Can I fold?

[pokerpops]

5 left of 31 in a £10 FO, 3 paid - it"s a crapshoot with 108,000 chips in play and blinds at 2,000/4,000

I"m BB with 10,500

UTG has just lost all but 2,000 of his stack in an AK v AQ and shoves his last 2,000 in - folded to SB (CL with c 35,000) who shoves and obviously covers me. SB is very aware of what he"s doing and effectively getting a freeroll on his call. He can be doing this with a wide range - I"d say any pair and any two broadway cards

Does it matter what cards I have? If so, what do i need to be calling?

edit - I have 6,500 left if I fold

[shozboy1]

do you have 10k left after posting your BB? If so I may fold. Also, what size stacks do others have? If they"re stacks are similar to yours, then again, a fold may be sensible.

[LongshanksED]

Crapshoot yes!

Do you have 10k after you"ve posted the blinds (effectively you started the hand with 14.5k) or you now have 6.5k after posting

of you have 6.5k after posting then you"ve gotta call with virtually any 2 suited or unsuited connecters  or pair IMO and pray you get lucky as you"ll effectivelly be all in next hand

if you have 10.5k after posting you could let this one go unless you use the gap concept which IMO would be ak/aq/ or 1010+ and then force the pressure in the next hand

[pokerpops]

edited - I had 6,500 behind

[Mikeyboy9361]

I would CLs range is even wider than that, so you are pushing with any 2.

[LongshanksED]

any 2 then with your stack

against the other 2 players random+ holdings then youd be no worse than 25-30% to win - and to win 1st players 2k + sb"s blinds of 4k + your 4k blind + sb"s 6.5k to cover your stack = 23k

6k to win 24k is about the right price


it would be a painful crying call though knowing i have to get lucky

[pokerpops]

any 2 then with your stack

against the other 2 players random+ holdings then youd be no worse than 25-30% to win - and to win 1st players 2k + sb"s blinds of 4k + your 4k blind + sb"s 6.5k to cover your stack = 23k

6k to win 24k is about the right price


it would be a painful crying call though knowing i have to get lucky

I"m not sure about the maths there... I"m putting 6.5k in to win 16.5k surely?

But in any event, if I fold I have only 1.5 BBs left and I"m shoving one of the next 4 hands regardless and inevitably winning less (assuming  I get lucky!)

[noble1]

6000 in blinds + 2000 from guy who just lost AK V AQ + a double up from CL , so u shove 10500 to double up off the CL and win the blinds and shorties 2000 = 18500 chips to be won.. Taking the dogs for a walk but looking at it quick i"d say it is closer than calling ATC because if CL wins obv only 4 left with 3 getting paid so it would be handy to know the stacks of the other villains , as u say the CL only has 35000 so this is close imho [maybe not quite ATC ]

what do others think???

[LongshanksED]

23k

you have 10.5k total (after posting blind)
sb has you covered so if you win (he"s already all in) you take 10.5k of him
1st player 2k total

10.5 you
10.5 sb
2     1st player

=23k

[noble1]

longshank u are making a common mistake here in counting your own stack , u only win the blinds[and antes if any] , the 2000 and 10500 chips off the CL ..  so u are risking 10500 to win 18500..

[noble1]

seen the edit 6500 left  --- come on guys get the stacks right in orignal post please [my dogs are getting cross,its walkie time]

6000 in blinds
2000 all in
6500 shove to win 6500 off CL

u risk 6500 to win 14500 more than 2to1 so ATC

[pokerpops]

seen the edit 6500 left  --- come on guys get the stacks right in orignal post please [my dogs are getting cross,its walkie time]

6000 in blinds
2000 all in
6500 shove to win 6500 off CL

u risk 6500 to win 14500 more than 2to1 so ATC

The stacks were right in the original post - I edited to clarify where mine was (4,000 in the pot and 6,500 in front of me)

So ATC and cross fingers?

[MintTrav]

Come on guys, this should be a discussion on the merits of calling. Doesn"t reflect well on the forum that there is a debate about how many chips we need to put in & how many we will win, which should be second nature (and coming up with so many different answers). If we can"t work that out then how can we make good decisions?

(btw David is correct - 6.5k to win 16.5k)

[kinboshi]

Yep, ATC for me here - and I wouldn"t look before shoving my chips in.

Obviously it"s a crapshooty structure (crapshooty is a real word BTW), but ideally you wouldn"t let yourself get down to such a small stack compared to the blinds.  You really want to be shoving it in with a stack of 10xBB or thereabouts when you can still damage others" stacks and when a double up actually gets you a bit of breathing space.  Of course, you have a decent stack and lose a race you can be placed in the position you"re in.  But you don"t want to be blinded down to that stack.

[noble1]

Come on guys, this should be a discussion on the merits of calling. Doesn"t reflect well on the forum that there is a debate about how many chips we need to put in & how many we will win, which should be second nature (and coming up with so many different answers). If we can"t work that out then how can we make good decisions?

(btw David is correct - 6.5k to win 16.5k)

i"m confused   where do u get the extra 2000 chips? oh my me bad [bad doggies lol] yes its 16.5k , 6500 effective shove
= 8.5k off CL + 6000 in blinds + 2000 off shortie...