How do we maximise value here?

[AMRN]

Had this hand in the TGF Vegas Team comp last night, and had some debate with one of my team members on the rail about how best to maximise value. We agreed to disagree.... thought I would post it up here for debate.

Background to the hand...

- This is the final table of a 204 runner tourney (brag), where team points increase according to a pretty significant ladder
- Mouth has VPIP of 42% and PFR of 22%. He has preflop 3-bet stat of 5.2%, and a Won When Seen Flop stat in excess of 40%
- He has repeatedly folded to my LP steals stating that he doesn"t want to get involved with me
- From the button, I have recently 3-bet the same player"s CO preflop raise 3 orbits in a row, and Mouth has made comments about me getting jiggy
- He and I are chip leaders at the table


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SebastianCatx (BB): 40,037.10
sjrbs (UTG): 120,094.02
kzz01 (UTG+1): 33,401.36
PlazaPPP (MP): 41,244.80
BigBills2011 (MP+1): 68,400.56
mouth667 (MP+2): 131,574.05
typ1calx (LP): 21,994.10
doddgy12345 (CO): 42,033.49
MKKOSH14 (BTN): 47,528.62
Torterra (SB): 65,691.90

Torterra posts ante 200.00, SebastianCatx posts ante 200.00, sjrbs posts ante 200.00, kzz01 posts ante 200.00, PlazaPPP posts ante 200.00, BigBills2011 posts ante 200.00, mouth667 posts ante 200.00, typ1calx posts ante 200.00, doddgy12345 posts ante 200.00, MKKOSH14 posts ante 200.00, Torterra posts SB 1,000.00, SebastianCatx posts BB 2,000.00

Pre Flop: (5000.00) sjrbs has kc ks

sjrbs raises to 4,500.00, fold, fold, fold, mouth667 raises to 10,000.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, sjrbs raises to 25,500.00, mouth667 calls 15,500.00

Flop: (56000.00, 2 players)  kd qd ::  

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So, now what? Suggest what line you take here, and your reasons why. Also interested in your plan for the rest of the hand depdendant on how Mouth responds to your action.....

[Marty719]

Bet 28k. Still gives illusion of fold equity. Dnt mind a c/r if villain is super laggy but thrs sum bad turn cards for us and for villain.

Villain thinks we r aggro and we will always bet our air here.

[GarethC]

His range is so weak after this flop, he probably has small/medium pairs or something like AQ/AJ the vast majority of the time - so weak lead for thin value and to induce. Bet like 18 - 20k and get the rest in at the next available opportunity. Wouldn"t be surprised if he just folded but betting is way better than checking - just hope he gets frisky with something random or decides to peel one off with some pair.

[noble1]

if your 3bet % on him is correct then thats fairly average, all reads/feel based as to how much of his 3bet range calls a 4bet, as you hold KK plus one on the board and a Queen of diamond as well then it pretty much would weigh his range more to JJ QQ AA and i wouldn"t be overly concerned about him holding a flush draw [AJdd and would he flat a 4bet with AJdd anyhows ?]
Its either cbet 1/2 pot ish or check the flop for me, if he reraises the cbet then obv get it all in, if he bets out to your check then just call and then check turn, if he checks behind then i would also check the river to him...I would not check raise flop as this may allow him to get away from AA.. obv if he fires out again on turn then you get your stack in...

edit - just to add if he flats the cbet then check turn and river , give him a chance to bluff or try to make him feel his pair of aces are ahead...

[jbworldwide]

I would lead here as well, just from that action his hand feels like AK or QQ, either way you are probably going to stack him with these cards.

I would lead the flop about 30k which feels like a good sized cont bet. If he has it he will prob raise to defend against a flush, he may even jam a flush draw. You are trying to induce a jam here with a 30k bet he can"t really call into an 80k pot if he has something he will jam. Also by leading out here you do disguise your hand to a certain degree as a flopped set will be checked a lot of the time to induce a bluff.

Don"t rely on someone else to build the pot for you.

