hmmm not the best move imho guys, are u looking at this in the right way? cash is about extracting value, is just shoving all in going to be the best EV move?
of course it can be player specific, there is always that, but, really [dramatic pause] shove??
Sorry for taking so long to actually put a response to this together but I wanted to make sure I did a good one. (because Noble has an excellent point here)
Is shoving to go be the most +EV move? I think it is.
He has called a standard raise preflop so I have no idea what he could have at that point. Flop comes down fairly dry (an unlikely straight draw). The King is a good card for me as it hits some of his range.
I "c-bet" for around 3/4 pot and he calls. With so few draws out there, he could have a King or a pair like nines or tens. Yes he could also have a set and if he does it"s nh at this point.
The turn changes nothing but puts a flush draw out there but unless he has something like KQs then it doesn"t help him. We have a pot that is around $5 and he bets $1.50 into it leaving him with about $10 behind. I really do think he has something at this point and calling just seems terrible (there is just not enough air in his range that he is going to barrel on the river). I also think it"s likely he has the king. So I am going to raise. The most sensible raise size is going to be a shove. It would be really unusual for him to call a raise to say $5 but not call an allin. Also even if he does then the river might make the board more scary and even if we are still ahead we may miss value.
I would therefore suggest than in this spot shoving for value is the right play. The only reason to not to raise is if we think he has nothing and will bet the river, I think we lose value with this play.
Rodders look out any material on the subject of the
way ahead way behind concept, in position and out of position..
I really think judging by various hh"s i"ve seen you post over time that this will help your game a lot. The biggest leak imho at these stakes is that players over play there over pairs and forgive me if i am wrong but [totally honest sincere etc opinion] it won"t surprise me at all that if you analysed all your hh"s that you maybe a tad leaky with them based on your current thought process. [not just losing to a set etc but losing value in spots when way ahead plus add in minimising your losses, it all adds up to those extra bb"s you can put on your win rate]
Honestly i"m not a big fan of in a vacuum with no reads analysis but on the above hh villains action does not suggest strength imo.. With no reads in general at these stakes villains will cc cc top pair or ch/r turn maybe the flop etc so to shove just lets him play [make his decision easier] his range better.. He can fold all his pp"s [only has 2 outs] his weak FD"s can now find a fold etc etc.. Until i had reads of sorts or a general feel on villains style then i"d treat his weak donk bet as a check and base/treat my action on the turn as that. A smaller bet say $4 may get one more call out of a weak king, a weak FD or 9T 99 TT JJ etc.. Flatting his weak turn donk may get extra on the river from a king etc etc... All in all it would be far easier to assess with some idea/read on villains style etc, so full circle back around to concepts etc, understanding these better than others at your stake level will help you categorise opponent ability and get better general reads/feel with every showdown that you see..
A general quick thought on turn donk bets, it can be used to get value from opponents that you think checks behind a lot. Against opponents that barrel turns frequently, the turn donk bet can hinder there turn bluffs. [all dependent on board texture etc there level of thought] A turn donk can induce some types to over play, bluff or go to far with tptk or over pairs
etc when you do it for value..
The cc flop lead turn is just a variation/different line on rather than check raising air on a dry flop for instance, we just mix it up, cc lead turn looks more like you have something, it makes it harder for the opponent to put as much air in your range. Its a line you can use for all sorts of purposes, be it bluffing, value or when you pick up draws..
I am definitely not suggesting this opponent grasps the uses of turn donks by the way
Sorry in advance if you think you are ok in the over pair department, another stat you could look at [if you have a tracker] is your position stats, look at all hands played ip and oop... [not just losers but winners as well, could"ve you got more value etc, lost less on the losers]
ASK, QUESTION, QUERY + BE CREATIVE. KNOW WHERE THE FOLD BUTTON IS
work on those reads fella
Break your game down, if you can afford it then hire a good well regarded coach at the stakes you play. This may help a lot getting the building blocks/thought process/leaks you maybe over looking fine tuned.. Sometimes things just get foggy or we get stuck in a rut and all we need is a nudge in the right direction..
Also ask other friends/poker colleagues who know your game better far more than i do for there no fuss frank opinions on possible weak/leaky areas in your poker style/game etc...
Wales won OMG
England may only score 3 or 4 Tuesday lol
regards
noble
