Running Good
I play about 16 MTTS in a month (500 + runners) I cash about 4 times of them and run deep twice (out of the 4) and FT once (out of the 4) and for every 4 times I FT I will be in the top 3 once. So on that basis I run good once every four month or every 64 games, is that good or bad? On those stats if I was to play 16 MTTS a day I will run good every 4 days. You see players on TV who always seem to be running deep in tournaments but how many tournaments have they entered? For me "running good" is in the short term or another word for "got lucky more than once in a week"
Wayne imo the strike rate in donkaments depends on buy in, number of runners and that little bit of luck in whichever seat u are assigned.. Hitting the top3 spot percentage wise in say 800+ fields is at most over a decent sample no more than 3% imho. To see how often/tough mtts can be then just look at OPR and check out moorman, Deeb or Bax etc who have consistently won there fair share over the years. ITM finishes range from only in the 15 to 17% area, the top3 % is only in the 2% ballpark [all dependent on buy in and field size]... Interesting stuff variance in mtts, but to win or finish top3 if say players are ITM any higher than 18%+ over a decent sample then they are probably playing a little to tight.. My thoughts on the luck element in a donkament is that if u are constantly/near enough getting your chips in ahead then u are wayyyy to tight, in order to finish in the elusive top3 spot u need to have a wee bit of sub-optimal play in your armoury.. [just not to much
] i can think of a few hands when i have won or finished deep in big field mtts where going with my reads/stack size and whatever stage/level i"ve been at that i ended up getting in a spot totally dominated pre or post and binking a 3outer etc
.. BUT if that wasn"t within me to put my chips/stack at risk in certain situations then i"m pretty sure i"d never of gone deep or won etc..
nice blog post to read btw sir...
I was doing my usual lurking across the forums and i came across this -
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=54944.0it reminded me of the time i wrote about deciding if the villain was betting for value or bluffing on the river when hero is oop on tricky textures [when hero has a strong"ish but not nutted hand]
i put here in the donkey thread but the mods re-titled and moved it, the responses disappointed me as i thought it was worth a wee bit of discussion
.. in the above thread depending on what level of thought the players are at, even if u thought at say ""what hand/s is villain putting me on"" ... villains bet sizing etc plus heroes reads then if say hero thought about initially is villain bluffing or betting for value then considered villains bluff range, the board texture and his reads/thoughts throughout as the hand played out then i found it intriguing that no mentioned that villain used his 4x hand as a blocker, especially so since when hero led into 5 players that villain using his blocker would of helped him pinpoint heroes possible hand [then add in the board texture etc] it just shows imo at how whatever level u think at then it can be crucial to not just instantly think about the villains range but judge what level they are on thought wise and what they perceive heroes range as... hard for me to put in writing, but i hope u get the jist of what i"m saying regarding thought level etc...
On to the racing and good luck with your picks Tje, i spent a few hours going through the card at Donny and its a no bet but watch day for me..
Sorry for last Saturday as i had a punt on Bauer, i should of done my usual 2 or 3 picks and put it up, especially so after English Summer got pulled out.. Meh but i was busy etc so apologies to anyone who met back some of the donks i put up.. A friend of mine who has a couple of horses with Cumani had told me about Bauer and that on a recent visit how well the horse looked and that the tendon injury which had held him back since well u have to go back to his 2nd in the melbourne cup was finally sorted... Big big price on the day and virtually over looked by the punters, no doubt he will be going into quarantine soon and heading out to Australia once again, keep a eye out on the prices as he may well go one better...
[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYLTzXFVcb0[/youtube]
my short list for todays tv races, i could not pin point anything at a price i was happy with so sods law they"ll most likely all romp home
DONCASTER 1:25 -
Royal Blush
Amis Reunis
Poetic Dancer -
2nd 13/2DONCASTER 1:55 -
Alanza -
1st 11/4Chachamaidee [the top 2 are priced up about right imo] -
3rd 5/2Dever Dream [finished behind Chachamaidee at Goodwood, todays ground and galloping track maybe enough to reverse placings] -
2nd 13/2DONCASTER 2:25 -
Factory Time -
2nd 33/1Betty Fontaine
West Leake Diman
plus add the obvious - Bogart [but not worth it at the price he is]
all picks but Bogart are rather big prices, tough race to sort out and nothing leaps out as being in the same league as last years winner Wootton Bassett, slim hopes for a big price shocker
DONCASTER 3:00 -
Meeznah -
1st 5/2Goldplated [interesting]
Sense Of Purpose
good luck all, lets hope our donks sprout wings today....
