Saturday Donkey

[nosey-p]

some good races today

Sole Power for me but I agree, price on the short side

[noble1]

Epsom Derby [Saturday]

Dawn Approach - shorter odds than he was for the 2000 guineas over a trip where there is certainly more doubts, tbh you have to be bonkers to back him at current odds, 3/1+ would be more realistic.

Battle of Marengo - he has won his last 5 starts, it was a messy Derrinstown trial but he won it exactly like a 12f horse tackling a 10f race.. he beat Sugar Boy in the Ballysax, SB won well next time out at Sandown in the classic trial with Libertarian trailing 9 lengths back, that makes Libs subsequent Dante win look a bit iffy imho...

Ocovango - the Prix Greffulhe win beating Bravodino looks up to par as does his previous win in the Prix Mathet over Park Reel who went on to lose by a short head to [coolmoor owned] Tableaux in the Prix Hocquart.. its interesting that Tableaux swerves the Epsom Derby..

Chopin - won the Ehrmann cup by 8 lengths, tough to compare to the traditional Derby trials but he didn"t beat a lot imo, Global Bang isn"t a world beater...

Ruler of the World - Chester Vase winner by 6 lengths in a good time, he handled Chester well which is another positive and beautifully bred out of the Kingmambo mare Love Me True, another positive..

of the rest - Mars - i pegged him as a Derby horse before the 2000g and is a live outsider imo.. Libertarian looks all stamina and will be more interesting if he"s aimed at the St. Ledger.. Festive Cheer - has a bit a find with Ocovango based on his lto in the Prix Hocquart but he"s bred by Montjeu who"s progeny have a good strike rate in the Derby and they do tend to progress well so he has each way claims at a juicy price..

My 1-2-3-4

1 - Ocovango 1 point win @ 7/1 [5/1+ ok]
2 - Ruler of the World 1 point win @ 10/1 [13/2+ ok]
3 - Battle of Marengo
4 - Festive Cheer

It was such a slow 2000 Guineas this year and Dawn Approach"s win was flattered a bit imo and the the slow"ish pace over the first 5 furlongs caught a few flat footed, the proximity of Glory Awaits who raced handily and stole a march on the rest behind should set alarm bells ringing.. Add in the extra 4 furlongs, breeding and the equinome test in which Dawn Approach tested CC [Mr Bolger"s behind Equinome] makes this a must back against Dawn Approach imo...

http://www.equinome.com/

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BLDszCrwCFE[/youtube]

[noble1]

The Oaks [Friday 31st May]

the prices pretty much reflect the relative chances of those at the head of the Oaks market so its time to put my contrary head on as its more open than it looks imo, tbh on paper the std this year looks a tad sub-std compared to previous years.

so after watching the trials over again a few times the four that stood out were Liber Nauticus,Madame Defarge,The Lark and Talent.. of the four whose leg action looked like they"d appreciate soft ground i"m more drawn to Madame Defarge and The Lark [Liber Nauticus fits but the price is skinny now] and with Talent"s action the possibly soft ground maybe against her..

Madame Defarge - 1point win @20/1+ [16/1+ ok]
The Lark - 1point win @16/1+ [12/1+ ok]

both trained by Mr Bell and both looked to be carrying a bit of condition lto so i"m hoping for bundles of improvement both fitness wise and for ground preference...

[noble1]

EPSOM June 1st

2:05 - Haikbidiac 4/1+ bog 2point win [5/2+ ok]

3:15 - Fair Value 14/1+ bog 1point win [11/1+ ok]
        Swiss Cross 25/1+ bog 2point win [16/1+ ok]

as above Epsom Derby
4:00 - Ocovango 1 point win @ 7/1 [5/1+ ok]
        Ruler of the World 1 point win @ 10/1 [13/2+ ok]

[nosey-p]

2.00 Donny, Novirak
3.45 Donny, Queensberry Rules
3.30 Muss, Van Percy
       If I like Van Percy then I have to go with Blue Wave E.W 12/1
5.05 Muss, Karaka Jack
5.35 Muss, Snow Bay
4.00 Epsom, Libertarian EW 16/1

[CincinnatiKid]

Epson Derby: Ruler Of The World 9/1

German bred Chopin is a real good horse, but good enough for such a race? Not impossible and no surprise when he finished at the top 3. Ocovango, son of legendary german stallion Monsun is also possible to win this race. A bit personal doubts about Dawn Approach. Battle Of Marengo could be the horse to complete a 1-2 O" Brien triumph.

If rain will make heavy ground I"ll make a late single bet on Ocovango too.

Will combine this horses in my trifecta. Good luck!

[noble1]

1st race at epsom i"ll be interested to see how Salutation fares based on his 2nd behind Soviet Rock with High Troja finishing behind 2l back...

edit - Pasaka Boy wins , glad i avoided that race lol....

