Author Topic: Saturday Donkey  (Read 607373 times)

0 Members and 41 Guests are viewing this topic.

CincinnatiKid

  • Regional Captain
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1108
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #585 on: May 20, 2012, 17:27:19 PM »
Follow my Poker Twitter @CINK1D
Follow my Horseracing Twitter @AG_CGN
Ex Team Lucky Squad
Captain Ex-Regional Team Europe
Member Ex-Regional Team East of England
Member Ex-Luton Poker Club

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #586 on: May 20, 2012, 18:19:37 PM »

Big disappointment, California Memory unplaced, missed totally the power of his final speed this time. Maybe I"d better heard to commentary. Said that CM dislike this race course.


soft ground Achim was his undoing, the course is fair tbh it suits front runners and hold up types as per Chinchon who luckily for him had the inside draws set up a nice pace for him to pick them off in the home stretch.. most of the others wider didn"t act on the ground... Chinchon did well tbh as the inside draws have a good advantage there when its soft because its such a short run [200m] to the 1st turn, he still had a fair bit to make up in the home straight, the front runner runner set a fair pace...

http://www.turfclub.com.sg/Racing/Pages/ViewRaceResult/1633/10
they have the replay in divX... plus some downloads on t-chart to see aeiral views etc using the trakus stuff which should be used here in europe imho  :) plus u can mess about and look at sectionals if want ;)

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20120520&no=s0205&lang=eng
another replay if u haven"t seen it Achim...

nosey-p

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3240
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #587 on: May 25, 2012, 06:41:14 AM »
3.45 Goodwood
No. 3 Michelangelo

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #588 on: May 25, 2012, 15:30:10 PM »

3.45 Goodwood
No. 3 Michelangelo


good luck wayne, i"m taking a chance with Expense Claim, he ran the London Gold Cup in a near group2 pace, Balding could of gone the logical route and aimed EC at the King George V handicap, but he"s diverted him for a crack at the Cocked Hat? Balding doesn"t often over estimate a horses ability so at 2/1+ its worth a punt....

it will be interesting to see if Gosden has another Masked Marvel on his hands...

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #589 on: May 25, 2012, 15:58:24 PM »
Fortune nearly nicked that with a superb ride, Michelangelo met well be a proper group1 horse, he did well to make up 5or6 lengths to win narrowly, that hint of being able to quicken giving Expense Claim that much rope who i think is a good group2,3 sort of std makes Michelangelo look rather good [plus he"ll be better over flatter and more experience]

a interesting Gosden hotpot [again :)]

nosey-p

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3240
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #590 on: May 25, 2012, 16:37:49 PM »

Fortune nearly nicked that with a superb ride, Michelangelo met well be a proper group1 horse, he did well to make up 5or6 lengths to win narrowly, that hint of being able to quicken giving Expense Claim that much rope who i think is a good group2,3 sort of std makes Michelangelo look rather good [plus he"ll be better over flatter and more experience]

a interesting Gosden hotpot [again :)]


Was not impressed with the start but the final 2f was impressive, got 6/4 this morning   ;)

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #591 on: May 26, 2012, 03:02:44 AM »
some picks for the TV racing today :)


HAYDOCK
2:00 -
Last Shadow @7/2+

2:30 -
Frog Hollow @6/1+
Archbishop @9/2+

3:00 -
Sole Power @7/2+

GOODWOOD
2:45 -
Fiorente @6/4+

3:20 -
Romeo Montague @8/1+

YORK
3:10 -
Mystery Star @25/1+
Barbican @9/2+

3:45 -
Bathwick Bear @33/1+
Fratellino @20/1+

CURRAGH
3:15 -
Parish Hall @7/2+
Power @4/1+


nosey-p

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3240
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #592 on: May 26, 2012, 08:47:25 AM »
Allot of racing today

The good thing of the day is Hill Street in the 8.10 Lingfield but you won"t get a good price

