Author Topic: Keeping Warm in Winter  (Read 276092 times)

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pables

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #885 on: March 02, 2016, 23:04:14 PM »
Keep it going Rodders
I just got match catcher btw  ;D
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pables

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #886 on: March 02, 2016, 23:10:22 PM »
10 10 hand ok
q q hand for sure if I have qs the 7 comes more likely heart  :D
aq nice value
WCOAP online Omaha Bronze 2009
WCOAP Stud Gold 2010
UK Team championship 2011 individual Silver
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WCOAP 2018 ROE silver
WCOAP 2019 Mix max Bracelet
European Team event 2019 Silver with team Ireland

AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #887 on: March 03, 2016, 19:05:18 PM »
Proper post is on it way but Adrian Lewis is 3.5 to beat Phil Taylor tonight on Betfair. I will be getting on that for sure, this will be the first of Rodder"s WCOAP tips.

Will be posting a full update shortly.
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #888 on: March 03, 2016, 19:37:29 PM »
Not the best of first tips that haha. I think I might have to make Taylor second favourite for this at the moment him vs MVG in Glasgow will a one hell of a battle.

Day 3 of The Mission in March then and so far I have not veered off course. Let"s see how long that lasts *lol*. Firstly let me say thanks to Ian for the comments, I will discuss with you I am sure in Stratford.

It is Thursday Night and, as mentioned above, that means Premier League Darts at the moment, I do really enjoy this competition seeing the best players meeting each other every week. I find it hard to see past MVG to win the league portion but in the knockout anything can happen. Although MVG has won pretty much everything lately he has not exactly dominated the majors. Still expect Gary Anderson to do well if he gets into the top 4. Will check his odds at that point.

Played some poker tonight but did not play very well ending up about $13 down after 200 hands tbh should have been more down but got a bit lucky when I had AQ > KK AIPF for a pot of about $15 Vs a short stack. The Ace from space arrived on the river. Still happy enough with the game at the moment and expect to be competitive in Stratford, hopefully do a bit more than just that as well. The main aims are obvious firstly try and go top of the rankings for season nine. This will not be so easy as the man currently sat at the top is two time APAT Champion Brian Yates. I would make Brian a decent sized favourite due to his obvious edge over me in mixed games and his slight advantage in the points. Needless to say it is not a two horse race and other players are likely to come into play at some point. Jason Kemp and Don Roberts are two people I would say are in with a shot of making a comeback run at it. The second aim on the Championship is to try and extend my advantage in the all time rankings over the great John Murray, again a very tough ask.

Will be looking to keep up my volume in matched betting as well with an accumulator going on with Paddy Power later and hopefully Ladbrokes tomorrow as I do like to have 4/5 running at all times. Tonight I need Barcelona to win to continue to increase the profit margin on the ones I already have going. They are on my William Hill accumulator if they win I will be assured a profit of £10 on that one then need to wait for the weekend for the next legs.

Rodder"s song of the day is for everybody who is heading to the WCOAP and playing the main event.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCy7lLQwToI

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCy7lLQwToI[/youtube]
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 12:00:43 PM by Chipaccrual »
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #889 on: March 04, 2016, 19:57:45 PM »
OK this is getting to be a habit 4 days out of 4 in March with updates (I get a pass for the next two days as the forum is offline - yay). It is Friday night but I am sadly working on Saturday so won"t be able to go to the football however I am looking forward to the Newport County Vs Bristol Rovers derby game just a day before I travel to WCOAP. I could have had a ticket to see Swansea as well this week, I have not been to many games this year due to work, poker and things I have seen just 4 Newport County games (and one Swansea game).

Anyway I have played a few hands today and done OK being up about $80. Here are some fun hands.

***********************************************************************************

This is me on the right side of a 50/50 (although the the flop is played terribly by my opponent)

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18161855_8274469F4C


This is me getting pretty lucky

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18162144_599D0AAE4F


This is a very rare piece of footage - this is me playing a hand well (I am way ahead or way behind on the turn he is completely polarized)

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18162100_D49B6D9BB8

***********************************************************************************

Still generally happy with how I am playing at the moment still seem to be winning more than I lose (not sure how, the luckbox must be doing it"s job *lol*). I need to do a little work on my PLO game before going to Stratford I know. I did just realise that by this time in two weeks I will have completed work and will probably be making preparations for WCOAP. Tomorrow I will present the essential guide to spending a week away playing poker and how travelling away from home has changed from when I was kid. I have mentioned this before but this is definitely different to a standard APAT thinking about it I am thinking about the correct strategy for various tournaments. Normally when heading to an APAT weekend it is who is going what time is everybody gettingthere and is there a good pub to go too on the Friday night. Whilst I have no doubt we will do some of that stuff in Stratford this one is about poker first and foremost and is the only event I say that about.

