Was this straight forward?

[Mikeyboy9361]

Playing the $6000 gteed $5 buy in on BSQ last night. A mere 1665 runners. Okay 4 hours in, well in the money (lol). I was 20th out of 40 left with 45K, Chip Leader had 200K average was about 40K. Blinds just gone up to 2500/5000 plus 500 ante. Real money is paid to the top 5.
I had played a really conservative game all night, trying to avoid needless races, folding small pairs pre oop, and had only hit a river once ( I did have 12 outs).
I am in the BB with 96 spades, folded round to the cut off who is the CL ( recently lost a 100k pot) he min raises to 10k. Button and SB fold, there is 5k in antes 10k from the CL and 2500 from the SB plus my 5k BB.
What"s my move?

[AMRN]

Tougher spot than it looks at first - if you shove, the CL should be calling as he is priced in...... and even though his range is miles wide, it is going to be better than 9 hi a lot of the time.

fold.

[LongshanksED]

Unfortunely I"m a real odds fiend and find my self wanting to call this - if we were deepstacked!

But looking at the chips you only have 8-9 BB, out of position and even though the CO could be just trying to steal blinds and antes I"m sure there is there is other spots you can pick to shove and Hoover up the blinds yourself.

[JamieCarra]

Fold - against a similar sized stack you could shove but CL should be calling everyday of the week.  Just shove next hand instead.

[Roscopiko]

unless u have seen him raise fold like 100 times before in this situation it has to be a fold

[noble1]

if we assume that when u shove that he calls 100% and put him on a range of 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo  [he is getting 1.92 to 1 to call so without info 100% call]

just work out if its cEV+ mikey , 96s versus this range is 37%

he calls u win 67500   .37*67500= 24975
he call u lose 45000   .63*-45000= -28350

24975 + -28350 = -3365

so cEV its a fold , it all depends mikey on how wide of a range u want to put villain on and how much of that range u think he will call with, if u think he folds say 20% then it is +cEV   [.20*22500= 4500] + the above is +1125 , not a huge edge but anymore FE than 20% then its a obv push...

[Eck]

unless u have seen him raise fold like 100 times before in this situation it has to be a fold

Nearly made it in before Noble got his calculator out there. As Rosco said for me unless we have seen him raise fold a lot I am def passing this. Think the more obvious point is your comment about playing a conservative game, think you need to be more aggressive/adventorous. I have been on your table a couple of times and was going to mention it before I think but i found it quite easy to see when you weren"t keen on your hand and was able to raise/jam a couple of times to win the pot. can"t remember specifics but you were likely min raising small pairs and 3 or 4xing big hands.

Just a thought and only from a small observation....but anyway back to the maths...

[Marty719]

Fold seems pretty good here.  Jam next hand.

What do ppl think of flatting, and then open-shoving evry flop?

[cincicrappykid]

do u feel lucky ? may be an option thats what amrn does  

[noble1]

interesting how Eck picked up on your bet sizing Mikey , so either make every raise the same std amount or if playing Eck
throw a few curve balls in and min raise big pairs [mix ure range up] etc or if he is betting u off your hand post-flop then depending on position throw in some check raises on the flop or turn etc etc [sorry Eck   lol i wana see mikey take advantage of his image with u lol

back to the maths - if we were to put villain on this range 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo but that if u jam and he folds just A6s A7s A8s A2o-A6o JTo QTo KTo  just 11 hands , then that would give 33% fold equity so a deffo MTFBWY shove.. obv it would be better here if u had a feel for villains range and his tendencies, for me if villain has been raising a lot is irrelevant , it is how often do we think he folds if we jam.. Even if villains raise range is 50% then mikey if called 100% of the time is 38% to win..

[Eck]

interesting how Eck picked up on your bet sizing Mikey , so either make every raise the same std amount or if playing Eck
throw a few curve balls in and min raise big pairs [mix ure range up] etc or if he is betting u off your hand post-flop then depending on position throw in some check raises on the flop or turn etc etc [sorry Eck   lol i wana see mikey take advantage of his image with u lol

lol this was ipoker like there was any room for post flop play....

[Mikeyboy9361]

Thanks for the feedback guys, been launching a Google ad words campaign all morning for Dimplex heaters, if you hadn"t noticed its cold outside!!
I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions!  
Any way my thought process was - Min raise from the CL was weird, he had not done that before, either he had a monster or he wanted to see a flop cheaply without limping, he had just taken a big beat. So surely I am priced in to call? I have 5k in already and it is only 5k more into 22.5k, more than 4:1 on my money. With the blinds so high I decided to call, and see what hit.
Flop 9 2 5 rainbow, no spades!
What now?

[AMRN]

firstly, you shouldn"t consider that you had 5k in already - money already in the pot is no longer yours.

You are correct that you are getting the right odds to call, but it"s such a large percentage of your stack, and you will check/fold so many missed flops, that calling here is -EV.  

As played, now that you"ve caught top pair you cannot possibly get away from the hand. Open shove to protect what you"ve hit.

[JamieCarra]

Thanks for the feedback guys, been launching a Google ad words campaign all morning for Dimplex heaters, if you hadn"t noticed its cold outside!!
I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions!  
Any way my thought process was - Min raise from the CL was weird, he had not done that before, either he had a monster or he wanted to see a flop cheaply without limping, he had just taken a big beat. So surely I am priced in to call? I have 5k in already and it is only 5k more into 22.5k, more than 4:1 on my money. With the blinds so high I decided to call, and see what hit.
Flop 9 2 5 rainbow, no spades!
What now?

Calling pre is terrible, I"d be tempted to check raise now

[Eck]

I hope I am a little less predictable these days Eck ( its been a while since I was on your table) and I try and be a bit more creative on occasions!  

Think it was 2 or 3 weeks ago mate, wasn"t an APAT game would have been one of the rebuys on ipoker but may have been another mikeyboy for all i know.

Anyway fold pre now i dont mind tbh u have hit top pair if he was strong he will likely call a jam anyway so why not let him bet and have a gamble at the full double up.