Castleford looks good against Wakefield (Rugby League)  

nosey-p

  • Staker Licensed Player
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3240
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #593 on: May 26, 2012, 09:51:47 AM »
Had 3 bets today

3.00 Haydock
Bated Breath 4/1

5.15 Haydock
Afaal 3/1

Double
2.35 York
Saamidd 10/11
+
8.10 Lingfield
Hill Street 4/5

CincinnatiKid

  • Regional Captain
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1108
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #594 on: May 26, 2012, 17:19:25 PM »
German 2000 Guineas, May 28th. Red Duke and Caspar Netscher want to challenge german horses.
Very competitive and interesting race.
Follow my Poker Twitter @CINK1D
Follow my Horseracing Twitter @AG_CGN
Ex Team Lucky Squad
Captain Ex-Regional Team Europe
Member Ex-Regional Team East of England
Member Ex-Luton Poker Club

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #595 on: May 27, 2012, 23:46:30 PM »

German 2000 Guineas, May 28th. Red Duke and Caspar Netscher want to challenge german horses.
Very competitive and interesting race.


i"d favour Caspar Netscher just, but anything less than 4/1 i"ll swerve betting, looks as if Tai Chi has a chance though Achim, his mixture High Chaparral and Big Shuffle, quote me if i"m wrong Achim [its late :)] but Precious Boy was out of Big Shuffle, his speed should be in Tai Chi"s genetics but why drop him in distance after a good run in the Criterium de saint-cloud?  now 1st time out as 3year old, its a odd route to take plus he"ll be running on quicker ground for the 1st time... meh :) if he drifts on betfair across here, i"ll back 7/1+ and i"ll probably lay for now [but for not to much :)]
if Amarillo has trained on then he"s in the mix, hard to know what to make of that lto run beating a decent filly [Survey] at Dusseldorf on soft ground but his run behind Amaron last year on good met bode well... Red Duke should improve for the better ground, so thats another fly in the ointment :)
hmmmm i think i be happy playing the layer on this one Achim :)

CincinnatiKid

  • Regional Captain
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1108
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #596 on: May 28, 2012, 10:33:58 AM »
@noble Thanks for analysis.;)

IMO we"ll see one of the most thrilling German 2000 Guineas over the past years.

I"m totally sure that one of the german horses will win it. It"s not patriotism why I think so. Can"t believe that the performance of both british horses are good enough this time to to take it down.

Tai Chi was an excellent 2y and the aim was to prepare him for the french and maybe german derby. Now they scratched him and drop him in distance, which will give him a top chance, if he is at 100%. Trainer is a great guy, whole family are horsemen, had a lot of fun with him but sadly he"s seriously ill ( lung cancer) and wish with all of my heart that Tai Chi will win it. Fingers cross for you Werner!

Amarillo and Energizer are two top horses and imo both are in the finish. One dark horse I have pick up, it"s Pastorius. This horse scared me a bit and nobody should underestimate him. Result of last race didnt show his class because he didnt found a passage last furlong. This horse is really interesting and gain any attention for all your bets.

Good luck for your picks today.

Follow my Poker Twitter @CINK1D
Follow my Horseracing Twitter @AG_CGN
Ex Team Lucky Squad
Captain Ex-Regional Team Europe
Member Ex-Regional Team East of England
Member Ex-Luton Poker Club

CincinnatiKid

  • Regional Captain
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1108
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #597 on: May 28, 2012, 15:42:37 PM »
BLACK ARROW, no doubts that he"ll be the winner of Bavarian Classic Gr3. at Munich-Riem race course. He"s one of the top German Derby favourites. W. Buick booked as his jockey again. Owners are german Bundesliga football players Claudio Pizzaro (Bayern Munich) and Tim Borowski (Werder Bremen).
Follow my Poker Twitter @CINK1D
Follow my Horseracing Twitter @AG_CGN
Ex Team Lucky Squad
Captain Ex-Regional Team Europe
Member Ex-Regional Team East of England
Member Ex-Luton Poker Club

CincinnatiKid

  • Regional Captain
  • Platinum Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1108
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #598 on: May 28, 2012, 16:28:12 PM »
What a disappointment. What should I say, congrat to british connections of Caspar Netscher. Red Duke as 3rd runs also very well. Tai Chi never in the race and other real beaten.