Setup a matched Accumulator on Ladbrokes today so I now have 4 running ideal result in tonight"s game is a Middlesbrough win which would advance my position in two of them. EV of them all together at the moment is about £25 which is OK for a quick 15 minutes after work each day. Love matching accumulators it has a strategy all of its own knowing when to lay each leg off and know the EV of the situation at that time and setting them up to get the max bang from the insurance, it"s not as complex as poker but still holds a lot of interest for me. BTW if people don"t have a clue what I am on about in this section and want too ask me at some point when you see me :-)

A Song for today - this is one I often listen too before playing a day two at APAT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OvpzForHyU

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OvpzForHyU[/youtube]
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 12:02:00 PM by Chipaccrual »
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #890 on: March 05, 2016, 08:09:09 AM »
Can"t do a proper update today due to forum being offline later so will give you this to ponder.

A very interesting spot Vs a reg in an early morning session, a tough spot. Against many players who 3-bet here the hand is an easy fold. Pretty sure my 4-bet gets enough folds to be profitable though against this specific player obviously never folding after making the 4-bet though if he has AK so be it.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18169124_2C05354F8D

Nicked about $20 from the game over 200 hands this morning
« Last Edit: March 05, 2016, 08:15:00 AM by AAroddersAA »
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #891 on: March 06, 2016, 11:53:17 AM »
Maintaining my record of a post every day so far. I am so good at this *lol*. Smart money says I manage to get all the way at least as far as the 20th as working next weekend however I arrive in Stratford on 20th so anything could happen from there.

I was in work yesterday and somebody asked me if it was possible to get the big screens changed to show the darts. I did not even know the UK Open was on but today is the last day. I don"t think it is possible to bet against MVG but Taylor looks in great form at the moment. MVG is on another planet though and right now would almost certainly have beaten Taylor in his prime. My only doubt is that last season MVG won everything accept the Premier League and the Worlds. I think this year he needs to deliver in the big tournaments although I am sure he will. I was again not able to go to Newport to watch the game yesterday but Scott Boden delivered yet again for County as they beat a good Wycombe side, should be pretty much safe now. If we can maintain our current squad through the summer and add a few I honestly think we could push for the play offs next season.

Two weeks today I will be travelling by train to the WCOAP. I leave Swansea at 8:30am and arrive in London at 12:36, long journey due to the engineering works.

Travelling in 2016 is very different to how it was a few years ago and the things you take away have changed a lot. I remember going to Scotland to watch a rugby international in I think 1999. We went by coach to London and then flew to Edinburgh, I took a book with me to pass the time on the journey and we took some cards too. We did have mobile phones at that point (not all of us but some of us) however all we could do was phone and text so had to make plans for meeting up and where we were going to be ect. These day I will be travelling to WCOAP with an iPhone that has a data connection that runs faster than anything that was available at home in 1999. We certainly did not have internet connections on the move. I will take my iPad and Laptop, the ipad is for use on the journey and at the casino to keep in touch with the rest of the world and find out what is going on and where everybody is. The laptop is for playing online poker/betting. I will also take a Chromecast to connect to the TV so I can watch things like Netflix. I also have full access to Sky Sports and various TV shows on my Laptop if needed. Facebook will make it easy to stay in touch with the rest of the world so everybody will know how to event is going. This has all changed completely in under 20 years, I do wonder what will happen in the next 20 years.

Poker Update - Here are some hands I have played today


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182115_AD6F64FAD9

This is a play that I can"t decide is it is profitable or not, raising the donk bet. I am currently having a lot of success with it but has previously stopped using it entirely due to it working so rarely. A close one.


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182183_B5FDD6A214

Always nice to be on the right side of a cooler but he really causes this problem himself by calling the 3-bet pre. I like how I play this hand and never go broke in his seat.


