Hand 111 from 'winning poker tourneys one hand at a time'

[shozboy1]

The flop decision:
Flop is . Pot is 375.
"This is a great flop for my hand since I am basically racing against his calling range. Even against a tight range of 88+ AKc AQc I have 48.5% equity. Throw in single club AK and AQ combinations and my equity increases to just over 49%. He"ll also fold a large % of the time I raise. Its clear I"m going nowhere in this hand. I raise his cbet to 800 and he insta shoves. I call.

So my own thoughts are he"s turned this into a pure maths decision. He"s assigned the tight player a range, and decided against his entire range he"s basically flipping after the flop is dealt. To me the players insta 4bet shove on the flop indicates massive strength, but clearly Apestyles has already decided he"s flipping with the RANGE of the villain, so calls, and decides he would call before the villain ever 4bet shoved - based on the maths. Is my interpretation correct?

[TheSnapper]

Every decision in poker, ultimately, is maths. The big part is assigning accurate ranges, that"s what the top players do consistently well. They feed their intuitive feel for this away from the table by running spots through pokerstove and confirming or disproving their in play decisions were + EV.

[Marty719]

I can"t help feeling he ran into the bottom of villains range.

[deanp27]

I can"t help feeling he ran into the bottom of villains range.

well he did. That"s for sure

but there are still plenty of other hands out there that we are flipping with AcKx etc that he aint gonna fold that would make raise/folding this flop a mistake imo.

As an aside i played an almost exact hand in the DTD Monte Carlo event where i had Jacks on a 8 high monotone board vs a tight EP raiser ( i had the J hi flush draw) the flop went check/check and i then got two streets of decent value when the board ran out all low and no 4 flush (had TT with flush draw lol). Cos we were deep i think raising at any point would overrep the strength of my hand and would probably not be optimal.

[shozboy1]

But Marty, isn"t it irrelevant that he ran into the bottom of the range this time? Against the whole range he was flipping so called (I havent done the pot odd calc but assume the odds were there to make the flop all in call). Next time he may make the same "correct" decision but run into AcAd

[Marty719]

I still dnt think raise/stacking off is the right move on this flop.  Given his tight image I think the guys range is literally 1010+, AcKx.  I also don"t think the villain stacks off 2/ red 10"s. 

We r prob getting the right price against his range, but I just cnt help feel its a pretty ridiculous spot to put urself in w/ 85x at the opening stages.  I think he may have taken the worst line available and just happened to be up against the one hand in the range he has dominated.

[deanp27]

i don"t think anyone has disagreed with you Marty, but if you do decide to raise the flop i think folding is wrong. I would have flatted the flop

[Marty719]

i don"t think anyone has disagreed with you Marty, but if you do decide to raise the flop i think folding is wrong. I would have flatted the flop

Yea, agreed.  Wish he went into more details about y he thinks raise>fold.  Its a weird line against given reads.

[shozboy1]

problem if you flat the flop is that there"s not many cards other than a jack we can be happy seeing if he fires again? Any ace/king/queen are scary cards, and definitely becomes difficult to continue. Also any club means just got there.

However, like Marty you said about the monte carlo hand, flatting would be better if the villain was deeper stacked no?

[shozboy1]

Sorry, just to mention one further thing, for me the key learning point was to flat call the raise pfr. Raising to find out where we are would get him to shove some of his range - making us fold JJ, and the rest of the time he folds the part of his range we beat. Earlier in the book there"s alot of support for repopping of pfr raisers with easily muckable but potentially home run hands like suited 1 and 2 gappers. As apestyles mentions, repopping here turns our jj into any 2 random cards when he comes over the top of us

[WYoung83]

Just do what Ivey would do, it will always be the best decision possible, and if we get busted out then move on to another tourny.

[TheSnapper]

i don"t think anyone has disagreed with you Marty, but if you do decide to raise the flop i think folding is wrong. I would have flatted the flop

Yea, agreed.  Wish he went into more details about y he thinks raise>fold.  Its a weird line against given reads.

Its one of those spots were lots of your equity is derived from the redraw potential and this is seriously diminished if we miss on the turn.

[WYoung83]

 But what do we need to hit on the turn? obviously a set would be nice,  but we may already be behind to AQ clubs for example, and we cant be too happy hitting a flush either because we could also be behind to A high flush. Trouble with this problem is that its early on and people are scared of going busto during the first few levels imo. The decision what this guy takes on the flop to repop and jam it all is defently the best. If we get knocked out so be it. I once saw Phil ivey get his money in behind and he simply asked the table when the next EPT was.......thats the attutide that makes him great, if he makes mistakes he gets on with it.