Black Arrow finished 2nd. in Bavarian Classic very close to longshot Pakal.

Follow my Poker Twitter @CINK1D
Follow my Horseracing Twitter @AG_CGN
Ex Team Lucky Squad
Captain Ex-Regional Team Europe
Member Ex-Regional Team East of England
Member Ex-Luton Poker Club

noble1

  • Platinum Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2518
Re: Saturday Donkey
« Reply #599 on: May 29, 2012, 17:49:05 PM »

Epsom is nearly here, the Oaks and the Derby look like they met produce some useful sorts this year.. Camelot is a obvious possible but the price isn"t very tempting :).. Could Bonfire win it? it looks like it was decent Dante this year, will an extra 2furlongs suit though being a son of Manduro?, [are you backing it Achim?] considering this was his debut run Bonfire could be a lot closer ability wise to Camelot than what the market suggests.. Bonfire to my eye looks like a top 10f performer but the extra 2furlongs maybe just stretching it so from a value angle i"ve had a wee sized win bet on Parish Hall, Bolger has PH in the Irish 2000 Guineas, basically following the same prep routine as he did with New Approach, 21+ is a good win punt on betfair imho and a place bet as well :)
Astrology is well worth a place bet, he moved well despite the bog at Chester so to my eye he will handle quicker ground.. As a 2year old he was entered in the Futurity Stakes and moved better than all the rest [Parish Hall included] but when McCabe asked him to pick up his tail waved around and he swerved left to the rail finishing up 3rd.. Astrology"s last race as a 2year old, O"Brien entered him in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket and again he showed similar traits swerving to the rail...I"d put that down to the big wide open space of Newmarket and the Curragh and greenness, none of that was shown at Chester on his seasonal re-appearance in the Dee Stakes, Epsom"s tight turns and far less open track will suit him so i"ve had a small win bet and had a bit bigger place bet :)

so without the waffle...

Epsom Derby 2/6/2012
Astrology - win and place
Parish Hall - win and a place shame, this horse is seriously good


Some great racing at Epsom is approaching and i"m still backing Astrology for the Derby :)
The Oaks looks as if its between the Fugue, Maybe and Kissed, the Fugue is obvious and has been priced up about right, Maybe the same, Kissed on the other hand at best price 11"s on betfair is more of a betting proposition imho, only raced on soft so going questions to answer but looking at how she moves then the better going met/will bring about more improvement, her run in the Salsabil Stakes at Navan was impressive, both visually and by the stopwatch over the last 3furlongs winning by over eight lengths with hardly any pushing, three parts sister to Pour Moi [dam - Gwynn] adds a bit optimism that she"ll handle good to firm.. Build wise like Pour Moi she has that athletic horse look which ticks the box could she handle Epsom, so i"m having nibbles on betfair as she drifts currently :)
Of the rest -
Vow - long striding, still running green, deep chested suggests 1m4f no problem but maybe will prove to be better over further.. With that long stride plus how she went wide at the bend at Lingfield lto is what puts me off her, not only is the price off putting but how on earth will she handle running downhill around Tattenham Corner plus the camber too is rather stretching chancing odds of 5to6/1..
Outsiders -
Shirocco Star - obvious, sticks out like a sore thumb and the market has reacted, still worth a small dabble though..
Betterbetterbetter - not so obvious, 2nd to Good Morning Star in the bog at Chester who will win again if she ever gets conditions like that again so Betterbetterbetter wasn"t disgraced, she looked the winner coming into the home straight, a touch of the idles plus the soft ground got her beaten narrowly.. She gave the impression to me that better ground will suit and is worth a each way punt @33/40/1+ and a place bet on betfair.....