If he flats and the turn is a dud, all in.
If he flats and turn us diamond, I don"t think I"m folding here, if he does gave 2 diamonds, AJ, A10 or even J10 then well fished sir!

Either way it"s all going in on the turn.

[noble1]

I would lead here as well, just from that action his hand feels like AK or QQ, either way you are probably going to stack him with these cards.

I would lead the flop about 30k which feels like a good sized cont bet. If he has it he will prob raise to defend against a flush, he may even jam a flush draw. You are trying to induce a jam here with a 30k bet he can"t really call into an 80k pot if he has something he will jam. Also by leading out here you do disguise your hand to a certain degree as a flopped set will be checked a lot of the time to induce a bluff.

Don"t rely on someone else to build the pot for you.

If he flats and the turn is a dud, all in.
If he flats and turn us diamond, I don"t think I"m folding here, if he does gave 2 diamonds, AJ, A10 or even J10 then well fished sir!

Either way it"s all going in on the turn.

with AMRN holding 2 kings i would not really expect to see AK to much , likewise AT or JT with such a low 3bet %

just to add to my previous reply if the flop goes check check then i would 1/2 pot turn...

[AMRN]

Everyone talks about a half pot c-bet, but I don"t really see what this achieves.

Think about stack sizes - the effective stack size at start of hand is my 120k.
25k went in pre, leaving 95k behind.
Pot is 56k
Half pot c-bet of 28k makes pot 84k, and leaves me 67k behind
If he shoves, pot will be 84k + 28k + 67k (effective) = 179k
For me the equation would then be call 67k to win 179k

Mouth knows I have a hand of some reasonable strength - he knows I"m never going away for those odds if he were to shove over a half pot c-bet.

So, I don"t think the half pot c-bet does maximise value unless he has a made hand that he wants to commit to.

As for his range...

AA? doubtful. He"s been really aggressive (42/22), but also pretty straight forward with it - he is unlikely to flat with AA, at least not against the other big stack at the table - he will want it all in pre.

QQ? Feasible

AK/KQ? unlikely - I can see three Kings.

Ax? unlikely - he"s better than that.

JJ or lower pair - highly likely.

So, if I c-bet half pot, the only realistic hand I will get paid off by is QQ, and that range is far too narrow to guarantee getting paid by betting.

In my opinion, given the action so far, and my previous history on the table, checking exudes uber-strength. It also gives him chance to control pot size by checking behind, but I want to get all in here.

Shove? Given everything said above, not much different between shoving and c-betting half pot, considering stack sizes.... but again, his calling range is too narrow.

C-bet smaller than half pot? Gives him the opportunity to bluff - the pot and stack sizes may imply a little fold equity (in his mind). Small donk bet may also look like a defensive probing lead out.

I think there"s more to consider than the usual standard c-bet half pot, or check hoping to raise.

[jbworldwide]

Shoving just seems wrong in this spot, you seem to take issue with a cont bet though, you want him to shove at best, call next best, fold worst. If he has the top end of the range he shoves, any lower pair he may call, anything else he prob folds. The flop is horrible for JJ lower, he might call to catch.

You don"t want to check him into the turn either, and as I said you don"t want to rely on him to build the pot for you.

It is hard to analyse because I don"t know his patterns to best induce the shove and I"m not used to using stats to determine action

[noble1]

Everyone talks about a half pot c-bet, but I don"t really see what this achieves.

Think about stack sizes - the effective stack size at start of hand is my 120k.
25k went in pre, leaving 95k behind.
Pot is 56k
Half pot c-bet of 28k makes pot 84k, and leaves me 67k behind
If he shoves, pot will be 84k + 28k + 67k (effective) = 179k
For me the equation would then be call 67k to win 179k

Mouth knows I have a hand of some reasonable strength - he knows I"m never going away for those odds if he were to shove over a half pot c-bet.

So, I don"t think the half pot c-bet does maximise value unless he has a made hand that he wants to commit to.

As for his range...

AA? doubtful. He"s been really aggressive (42/22), but also pretty straight forward with it - he is unlikely to flat with AA, at least not against the other big stack at the table - he will want it all in pre.

