Saturday Donkey

[Chipaccrual]

The race didn"t make me go WOW

Pretty disappointing, have been much better performances earlier in the week.

In my very unknowledgeable opinion

[nosey-p]

3 days of profit followed by 1 small loss, very happy with the 4 days    

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +243.21 points

fri -17points
thu +37
wed -8
tue +5

a +17point profit over the 4 days with the usual lucky and hard luck stories :"(

Aintree next and the Lincoln meeting to begin a profitable flat season i hope...

The race didn"t make me go WOW

Pretty disappointing, have been much better performances earlier in the week.

In my very unknowledgeable opinion

i"m guessing u wasn"t on the winner Leigh  

its a shame the ground got a soaking over night, but heyho next year will Mullins/Walsh win every non handicap race?

[noble1]

3 days of profit followed by 1 small loss, very happy with the 4 days    

invest wisely

[noble1]

The race didn"t make me go WOW

Pretty disappointing, have been much better performances earlier in the week.

In my very unknowledgeable opinion

depends how u look at it Leigh, the Foxhunter Chase ran the same course/distance right after and On The Fringe recorded a time 17.3 seconds slower than Coneygree.

say we allow 4 lengths per second on going Soft, Good to Soft in Places, Soft or slower. That means Coneygree would of beaten On The Fringe by 69.2 lengths.
Silviniaco Conti would of finished 42 lengths in front of On The Fringe.

SC + CoG carried 4lbs less for 26.5 furlongs than OTF. [how much difference did it make? a good puzzle to ponder Leigh]

a furlong is 201.168 metres times 26.5 = 5330.952 metres    1 length is 2.45 metres

in terms of mph Coneygree ran his race at a avg of 29.6273mph , On The Fringe ran a avg of 28.4064mph

Coneygree would of finished 169.54 metres in front of On The Fringe

http://www.britishhorseracing.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Guide-to-Handicapping.pdf

[Chipaccrual]

Good info.

Definitely wasn"t on the Coneygree, but had a fun and slightly profitable week, which was good.

Just didn"t feel like a memorable race to live up to the usual hype (perhaps overhype) and billing.

I suppose the same can be said of a lot of sporting events.  The media tries to whirl everyone up into a frenzy of anticipation and energy, commentates on it as if you are watching a once in a lifetime experience, then afterwards analyses how lucky you are to have witnessed said event.

Maybe I"m getting cynical in my old age

Great tips and analysis as always noble1.  Would love to know how your week compares to say someone like The Betting Emporium, who will have charged for their information for the week.

The value is definitely on this thread me thinks

[nosey-p]

I echo that Leigh, I always check on here first before I place a bet, I don"t always take his advice   but take on board the comments he makes. 

The flat season is around the corner BRING IT ON

Thanks for Call The Cops  

[noble1]

i"ll reply to the above when i get chance.

Lingfield 14th March
3.05 - coral.co.uk Winter Derby
Grendisar @6/1  1point win
Grandeur @6/1  1point win

3.40 - Hever Sprint Stakes
Green Door @12/1  1point win

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +240.21 points

Newbury 21st March
2.00 - Ultima Handicap Chase
Pepite Rose @4/1  3point win
Persian Snow @8/1  3point win

Both on good marks, one has a good track record, the trainer of the other was in cracking form here yesterday. Group bet them together for some value

3.10 - 3m2f110y Handicap Chase
No Duffer @5/1  2point win
Drumshambo @12/1  1point win

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +231.21 points


hooray the flat season is here at last, i"m not going bezerk and i"ll concentrate on the possible disguised sorts in the spring mile and Haggas and Fahey in the Lincoln.

Doncaster 3.10 - Spring Mile
Indy @14/1  1point win
General Brook @60+ ok on the exchanges, i"ve nibbled away at 65 and 70"s on bf.  1point win

3.45 - Lincoln Handicap
Gabrial @12/1  2point win
Gabrial"s Kaka @10/1  1point
Mange All @13/2  1point win

[nosey-p]

the fred total overall currently stands at +231.21 points


hooray the flat season is here at last, i"m not going bezerk and i"ll concentrate on the possible disguised sorts in the spring mile and Haggas and Fahey in the Lincoln.

Doncaster 3.10 - Spring Mile
Indy @14/1  1point win
General Brook @60+ ok on the exchanges, i"ve nibbled away at 65 and 70"s on bf.  1point win

3.45 - Lincoln Handicap
Gabrial @12/1  2point win
Gabrial"s Kaka @10/1  1point
Mange All @13/2  1point win

[nosey-p]

A bit late but had Naadirr at 11/2 in the 2.35 and Halation at 12/1 EW in the 3.10. Went for Zarwaan in Lincoln (first 5 EW) finished 6th

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +251.21 points

What are the betting angles today at Lingfield in the All Weather Championship Finals Day, take note of the official ratings because its at level weights but pay a bit attention particularly for lightly raced contenders saved up from their qualifiers? Perhaps the angle might be winners at two or three years old coming to this as three and four year olds who now may/should show improvement, some maybe markedly? Go with course form? Ignore wide drawn horses? Stick with exposed horses at the end of their autumn/winter AW season?
The layers mainly have most angles covered perhaps a little to much atm, so no big punts today is the way to go. Whatever happened to the art of aggressive laying? Give the skilled odds compilers some more autonomy, put up the red flags and accommodate the shrewdies bets. The focus from some bookmakers to hone in on easy revenue streams such as fixed odds betting terminals and online gaming is a joke, UK high street bookies, you are a bookmaker in name only. NUFF said, RANT over


1.40 - Fillies and Mares
This was a class4 race posing as a class2 last year, the std is a bit better this year with 5 class2 winners - Queen Aggie, Khatiba, Lamar, Don"t Be and Maiden Approach. Fresles is the only class1 winner in the line up.
Lamar is out, to wide of a draw and behind Fresles over in France when finding trouble, RM booked hence the price.
Queen Aggie is out, cls2 win over 6f out of class depth today.
Khatiba with no prep, 126 day lay off, never raced around Lingfield - out
Maiden Approach a sudden drop in trip needs to bring about a lot improvement - out
others to note - History Book - out on price

that leaves -
Fresles @4/1  1.5point win
Don"t Be @9/2  1.5point win

2.10 - Sprint Championship
Chookie Royale @11/2  1point win
Intransigent @16/1  1point win


2.40 - 3yo Mile
Lexington Times @9/4  1point win

3.15 - Mile Championships
Tenor @16/1  1point win
Mindurownbusiness @11/2  2point win

4.45 Marathon
Anglophile @3/1  2point win
Hidden Gold @9/4  2point win

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +245.71 points

Haydock
3.45 - Handicap Chase
Silvergrove @14/1  1point win
Hollow Blue Sky @20/1  1point win

[noble1]

the fred total overall currently stands at +264.71 points

Hollow Blue Sky got backed down to as low as 17/2 with some firms throughout the morning, got the value early though.

The Irish National Monday is the next fred target race