TT in SB facing CO ai and btn call

[TheSnapper]

[Chipaccrual]

PMSL


I"ve adjusted your payouts.  

[GarethC]

Since it"s all been done before let"s not go into the ranges and the chip EV calculations, it"s fairly obvious that this will be a +cEV call. In terms of whether it should be a fold despite calling being +cEV, I think not, since there"s not much point laddering from here, and losing the pot doesn"t vastly compromise your position or your $EV. Given the other stacks and the blinds, it will still be all to play for. Winning the pot puts you in an excellent position. Got to be a call.

[Swinebag]

aren"t blinds 8/16K and there are antes in play as well..

oh calling this off all day long FTW 5 handed with these stacks

[TheSnapper]

Is it a +cEV spot ?

Don"t be lazy Gareth c"mon you know the routine, range, equity yada yada  

It would be really nice to have some ICM perspective from some maths proficient guru.

[Marty719]

Since it"s all been done before let"s not go into the ranges and the chip EV calculations, it"s fairly obvious that this will be a +cEV call. In terms of whether it should be a fold despite calling being +cEV, I think not, since there"s not much point laddering from here, and losing the pot doesn"t vastly compromise your position or your $EV. Given the other stacks and the blinds, it will still be all to play for. Winning the pot puts you in an excellent position. Got to be a call.

Pretty much all this^^^esp with added value up top

[Swinebag]

I"m pretty sure there are numbers to be crunched here and an ICM calculation will say "fold" or "call". My gut says it will be close.

ICM doesn"t really come into this here because you don"t get into this spot enough times for the correct decision to benefit you in the long run.

However I quickly stoved
any pair, AT+ and KQ for C/o
88+ AT+ KJ+ for btn
and TT had about 37% equity (If I was sat down I"d have imagined about 40% to be honest)

This is enough for me to call off 40% of my stack to risk getting into the medals with  approx 70% of the chips in play and so much up top for winning.

But I think you just have to make these calls at the end of a tourney with shallow stacks if you are shooting for the win. I"d struggle to imagine better spots that would crop up.

These stacks dont allow for much 3 bet bluffing so you need to pick up hands and get them to hold. TT does the trick here for me

[GarethC]

Is it a +cEV spot ?

Yes.. trust me.

This was the ICM perspective:
"...there"s not much point laddering from here, and losing the pot doesn"t vastly compromise your position or your $EV."
That"s about as far as my ICM insight goes. I don"t have any program that can do the calculation and work out the actual numbers, and doing it by hand would take ridiculously long. Luckily it"s not really needed in this spot. It"s more useful for spots where you"re looking at calling off a large number of chips in a situation where it may be better to hold on until some of the smaller stacks have busted, since calling and losing would drastically reduce your $EV in the tournament and consequently vastly increase theirs, which is a disaster, while winning the pot doesn"t vastly increase the $EV you already have.
It appears to me that that"s not the case here. The stacks are all very close together, relative to the blinds/antes, and losing this pot just puts you back with the pack, where you still have almost the same $EV as the other similar stacks. Whoever wins the pot will have more, but the other stacks don"t gain much. While winning the pot shoots you to much higher $EV position.

[TheSnapper]

I"m pretty sure there are numbers to be crunched here and an ICM calculation will say "fold" or "call". My gut says it will be close.

ICM doesn"t really come into this here because you don"t get into this spot enough times for the correct decision to benefit you in the long run.

However I quickly stoved
any pair, AT+ and KQ for C/o
88+ AT+ KJ+ for btn
and TT had about 37% equity (If I was sat down I"d have imagined about 40% to be honest)

This is enough for me to call off 40% of my stack to risk getting into the medals with  approx 70% of the chips in play and so much up top for winning.

But I think you just have to make these calls at the end of a tourney with shallow stacks if you are shooting for the win. I"d struggle to imagine better spots that would crop up.

These stacks dont allow for much 3 bet bluffing so you need to pick up hands and get them to hold. TT does the trick here for me

You give a wider range for the tight btn to call ai than I would Rob, I was thinking something like TT+,AQs+,AQo+

[Chipaccrual]

I"m calling all day long here.  For a number of reasons :-

1) The Spaniards would make the call, and they are European and World Champions, so they know what they are doing.

2) The payout structure is set to go for the win.

3) I know Brendan"s view on this hand.  

[TheSnapper]

3) I know Brendan"s view on this hand.  

TBH Leigh, I posted this interesting spot* simply because I was sufficiently doubtful about my initial intuitive view as to the correct option. So actually, I don"t know Brendan"s view on the hand

*From the assured stance taken by Gareth, I suspect he thinks its not at all interesting and rather a trivial call.

[Chipaccrual]

3) I know Brendan"s view on this hand.  

TBH Leigh, I posted this interesting spot* simply because I was sufficiently doubtful about my initial intuitive view as to the correct option. So actually, I don"t know Brendan"s view on the hand

*From the assured stance taken by Gareth, I suspect he thinks its not at all interesting and rather a trivial call.

I actually think it"s a very interesting spot.  There"s a certain amount of emotion in the decision aswell, having watched most of the play before this point.

All joking aside, as I said to you at the time, I"m not sure I"m making the call, although I can understand the reasons the guys have given.

I used to be indecisive, now I"m not so sure.  I might have flipped a coin to make the decision, as I actually think it is that close a decision to make.


I don"t think that has helped in any way.   Usual from me then.  

[TheSnapper]

[Mikeyboy9361]

TBH, ICM amd Poker Stove aside, I am calling here, I hope that they each have one of each others outs, I am CL and even if I lose I am still very much in the game, if I win I am massive CL and would hope to TID from that position. Pocket 10"s five handed you are ahead most of the time, so call ! Thats the scientific view!

[Swinebag]

I"m pretty sure there are numbers to be crunched here and an ICM calculation will say "fold" or "call". My gut says it will be close.

ICM doesn"t really come into this here because you don"t get into this spot enough times for the correct decision to benefit you in the long run.

However I quickly stoved
any pair, AT+ and KQ for C/o
88+ AT+ KJ+ for btn
and TT had about 37% equity (If I was sat down I"d have imagined about 40% to be honest)

This is enough for me to call off 40% of my stack to risk getting into the medals with  approx 70% of the chips in play and so much up top for winning.

But I think you just have to make these calls at the end of a tourney with shallow stacks if you are shooting for the win. I"d struggle to imagine better spots that would crop up.

These stacks dont allow for much 3 bet bluffing so you need to pick up hands and get them to hold. TT does the trick here for me

You give a wider range for the tight btn to call ai than I would Rob, I was thinking something like TT+,AQs+,AQo+

It was maybe a bit wide for a tight player. I just took my calling range there and snipped a few more hands off. I just can"t imagine any player who has 10 bigs and is the short stack wanting to fold 99