QQ? Feasible

AK/KQ? unlikely - I can see three Kings.

Ax? unlikely - he"s better than that.

JJ or lower pair - highly likely.

So, if I c-bet half pot, the only realistic hand I will get paid off by is QQ, and that range is far too narrow to guarantee getting paid by betting.

In my opinion, given the action so far, and my previous history on the table, checking exudes uber-strength. It also gives him chance to control pot size by checking behind, but I want to get all in here.

Shove? Given everything said above, not much different between shoving and c-betting half pot, considering stack sizes.... but again, his calling range is too narrow.

C-bet smaller than half pot? Gives him the opportunity to bluff - the pot and stack sizes may imply a little fold equity (in his mind). Small donk bet may also look like a defensive probing lead out.

I think there"s more to consider than the usual standard c-bet half pot, or check hoping to raise.

Now i"m not there Steve so all in all you should have a better insight as to how he proceeds with his range, i wouldn"t read to much into his PFR% , the important stat/read is that he is pretty selective in his 3betting, i wouldn"t totally rule out AA in his 4betting flat range as from what you describe then is it possible he feels your range maybe wide"ish??
Its all down to what you feel his 4bet flat range is imho, if he has flatted AA then he has just had the worst flop likewise JJ TT which are most likely to fold or hope for a cheap showdown.. If you cbet 1/2 ish at least it puts AK in your range and AA may flat and maybe QQ, would he flat an underpair expecting you to cbet your whole range? all on your image i guess... tbh with villains 5% 3bet stat all i can see him holding are AA QQ JJ TT maybe AQs and you checking doesn"t necessarily exude strength as if for say villain holds QQ then would he not think you would check AA on a flop texture like this in a 4bet pot?? hence a check call line or cbet flop depending on how you think your image/how wide your 4bet range is perceived by villain.

[George2Loose]

mouth is a she- Caroline cove

[George2Loose]

Marty has it right. U wanna bet uber small to give the impression of F/E. In fact for balance I may even bluff like 18k here. So I would bet 18k in the hope of inducing or building a pot.

If villian smooth calls I may even check most non scary turns to set up a river shove or hopefully induce a turn bet.

TBH checking flop isnt too bad either because with stack sizes you dont need 3 streets of value

[noble1]

mouth is a she- Caroline cove

lol to be fair steve did write ""he"" in his post ...  now the question is Caroline ""very refined, a quiet and shy lady, who only ever goes in with the nuts.""  or is it ""does she have bigger balls than most of the blokes! ""

[Fatcatstu]

Bet small, about 15k hoping to induce or at least squeeze another bit out of him. There is more ways of getting the chips in then smaking half the pot in on the flop. If he is super aggressive as stated then he will prob re raise your 15k, i would flat it and then we can ramp it up on turn?

As james said, i am almost certainly never good enough to fold top set no matter what happens down the streets.

[dwh103]

Is it always a 4-bet pre here? Given the Villain"s stats and the stack sizes, smoothing his 3-bet feels like the best way to maximise your value.

Does depend on player dynamics, did you feel he might stack off light vs an UTG 4-bet? If you were later I"d be 4-betting away but from UTG it looks to me like your range gets pretty narrow.

The stacks are shallow enough that you shouldn"t be put in many awkward situations post flop if you call. Pot would be 25k, effective stacks of around 110k - still only need to get value from two streets to get the lot. If you check and he fires, you"re getting as much in as if he smooths your 4-bet. From your description I"d say he doesn"t 5-bet stack off or call the 4-bet often enough to justify it.

For me, the disguise is worth the risk in this particular situation. As played, prefer a 1/4 pot lead or a ship - whatever you"d think he"d do with JJ in that spot in essence.

[AMRN]

OK here"s how it played out.....

I went for the line of the weak small donk bet to try and induce a shove by offering apparent fold equity..... I lead out for 12k into the 56k pot, and she snap-folded.

At the time, my railer suggested the small bet was not the optimal play and we debated for a while.... hence posting it here for review.