious leak , keep reviewing your mtts in a replayer and take plenty of notes of opponents that also regularly do well at this level... The answer most of the time is volume played/variance but keep working on your thought process and reading of others all the time...
Just ask yourself if there is anything else you can add to your game that will improve your all around repertoire...


PS
i had to font this as the writing went really small   lol lol  

Thanks for this.

What replayer would you advise - do they re-run Betfair tournaments okay?

There are certainly leakages ... one is limping when I will have to play OOP ... as I did with my TT above ... though my view there was hit the Ten and get very happy ... the overpair is a pretty good result otherwise ... well I thought it was ...

I will write that hand up later ... another very interesting hand ...

I do have a decent record of getting to the money - and my anecdotal feel is that I am rather down on cards/breaks late on.

Weak hands TT, JJ - very tricky!

I think the most interesting thing in watching "winning" players in MTTs is the gear shift maybe a table or two before the bubble, that said I have seen some very interesting shortish stack play lately - people waiting and waiting due to the rest of the table being pretty loose.

Pretty endless task ... refining one"s game.

Louis

[Honeybadg]

Typical final table hands really, I think in the circumstances as they were there are pretty good cases for doing what you did. However, with limited stack sizes im not often calling in the blinds with easily dominated connectors or connectors at all for that matter - there often is not the implied odds, if you even half hit its difficult to get away with accumulated action in front, and your playing out of position. The main point, for me at least, is its a false economy calling solely becuase of price preflop when your OOP, because it will cost you money to find out where u are in the hand.

I do however resteal with the lower suited cons in position and preflop (giving people a better price to get away and still retain some stack size).

... easily dominated connectors ... good point.

In the first hand the play is delightful without Doobs having the prime Hearts ... as I will slaughter the Aces.

Thanks for the feedback.

Louis

[noble1]

i use poker tracker which is ok for betfair as for free replayers others on the forum may have suggestions...