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182199_732C56A6D9

This is quite a straightforward fold unless you have a really good reason to call. However I have seen a lot of people want to get it in here for all sorts of reasons, his line is so strong though that one pair is just not good here. I really like the fold. There are some arguements that can be made for calling (or shoving) I don"t think they are good ones though.


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182158_2AB61923EC

Looking at this one I again like my play but wonder if I should be more on the river, pretty sure I should, I had him on the Jack tbh but if he is calling $3 he is probably calling $5 as well, over-betting might have been the best way to go on the river here.


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18182209_2E5BEAA2DF

Again I like how I play this one. Once the set hits I need to follow the best line to get the money all in. I think the call is OK against his entire range on the flop and the shove on the turn is good as it forces draws to call me and there are a lot of scare cards on the river which results in me not getting paid.


Profit this morning was about $45 over 300 hands.

My Matched Accumulators are looking good. I had a losing leg on my Bet Victor one yesterday (Chelsea) so the EV on that one is going to be +£5 about. Today the first game I want to win is Feyenoord (also need Barcelona to win on my William Hill) at 3:45 today after that I need a Napoli win (although their odds drifting has reduced profit a little). It will be a good profit either way. Will see how much I am up on Accumulators and general betting later today. Has certainly been a good week though.

Will probably play a few more hands later and might jump in a few tournaments this evening whilst watching the darts.

Song for the day is one with a Welsh theme and is aimed at the team event at the WCOAP, although I won"t be playing for Wales I will definitely be supporting them, if they don"t win hopefully one of the other home nations do. The England team will take some beating imo.

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRtnWVvDX6k[/youtube]
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 11:59:34 AM by Chipaccrual »
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #892 on: March 07, 2016, 20:16:51 PM »
Well I have single figures working days until WCOAP now. Considering taking a break for a week from playing next week to go in fresh which I think may be a good idea. In work today we were discussing who will win the Premier League this season and with 9 games to go I have almost no idea. I think I would pick Tottenham if forced but would love to see Leicester win it, would it be the biggest upset of our life times? I suspect it would given they were 5000/1 at the start of the season. I wonder what they were to make Champions League as that may well be up there as well.

Played a very boring session of poker today, was down by £14. This is the only interesting hand I play it poorly as the river bet is awful (fine up till that point). I rep nothing and he always has something and is almost always going to call based on how the hand has gone.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18204678_AEC26D28AF

So WCOAP prediction time. This is where I try to pick the final table, nine names, how many will I get right? Anybody fancy posting their shot at it? Today"s prediction is quite a simple one and likely to be the most tipped person of all the reg"s to run deep and possibly final. He is without a doubt one of the best players of all the apat regulars and in my opinion the very best by a reasonable distance. The only player I definitely feel out-classed by when he is at my table (there are plenty is is a good battle with but only one I don"t feel I have a realistic chance against long term). This guy can read the game better than anybody, I once spent a whole day playing on his table and we played several hands together, every time I didn"t have it he called (or raised) every time I did have it he folded. I still made the final table of that event but he went on to win and and then won the next one as well. He is a 4 time final tabler and a two time APAT Champion. My first prediction for the final table of the main event in Stratford is the Captain of Team Wales - Warren Jones.

Away from poker I completed two of my matched accumulators making £18 from my William Hill one and £5 from my Ladbrokes one. I messed up the Paddy Power and Bet Victor ones by including a game from next week (Barcelona Vs Arsenal) but that is OK it will just delay it a bit, I can still setup a new William Hill and they allow larger bets anyway on the insurance. Bet365 are doing a £50 Free Bet offer on Wednesday so expecting to make about £30 off that as well. Will also convert some other free bets I have this week. Love matched betting. Not because it makes much money (it does not really) but the fact you have to pick your games and figure out which games are not likely to drift too much on the exchanges I find it very enjoyable.

Here is today"s song. Just because I like it at the moment, no other reason

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISvTjW0NrJY[/youtube]
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 11:59:06 AM by Chipaccrual »
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s4ooter

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #893 on: March 08, 2016, 12:44:50 PM »
Main is a minefield so VBOL with predictions on that!

Would rather see some 8game predictions, that"s the true test! It"s the APAT version of the Chip Reese comp!!

