Biggish early hand at Euro's - thoughts please?

[George2Loose]

Have we shoved yet?

Dan, with your rep (ie solid) it makes this shove even easier.

I know we"re deep. I know it"s early but these APAT affairs tend to turn into shoots which is why I"ll play fairly aggro (cos everyone else has their chips locked up). It hasn"t paid off for me so far- maybe I should be more patient and embrace the shoot.

[AMRN]

one thing we know for sure - however the hand played out, the  td didn"t come on turn or river.... we would have heard it at the time!!

[WYoung83]

 This is the exact reason why i could never fold in this spot (what George2loose has said) Even though we start 200bbs deep. By about level 5 or so. If you look at the average chips, it is now around 50-60 BBs, which is no way to play creative or finness poker.
Suited connectors and set mining becomes too dangerous, because we are risking to much of our stack now to flop that hidden monster hand or monster draw.
I can tell you now that 99% of people will be putting their chips on the line later during day 1 and day 2 in much worse spots than 10 outs to the nuts with 2 cards to come, not to mention with the chance to doubble or maybe even tripple up.

"embrace the shoot" is a funny way of putting it, but it gets to nerve wrecking playing like a Harringbot in this structure and just waiting untill your "M" is 6, and then open shoving in worse spots.

I guess lately im giving away to much information on how i play, discussing hand problems like this. But i think getting chips all in for Dan right now rightly or wrongly, is how most would play it.

[George2Loose]

one thing we know for sure - however the hand played out, the  td didn"t come on turn or river.... we would have heard it at the time!!

I"m guessing Dan and foggy folded

[AMRN]

This is the exact reason why i could never fold in this spot (what George2loose has said) Even though we start 200bbs deep. By about level 5 or so. If you look at the average chips, it is now around 50-60 BBs, which is no way to play creative or finness poker.
Suited connectors and set mining becomes too dangerous, because we are risking to much of our stack now to flop that hidden monster hand or monster draw.
I can tell you now that 99% of people will be putting their chips on the line later during day 1 and day 2 in much worse spots than 10 outs to the nuts with 2 cards to come, not to mention with the chance to doubble or maybe even tripple up.

"embrace the shoot" is a funny way of putting it, but it gets to nerve wrecking playing like a Harringbot in this structure and just waiting untill your "M" is 6, and then open shoving in worse spots.

I guess lately im giving away to much information on how i play, discussing hand problems like this. But i think getting chips all in for Dan right now rightly or wrongly, is how most would play it.

so, all that said, you would have called with the J8dd in the hand in the OP?

[noble1]

fold it dan....If u call i wouldnt criticise to much if u did it...

oop with these hands deep versus good agg players in a raised pot in the early levels , i might lead out std 1/2 to 2/3 pot to try and control the pot size better , difficult to do in a 3way raised pot oop... if i found out there was some good/tricky types reraising my leads a lot then i"d rethink my whole lead out strategy and mix it up a bit.

if i had to guess what exact hand foggy had i"d plump for QQ and zeeee Fritz on 77..

if foggy is as solid as mentioned then hard to see him getting jiggy with an over pair and QQ fits board/texture and what he"d perceive dans range to be and leading with ...

[Marty719]

fold it dan....If u call i wouldnt criticise to much if u did it...

oop with these hands deep versus good agg players in a raised pot in the early levels , i might lead out std 1/2 to 2/3 pot to try and control the pot size better , difficult to do in a 3way raised pot oop... if i found out there was some good/tricky types reraising my leads a lot then i"d rethink my whole lead out strategy and mix it up a bit.

if i had to guess what exact hand foggy had i"d plump for QQ and zeeee Fritz on 77..

if foggy is as solid as mentioned then hard to see him getting jiggy with an over pair and QQ fits board/texture and what he"d perceive dans range to be and leading with ...

I 100% understand ur reasoning for folding, and do not think its too bad, but can u go over what merits you think calling has and y u think its a good option??

[AMRN]

I 100% understand ur reasoning for folding, and do not think its too bad, but can u go over what merits you think calling has and y u think its a good option??

FFS not again!!  I just wanna know what happened now.

[Marty719]

 :"(  Just trying to get the academy section gng rather than just a good story  Point taken tho Steve - Noble is more than welcome to PM me nething else if he fancies it  Just trying to get a better feel of flatting this spot and c"ing if it is actually a better option than I think it is.

Wud b gd to get Foggys thots on the hand as well

[bigredders]

this is the longest slowroll.....EVER!

[JamieCarra]

Ok, last night I did a little bit of work trying to work out the maths behind shoving.  I've attached the ranges I assigned to each villain, while many of you won't agree with the calling range of the German I think it should be fairly accurate assuming that he is rational.





Have also attached the EV calc showing our equity against the various ranges depending on how the hand plays out and it came up a +EV of approx t2800.




Didn't get a chance to look at the EV of calling last night but might try to at some stage later in the week if I get time.

[kinboshi]

this is the longest slowroll.....EVER!

Good innit?

[cincicrappykid]

u need to get out more  

[kinboshi]

[MintTrav]

u need to get out more  

Would be even funnier if I told everyone I didn"t actually have this hand and I"ve made it all up...

At this stage, not only had it better be true, but to repay the amount of input you"ve had, you"d better have flatcalled on the Flop, plus another 5k on the Turn, before folding on the River.