Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?

[AMRN]

I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here.  Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful

It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.

Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.

[noble1]

I don"t particularly like it, but with a guaranteed 12 outs I probably shove here.  Don"t think i lead out on the flop though but it certainly isn"t dreadful

It"s not a guaranteed 12 outs though is it. If he has a set, we have lost a couple of outs to house draws.

Best chance for us is if he holds AA/KK - makes sure all 12 outs are live.

basically what AMRN is saying we are 33.8% versus a set - not a nice situation kinboshi,the line u took and the action behind suggests strongly at least one player having a set [even more so with card removal - AKdd] and now you have pretty much zero fold equity imo and a nice 9000 ish stack behind in what looks like level 2 of the blinds?
i"ll be interested how others would proceed here.

[mal666]

We have 1 to a royal. How can we possibly fold?

[George2Loose]

Love the lead out.

Shove now

[noble1]

OK, on a similar theme - here"s a hand I managed to mangle in Luton.

Fairly early on, definitely one of the first two levels.  Got a player two to my right who is very aggressive (played in the German team), and he seems to be enjoying himself.

I"m the BB with  ad kd.  Foggy is UTG+1 and puts in a standard raise.  the German calls, and I decide to flat call as well (I usually raise here with AK, but like to vary things).

Flop is  qd jd .  That"s not an altogether bad flop for me .

I lead out for about pot (think it was a bet of 400).  Foggy raises to 1,200.  The German then re-raises to 2,800.

What do you do?

the only info i have to go by is that zeee german is aggressive and the blinds are i"m guessing 25/50 with boshi having around 9000 chips behind after leading out for 400 into a 400 pot,he sees rr to 1200 [pot 2000] and a 3bet to 2800 [pot 4800] if all stacks were of similar size pre if boshi shoves 9000 more and only gets 1 caller which will be most likely a set then he stands to gain 13800 chips which is -ev.... at best if we 4bet shove then we have to hope foggy and zeee german both have sets or a set and 2 pair for both to call for our shove to be just about break even ev wise , and all this when boshi is about 180bb"s deep!!! is there a chance we are against an over pair or two [AA,KK] maybe but with boshi holding blockers for both and a blocker for AQ and the way the action went post,does zeee german 3bet worse than 2 pair? if foggy has an over pair or TPTK then its a pretty easy fold given the action plus also how big the effective stacks are if boshi 4bet shoves.
There are very few scenarios in our favour so pretty much imo 4bet shoving is marginal at best so its not an option for me but this would give me a headache because i prefer to call [cant find a fold]but if foggy 4bets or goes all in then its a call [priced myself in by only calling,but only just against a set , hopefully but slim, maybe up against worse] even if zeee german does not continue,if foggy just calls and the turn bricks i can fold to any heavy action,if a diamond comes then i"ll bet for value,if the magical Td comes then all options are open i see more value in calling,and if foggy only calls and the turn goes tits up, we still have around 132bb"s to soldier on with.

anyone want to work out maths wise if shoving flop is +cEV?

[Marty719]

I think flatting the 2800 is appaulingly awful!!  Means we can get pushed off on the turn, or an action killer mite come down.  Def the worst decision imo!!

If the German player is creative aggro then I also believe we do have some f/e, as foggy cannot cont w/ an overpair w/ the action.  

[noble1]

i,m hoping some1 will give the maths a crack to see if shoving is +cEV even if we think zeee agg german is making a move, but how often do we think % wise to make shove profitable,,also we still have the problem of foggy and our blockers making his range the way the action has gone more in favour of 2 pair , set hands rather than over pairs and TPTK.

JUST 1 TIME i"d like to see some logic/reasoning or some maths written alongside the words SHOVE as to why it is considered the optimum move when we are so deep in chips.

sorry if i"m pushing but it is an interesting hand/situation imo.

[noble1]

sigh ok some maths  
i will count all stacks for the 3 players pre as 9000 ...

pot - 4800
i"ll give foggy a range of - AcAh, AcAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KhKs, QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, AcQc, AhQh, AsQs, QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, Td9d, AcQh, AcQs, AhQc, AhQs, AsQc, AsQh, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh

zeee germans range after seeing kinboshi pot and foggy reraise imo is more 2 pairs or sets -  QcQh, QcQs, QhQs, JcJh, JcJs, JhJs, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s,QcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJh, QcJs, QhJc, QhJs, QsJc, QsJh

as i dont know if we get 1 or 2 callers then i"ll just work out for 1 caller being the german AKdd versus potentially with a sets or 2 pair which kinboshi is 39% to win against..

pot 4800
kinboshi 8600 left
german 6200 left

using my maths i work it out as 19600 chips at risk which we stand to win 39% of the time if called,obv we lose 8600 if we dont win.
our required fold equity is thus 956/[956+4800] 16.6%

if we think the german calls 2 pair or better and this is 100% of his range then shoving is not good here.I give zeee aggressive german a strong range because he has just seen pot bet then reraise on a juicy co-ordinated flop and zeee german has 3bet quite small,after seeing pot bet then reraise i tend to favour that he would flat his drawing/1 pair hands at best.
http://dailyvariance.com/fe-calculator.php - have a play with it..

things get interesting if foggy is the caller as the fold equity for him is 6.5% and without much info to go by and giving him a broad range to reraise with and thinking he might fold over pairs etc then yes shoving is good if we were to think zeee german will fold.But all in all with boshis AKdd blockers on this texture flop,am i the only one who thinks this favours the villains ranges being strong? i must be getting nitty

can anyone put foggy or zeee german on a range because they have played them before?

[Marty719]

fwiw I dnt think either r calling with overpairs in this spot.

[noble1]

fwiw I dnt think either r calling with overpairs in this spot.

what info u basing that on marty? also thats only 6 combos which leaves 18 combos that fit the action of either player on the flop based on kinboshis lead and his blockers, i still think we get called by 2 pair or better about 85% of the time here.

[Marty719]

Well if ur Foggy how do u put ur ££ in w/ kk or aa in this spot?!

The German is slightly more likely to call off but Kinboshi"s hand looks so strong!  What do they think his 3-bet shove range is in this spot??  Surely QQ JJ 77 QJ AdKd is Kinboshis range here?

[noble1]

exactly even if the german is classed agg . after seeing a pot bet and rr post i dont think he would rr so small total air here.

[maverick1]

With no info on the player or against an erratic player with a shorter stack, small-ball FTW, especially in position. With a shove after the donk-bet, I"d give him credit for a hand. If you can put him on AXd, trips or AA, KK with a Diamond in his hand what IYO would be the best play now?

id have to agree with luckybugur here and id put him on a hand, dont forget its early stage of the tournament, the snap call pre flop, your heads up no antes to be stealing etc it just doesnt feel right, you feel you have a good read, you have plenty of outs and your getting the odds to call but your only jack high, i wouldnt be a hero here in this hand id have flat called instead of the raise and see what happened on the turn.

the jack high flush draw simply wouldnt be enough for me to call the shove, agreed if you loose the hand you still have have around 9k but it just doesnt feel right, id fold!

[kinboshi]

We have 1 to a royal. How can we possibly fold?

That was the first thing that crossed my mind!!

[mousebob]

I know I"m simple but my chips are in the middle here.
Put the decision back to them for their tournament lives.
Foggy folds trips & the german folds air!
Easy. You don"t even show your hand!
P.s Stuff the maths.