I think that is the bracelet the hardcore wanna win!!
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AMRN

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #894 on: March 08, 2016, 12:53:24 PM »

Main is a minefield so VBOL with predictions on that!

Would rather see some 8game predictions, that"s the true test! It"s the APAT version of the Chip Reese comp!!

I think that is the bracelet the hardcore wanna win!!


Definitely agree, and I love the fact that it is priced at the same level as the Main, and ahead of some other sides. I had a choice of which weekend to play, and it was tough to avoid the Main and PLO events, but couldn"t miss the chance for a Mixed Game event like this.


@Rodders - loving reading your daily updates.... keep it going mate.

AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #895 on: March 08, 2016, 19:44:03 PM »
It is a great honour to see posts from more legends of APAT. I have to agree Dann and Steve here, although the 8 game is not something I am that bothered about playing (I am just a holdem fish you know) I think it has been very well recieved and in general people seem to be well up for playing it so vwp to APAT on that one of course. Think it will attract some new players as well which can only be good. I have mixed thoughts about it being the same price as the main event, it gives it prestige for sure but may make it less likely some people will play. Either way love the concept.

I am not entirely sure who is playing it and who is not but here are some predictions for the final table just for Dann.

Carl Pilgirm, Steve Redfern, Matt Carter and John MUrray

I think the range of games is excellent and consider myself lucky to be able to go to the whole event (near enough).

So anyway in honour of Dann and Steve I switched the game to PLO today, somehow ended up ahead £43.49 from around 200 hands. This hand helped


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18217815_6F3F53BF85

Personally I think he should be the flop here. Just to say I am a LOT less confident of my reads on this game than the NLHE version. If he raises the flop it is quite hard, probably a fold if he raises the turn.


http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18217745_B4E7C00D3B

Maybe I miss a bet on the river here but I don"t think so, not sure what I should do if he pots the irver, probably fold.


Won a big hand 3 handed which I lost where I get it in on the flop with a massive draw Vs two made hands and win. Luckboxing FTW.

Placed a £5 Free Bet on 2-1 to Real Madrod tonight, looking to Lay for some in play profit (will try and lay after the first goal as I expect there to be a few. Also done a price boost on Middlesboro, Real and Woldburg, laid on Betfair to make risk free but will make about £13 if it comes in. New accumulators go on tomorrow.

Tomorrow find out my thoughts on the New F1 season which starts the weekedn after next. Right off to watchthe football now.

A Topical Video on You Tube many of you will enjoy

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py-0RvwPgKY[/youtube]


Main is a minefield so VBOL with predictions on that!

Would rather see some 8game predictions, that"s the true test! It"s the APAT version of the Chip Reese comp!!

I think that is the bracelet the hardcore wanna win!!

imo that is the cash Championship
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 11:58:48 AM by Chipaccrual »
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Sugar_Free

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #896 on: March 09, 2016, 11:46:45 AM »

Carl Pilgirm, Steve Redfern, Matt Carter and John MUrray


Save your money Rodders!! It"s the same day as my birthday party, I"ve tried to get out of it but SWMBO is having none of it.
S4 G UK Team - LPM
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s4ooter

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #897 on: March 09, 2016, 12:34:42 PM »
Think the cash champs has lost some appeal. I know that Chris, Simon, Dwayne and I are all playing 8G over cash now.

Gonna be fun!!
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #898 on: March 09, 2016, 17:55:25 PM »

Think the cash champs has lost some appeal. I know that Chris, Simon, Dwayne and I are all playing 8G over cash now.

Gonna be fun!!

It is in the wrong place (although I entirely understand why it is there. I will just pick all of you for the final table of the 8 game, I have to hit somebody from that list surely? Who are your shouts? Are you all there for the entire festival?
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AAroddersAA

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Re: A March Mission - WCOAP 2016 Edition
« Reply #899 on: March 09, 2016, 17:58:36 PM »


Carl Pilgirm, Steve Redfern, Matt Carter and John MUrray


Save your money Rodders!! It"s the same day as my birthday party, I"ve tried to get out of it but SWMBO is having none of it.


Fair play Matt, Night on the beer FTW it is then. No doubt we will see you later in the festival.

Well it is now ten more sleeps until the WCOAP begins. Right now it is almost certainly the thing I am looking forward to the second most of 2016. Although if I do the IPO in Dublin that could rival it.