[CincinnatiKid]

Dawn Approach confirmed my doubts abouts his stamina. Pulled to much at the beginning so the jockey let him go. May be the reason of his result today. Guess best distance seems to be max 1m 2f. My pick made me happy, bet him 9/1, so good profit. After the replay of the race I wish a bit more confidence by Jamie Spencer. But all in all the connections around Chopin must be proudfull and I"m sure they"ve bought a real good horse.

[Waz1892]

Dawn Approach confirmed my doubts abouts his stamina. Pulled to much at the beginning so the jockey let him go. May be the reason of his result today. Guess best distance seems to be max 1m 2f. My pick made me happy, bet him 9/1, so good profit. After the replay of the race I wish a bit more confidence by Jamie Spencer. But all in all the connections around Chopin must be proudfull and I"m sure they"ve bought a real good horse.

a thank-you is due!  no idea on horses, and noted your tip, so went with it!

[CincinnatiKid]

Dawn Approach confirmed my doubts abouts his stamina. Pulled to much at the beginning so the jockey let him go. May be the reason of his result today. Guess best distance seems to be max 1m 2f. My pick made me happy, bet him 9/1, so good profit. After the replay of the race I wish a bit more confidence by Jamie Spencer. But all in all the connections around Chopin must be proudfull and I"m sure they"ve bought a real good horse.

a thank-you is due!  no idea on horses, and noted your tip, so went with it!

Congrat WAZ, nice to hear. To be honest, would be great to pick always the winning horses, but it"s not always the best idea to follow my tipps.   Happy to hear about your winning bet on Ruler Of The World and profitable odds.

Today the french derby will run at Chantilly race course. 19 runners an more than an easy race to bet. Decided to make a value bet on #4 LOCH GARMAN, trained by J. Bolger. 14/1 odds at the moment are profitable too. French trained horses INTELLO and SKY HUNTER are the favourites so I"m sure that France will bet "their" horses and my pick will also pay on place good money. Do you bet again my tip?   Good luck!

[CincinnatiKid]

International guests are favourite at 93. German 1000 Guineas at Dusseldorf race course. French BEATRICE H.Pantall) and UK based Melbourne Memories (C.Cox) to beat. My Pick is #4 CALYXA 7/1.

[CincinnatiKid]

Epsom Derby: Ruler Of The World

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8VNB-2VJFY&feature=youtu.be[/youtube]

Prix Du Jockey Club, French Derby: Loch Garman was really a disappointment. Never in the race and no moment, simply expressionless. 10th place. Intello an impressive winner.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBElMppYp7w[/youtube]

German 1000 Guineas with a thrilling and very close finish. Short neck my bet Calyxa beaten by Akuada.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2U8Dvues1Ec[/youtube]  (Race at 7:41min)

[noble1]

HAYDOCK
2:05 - Dazinski 20/1 bog 2point win [12/1+ ok]
        Palazzo Bianco 9/1 bog 1point win [6/1+ ok]

NEWMARKET
2:55 - Gatepost 12/1 bog 2point win [7/1+ ok]

[CincinnatiKid]

Haydock R 3 Timeform Jury Stakes  - AMARILLO (Place)

Haydock R 4 E.B.F. Cecil Frail Stakes  - GRACIA DIRECTA (Win/Place)

[noble1]

TV races on Ch4

NEWMARKET 1:45 - Brown Sugar,Musical Comedy and Stalactite stand out amongst the debut runners, the rest seem priced about right, the type of race where you have to be bonkers to bet in imho Gm Hopkins 6/4 to win against so many unexposed horses, excuse me as i vomit

HAYDOCK 2:05 - Dazinski and Palazzo Bianco for me, open looking race on paper but i prefer to side with horses that have had some Haydock course form over 14f+

NEWMARKET 2:20 - Assizes,Beaufort Twelve,Nabucco and Ehtedaam stand out for various reasons, odds wise Ehtedaam is way to short imho...

HAYDOCK 2:40 - all have a chance in this at the odds Nymphea and Souviens Toi purely on not being quite as exposed as the rest. Prussian and Ambivalent stand out and have been priced up about right so from a punting point of view don"t offer much in the ways of a edge...

NEWMARKET 2:55 - Gatepost ran well behind Fulbright and Duke of Firenze last year and has dropped in the weights, Hanagan booking is another positive.. Whozthecat,Intransigent,Summerinthecity,Enrol and Nocturn look the dangers..

HAYDOCK 3:15 - Red Duke might raise a few eyebrows given his recent form but the step down in trip and fast ground will suit and of the rest Pastoral Player and Red Jazz appeal at the odds..

NEWMARKET 3:30 - Angel Gabrial,Rawaki,No Heretic,Suegioo and Gabrial The Great to fight it out..

HAYDOCK 3:50 - Hoyam,Angels Will Fall and Gracia Directa look the likely trio imho