SWISS SPIRIT looks to be the bet of the day, I"m with you with CAUCUS. ARCHBISHOP in the 3.05, not too sure about the 355 days layoff. GOLDEN TOWN in the 4.20. And MAJESTIC MOON in the last
yep Swiss Spirit is well drawn for his hold up style, i"m just taking the view that the low draws will go to fast and i hope that Tickled Pink will be able to set better fractions from her high draw unimpeded as per Sandown and Newmarket earlier in the season when she made all.
I"ve been having a bit of fun trying to produce par (or optimum) finishing speeds for various tracks to establish whether a horse was finishing fast or slow, and using this to estimate how much faster they could have run, had they run optimally.
Allowing for lost ground when hampered is the tricky part to assess
as at the moment i try to allow for bigger impacts at faster speeds to how i rate the horses..
Using this approach i got the Nunthorpe down to 6 possibles and Swiss Spirit was in there
but William Buick"s timing skills put me off now [especially after Glorious Goodwood] its ironic that his best race on SS happened when he got badly hampered at Haydock which caused him to ride the horse a little less vigorous in the early stages.
Meh a fun race to analyse, whoever wins it should be bloody good fun watching them charge towards the finishing line Wayne, have a good day fella..
