Is it ever wrong to risk your stack with the nuts?

[AMRN]

A hand from last night"s league game got me thinking. We"re in level 1 with blinds at 10/20 and I"m in mid position holding   th td.  UTG open raises for 60, and UTG+1 calls.

Now, I considered squeezing here, but so early on in the tourney, and with so many players to act after me, I elected to just call and set-mine, and would be happy to let go if I missed.  Blinds both fold, leaving 210 in pot.

The flop came   :: tc

UTG checks.
UTG+1 bets 90 (pot now 300)
I raise to 280 (almost pot sized bet)
UTG folds
UTG+1 shoves all in. (over 2k)

So, I have the absolute nuts at this stage of the hand, but there are straight and flush draws out there.

I can put UTG+1 on overpair, underset, 2pair, TPTK, flush draw, straight draw. Assuming worst case scenario is that he has both straight and flush draws, according to PokerStove I"m around 60/40 in this spot

Option 1: Call, knowing your chips are going in ahead.
Option 2: Fold, and look for spots that aren"t quite so tight. I would have over 100xBB left.

What would you do?

[Marty719]

NEVER EVER EVER CONSIDER FOLDING THIS SPOT!!!!!!  In PLO there r occasions where folding the nuts is correct, not in Holdem!!  This is a fist-pump chips in time!!

[nosey-p]

I am surprise that you even ask the question CALL ALL DAY LONG but then again what do I know

[Jon MW]

In PLO the nuts on the flop isn"t necessarily a strong hand if you don"t improve.

Obviously that isn"t the case in HE in general and this hand in particular.

Given that his range doesn"t only include the top of his range then I"d say you "pretty much" have the odds to call.

I"m an advocate of folding Kings preflop at this stage if someone shoves ahead of you because a pair of the kings on the river isn"t necessarily that strong - but a set of tens is a hand that would be strong enough by the river to justify the risk of being outdrawn even if it wasn"t for the maths.

[LongshanksED]

Get them in everyday of the week. Idoubt the villan would shove with the flush draw at such an early stage. They probably put you on the draw themselves. Get them in good.

[deanp27]

please don"t take this the wrong way but is this a joke?

in hold"em it is never wrong, only time it may be correct is in omaha where people can be freerolling or infront of you with huge draws/wraps etc.

i guess you lost?

i mean the one worst hand he can have and you are 60% fav, factor in all the flush draws, undersets etc and it doesn"t get much better than this

[Roscopiko]

fist pump call.

he must be 5c6c or underset but wtf get them in

[Honeybadg]

A hand from last night"s league game got me thinking. We"re in level 1 with blinds at 10/20 and I"m in mid position holding   th td.  UTG open raises for 60, and UTG+1 calls.

Now, I considered squeezing here, but so early on in the tourney, and with so many players to act after me, I elected to just call and set-mine, and would be happy to let go if I missed.  Blinds both fold, leaving 210 in pot.

The flop came   :: tc

UTG checks.
UTG+1 bets 90 (pot now 300)
I raise to 280 (almost pot sized bet)
UTG folds
UTG+1 shoves all in. (over 2k)

So, I have the absolute nuts at this stage of the hand, but there are straight and flush draws out there.

I can put UTG+1 on overpair, underset, 2pair, TPTK, flush draw, straight draw. Assuming worst case scenario is that he has both straight and flush draws, according to PokerStove I"m around 60/40 in this spot

Option 1: Call, knowing your chips are going in ahead.
Option 2: Fold, and look for spots that aren"t quite so tight. I would have over 100xBB left.

What would you do?

Auto Call - he might be drawing incredibly thin.

What happened next?

L

[deanp27]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 48,510  games     0.005 secs     9,702,000  games/sec

Board: Tc
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    83.370%     83.37%    00.00%             40443            0.00   { TdTh }
Hand 1:    16.630%     16.63%    00.00%              8067            0.00   { JJ+, 44-33, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, Jc9c, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, 6c5c }

forgetting non flushing straight draws he may have - next thread fold aces preflop??

[LongshanksED]

I put thevillan on aaces kings or queens and trying to protect his hand

villan probably hits his overset or if you have some if my luck villan hits runner runner clubs for a flush with their pocket pair. (and if it was me the villan could have an underpaid thathis the flush)

[AMRN]

Ok I called (of course I called... in fact I couldn"t hit the call button fast enough).

He showed   for a 7 hi flush draw and a gut shot straight draw.   on the river gave the straight and I was crippled.

Not being results oriented, or course I dont" regret the call. However, my point is that I wasn"t all that much better than a coin flip here (against his actual cards, I was 64/36) for my whole stack. When sitting over 100xBB deep in level 1 of a tourney, is it really a necesssary risk?  (again, I"m never ever folding - just asking a theoretical question).

As for this frikking online league - last night"s exit was typical of every exit I"ve had since round 2. I think I used up my whole season"s quota of luck in round 1!!

[deanp27]

you don"t know his actual hand - use pokerstove to assess the range of probable hands he has. you will be closer to 80%

people who think they can fold situations where they are >60% favourite because they can find "better spots" overestimate how good they are imo.

[Jon MW]

...
people who think they can fold situations where they are >60% favourite because they can find "better spots" overestimate how good they are imo.

That neatly summarised the point I was going to make.

64:36 is much better than a coin flip, I probably wouldn"t risk much more than 20 bb"s on a coin flip (I"m quite risk averse) - but 100xbb"s when you"ve got nearly 2:1 seems reasonable imo (and that"s even if you know for sure what he"s got).

[jbworldwide]

I wouldn"t even need to think about it. Insta-call. End.

[pokernuts07]

Had a similar situation in Bristol on Saturday afternoon....

I had just lost 3/4 of my stack when my KK got smashed by QJ.....Q on flop (all chips went in here) Q on turn and Q on river (but that"s another story)...50p anyone?

Anyway very next hand and tilting I find QJ.  Guy to my right calls, I call on the button, blinds call and check.  Flop comes down   qs...blinds check, guy to my right raises, I shove all-in with top pair (short stacked).  Blinds fold, raiser calls with   and game over for me.  But the guy who was sat in the BB went on to say that he folded Q7 after the flop because he was worried I was on a flush draw and might hit!....