As some people my know I am a big fan of Formula One and the new season starts on the same day as the WCOAP (qualifying session at least). Testing is complete and Mercedes, as expected, remain the benchmark it. Sadly McHonda still seem a long way away, expect this season to be Jenson Buttons last. Hopefully Alonso will go on for a few more seasons and have the chance to gain some success with the team. Red Bull look nowhere but Torro Rosso look half decent, we will see if they remain there throughout the season. I see a decent battle between Toro Rosso, Williams and maybe Force Inida behind Merecedes and Ferarri. I expect Hamilton to win the title unless Ferrari are much better than expected as even if they are on par I would expect Hamilton to get the better of Vettel. Rosberg could be involved if he makes a good start which may advantage Vettel as Merc could have two drivers fighting for the title against only one from Ferrari. My top three are 1) Hamilton 1) Rosberg 3) Vettel (not really ground breaking)

Did a very decent session of Poker today 1000 hands (was off work due to being in this weekend). Pleased with my session today, I won $122 and played well most of the time, one or two hands that could have been better but that is always the case. Right now I am running really good but really happy with my form going into the WCOAP over $1000 up already this year on the Stars Hydra ($25 6-max) Zoom after today in what is a pretty tough game. This suggests my basic play is good and looking back through I am playing the main reg"s well if I maintain this level through the WCOAP I have a chance of over taking Brian in the POTY race, gonna be really hard but have a chance. Here are a good few hands form today. By the way Friday will be the last poker update as my game is where I need it and will be taking a break before Stratford to be on top form before the start.


This is a stange hand and is all about the King hitting the turn that is what makes the triple barrell possible after he checks to me 3 times

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18225878_B102BB5AD4


This next hand might well not be played perfectly but when he raise a draw heavy flop I know his range is largely draws

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18225887_D55735FB3D


It"s easy to miss a value bet on the river in this hand but he has a pair that he is calling with too often to do that

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18225907_D360227029


Bit of a mis-step here but BvB is a strange dynamic. OOP I should not call the small 3-bet though reverse implied odds are too big

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18226072_CFB5FE8D48


Hard one to read this one, after he bet the turn the river does not help him and he should check most hands, he CAN have a monster but would expect bigger bets.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18226364_2111F339BD


This is a mistake, not sure what I am doing preflop here, he was quite a tight player but don"t have the odds for that call. Not a hand to be pleased with.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18226398_4BD2333B47


Really like my play here though against a super aggro

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18227353_34FFFD115F


Need to remember to make these folds, they are very easy by now tbh.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18229427_C61FF248CA


Getting full value from AA here. I have my opponent marked as a good player so not sure what he is doing here.

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/18229353_47A69F2347


So there you have it, not perfect but confident of being able to out perform most people in this game.

Time to pick the second final tablist in the main event then. This man is an APAT LEGEND. A great poker player and one of the most respected men on the APAT tour as both a poker player and general APAT guy. He is active on the forum and is reliable for sharing any APAT updates on Facebook. He is also somebody who will always try to make new comers to APAT welcome, and somebody who a lot of us could learn something from in this way. Although he is more of an Omaha player than a Holdem player this has not stopped him winning two live golds and WCOAP Bracelet and most impressively top the APAT money list. The Season 6 UK and Eorpean Champion and my second selection for the final table at the 2016 WCOAP, the man himself, Mr. Carl Pilgrim

To be honest the first two obviously pick themselves, its gets harder after this. Today"s song is partly aimed at the first two selections and what winning this event could mean to them.

For all you people who have Bet365 accounts they are doing a £50 free Bet on the Chelsea game tonight, you have to bet £50 pre match to get a risk free in play £50 Bet. I will be completing it as a matched bet so will make about £30 off this offer. This will put me just over £100 up on Matched betting this month, should be more but locked money up for a week due to getting the last leg of two accumulators wrong. Will have to wait until Friday to create new accumulators though nothing worth doing at the moment.

Song for the day is one for everybody travelling to the WCOAP and what this event can mean

[youtube=425,350]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jukv9Q1eR2g[/youtube]
« Last Edit: March 09, 2016, 19:53:54 PM by Chipaccrual »
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Still trying to think of something amusing to write in this bit.